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House Price Crash Forum

Brian Potter

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Everything posted by Brian Potter

  1. I personally agree with this. The treatment may be so severe it may kill the patient. In the early 90's the recession that accompanied the crash was terrible for those affected. Not all were greedy BTL idiots. Most were normal people who lost their jobs and had no way of paying the bills without income. My family was seriously affected, and to be frank, never really recovered from the hardship of the early 90's. My father and myself were employed by major construction firms (not housing) and the market stopped dead. It took 4 years, a degree and a dose of luck to finally get back on my feet with a young family. My father never really recovered though and years later he has a resigned acceptance that he will be poor in old age. I am now in a position where my partner and myself are consultants in the construction industry. We live relatively well and save probably 40% of our salary