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scottie57

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About scottie57

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  1. Take what you can get is going to get much worse soon. Accountants, Lawyers, Insurance and Real estate salesmen Live of the fat when life is good. When life is bad no one wants them, needs them or can afford the pretentious salarys they expect. Burger flipper at least provide hot food. The paper type professions will starve soon.
  2. Irish property prices have officially dropped a lot less than Uk house prices I think about 10-12 % in the last year. 18 months ago or so I posted on the Irish property crash site that UK prices would faster than Irish although they started falling later, this has happened. The Irish correction will end up Just as bad as UK or worse.Down eventually 50=70 % I thought originally 40% and posted this two years ago On Irish property crash site. What next. Nothing much will change ,a slow decline for another 4 or 5 years. Everything is much more controlled by insiders in Ireland than in the UK. Banks and Big Business are tightly restrained by government pressure. No great volumes of repossessions or auctions of cheap houses etc have happened even though defaults are on a faily large scale. Its all being swept under the carpet In the hope that Santa will somehow appear and solve the problems. Not going to happen. Ireland and Spain are in the same boat(official house falls are 5% over the year in Spain) Believe that if you must. Both Governments are in Denial. Cuts to Public services, Wages, hospitals , transport, police will go on piece by piece for years. Never enough to solve anything, but just enough to pospone disaster for a few more months and so it will continue for years. Poverty will spread and problems both financial and civil will increase . Will Ireland be any better or worse off than the rest of the established economies who knows. All we know is that the good times are gone. Will they ever return who knows but as the old bible says expect at least 7 lean years Irelands had the 7 good ones.
  3. My bother who works for the government stated he was going to get a good pension. I pointed it it was only a promise therer is no certainties in life and even if it did finally get paid. There was no guarantee that it would buy anything. The UK government has no more money period. It cannot pay what was promised. It will at least cancel index linking and even worse may be told by the IMF if it has funds to help Bail out the UK which is not certain either to cut all pensions and salarys drastically. Good pensions are history if you think it cannot happen Look at Russia admitably a poor example but pensions were paid regulary ther for 60 yrs and suddenly they were worthless.
  4. Probably right we will have a total collapse. It will not be instant except in the financial sense. Banks closing massive unemployment quickly O.k thats realistic ,but for most people there will still be work. Its hard to close a lot of things Goverments. hospitals etc cannot shut down overnight but government salerys and pensions will gradually be worth less and less.Lots of small businesses will struggle along for years earning little or no money and still hoping for a change untill their owners run out of funds.People do not give in easily especially when theres nothing else available. Its not instant never will be, More of a long decline with sudden drops along the way. Look at Zimbabwe they have been bunkrupt for years but life goes on even if at a very poor level.
  5. California at least can measure its budget deficit Can the US , Uk or a bunch of Governments local or national even understand where they are, let alone count how much thay owe. California is just the first carriage in a long train of goverment failures. No pensions, medical care cut back,no unemployment or welfare ,the list will go on for ever.Government Revenues are dropping all round the world drastically. My brother who is a civil servant yrs ago said he had a solid job and a good pension. My reply is that he has a promise of a pension and even if he gets it. It might not buy anything. Its indexed linled but so were GM pensions up to last week. We are going to get hyperinflation shortly which might mask things for a while. Its finished regardless all govenments will go bust or shrink payments to the meaningless level.
  6. Russian and USSR space programs were one of the main drivers of both economies at one point before being sidelined by goverments that thought social programs were better. Trouble with scocial programs is that they are like eating your seed corn, They provide nothing for the future. Most of our great industrial expansions were before any social programs. Government and the poor will always want more ,and produce nothing.
  7. The way out of this recession is dissappearing fast .The door is closing quickley. Wars end recessions but thats not a really a viable route, at least not this week. We have to manufacture and create jobs and confidence. We cannot manufacture to sell,no ones buying and not likely to be buying in the near future. Bailing out Banks. Increasing social services,building infrastructure,investing in green technology,does little to nothing ,just uses up accumulated capital of the world economies not just financial. All the other things too, infrastructure, educational ability etc all will decline slowly from lack of incentive to repair or money. Whos going to study for a good job when theres none.Where is the money coming from to build new things which no one will use. Just surviving and eating will be a problem ,Gradually all economies will decline. If they do not expand they will collapse slowly. There is one way out and one only . The nation that throws everything into that direction is the one that will prosper. Build for space ,returns on expenditure will be a long time in coming if any but if you succeed and moneys to be made as well there might be, you will create a new industrial economy. Not only will you stimulate your own economy you will stimulate every other industrial nation as it will be keep up or die as an industrial power. The solution is there, which country is going first.
  8. There are no experts left.Whats the point of predicting anything in this maket. No one knows. Its a long dark tunnel were entering. Whats at the end of it, just take your pick your guess isn as good as anyones at this point. Could be a disaster.Could just be an adjustment to poorer living. Unlikely a return to normal.Possibly a slow collapse of what we call civilization. Takes a long time for countries to fall apart ,excepting war, a decline could strech out 10-20 yrs before a bottom is reached if that what youd call it then.
  9. Try getting into a hospital in a few years, Even now its often who you know. When the money runs out it willbe the doctor you pay off. Many societies today have large black markets
  10. My brother a civil servant boasted to me about his good pension when it comes. I pointed out several years agop before the current mess that it was only a promise.There is no guarantee it will be paid, and even if it is theres still no guarantee it will buy anything. Goverments can run out of money very fast ,scap indexing do in fact anything the want, Increasing taxes in this type of recession does not work. People stop buying or go to the black market. No Vat,work under the table, Might only be a small % of economic activity at present but could explode if taxes rise. Government revenues are falling drastically and its going to get a lot worse. Income and company taxes are dropping fast . Its getting minimal stamp duty,No capital gains tax ( probably paying a lot of previous Capital gains taxes back) and VAT is dropping drastically ,just to mention a few sources of goverment revenue. At this stage increasing taxes, I would say will not work. Too many people and companies have financial problems and just cannot or will not pay knowing collection systems are failing due to the number of debtors rising very fast. You cannot take everyone to court and even if you win in court it could still take years to collect.. Just watch local governments property taxes drop ,regardless of any increase they try to impose. People will delay paying income and property taxes where they can and walk away from negative equity houses and credit cards after living there as long as they can without paying anything to anyone. Its finished the system will slowly collapse. No need to pay anything anymore keep it in your pocket run your debts to the limit and just wait and when the ship finally sinks have something left to keep you afloat. Could be days or months not years.
  11. 90 % is quite possible in lots of areas. If the depression progresses to a certain stage ,large parts of the cities will be poor,unemployed ,off welfare ( no more government money for welfare or civil servants salaries or pensions) not pay taxes and be generally ungovernable ,so property in these areas will be of little value except to the local gang leaders or whatever. Some areas will still retain a value but even these areas will be under siege by the poorer members of society. Not possible ,Never happen ,think of Detroit as someone already mentioned. Thats just one city that collapsed in a good economy. Imagine what a collapsed economy might do it will not be just one city could be all of them.
  12. Probably about 5 yrs of slow decline .Economies tend to die quite slowly. As for people keeping their jobs. Do not bet on it too much. In the last depression 1929, economies were at a much more agricultural level than now. Now we are a consumer society everyone sells to each other lawers, contractors, accountants etc and all of the retail businesses. Thats a lot more than 50% of your economy. Then theres government type work. With tax returns to governments of all types dropping sharply. how secure is that area.. How much of that will vanish no one really knows but I think your looking at about a 25% unemployment rate and a lot of that is in the higher paid paper professions.
  13. Its been obvious to me for years that Japan was the most vunerable of the worlds major economies . It simply needs to sell a larger proportion of its national output than any other country. The US only imports or exports around 10 % of its economy. I dont know what % of Japans economy is exports, but its way up there. When the rest of the world stops buying Japan is in instant trouble. no matter what savings it has. Its been heading for problems generally for years. Japans technology was great, but first, the Koreans then the Chinese and a bunch of other Asian countries started making the same things with almost the same quality. The gap has been narrowing for years and even without the crash problems were coming. 5- 10 yrs from now the Chinese are going to wipe out the Japanese car industry. Prices will be way cheaper and the quality will be there . Japan is still ahead in lots of areas ,but in volume products to export, it was almost over anyway. As for the West the average middle class family wastes $300- 400 per week in non essential products in supermakets video games and eating out. Watch that stop rapidly as people get more frightened. We are a consumer society 50 % all our jobs depend on people buying and selling things.We really do not need to buy all that much. As for Lawyers Accountants, Stockbrokers, Insurance salesmen and the other paper men.They are simply surplus to requirements in a real recession ,well most of them anyway. If we chose we can even cut our weekly food bill in half. Some people will still have money to spend non essentials, but not enough. As for the civil service and government workers. You have all been promised nice pensions. Govenments may well have no money to pay and even if you do get the money theres no guarantee that it will buy anything.
  14. Canada. Lots of space Its banks are doing just fine Housing Market slowing but not collapsing so far. Plenty of Food , Nearly as much oil as Saudi Lots of Hydro power. Plenty of surplus water to sell,,Enough Industry to be self sufficient .No problems with Global warming. Top of Quality of life index.Will have some problems with the neighbour but should be fine in the long term.
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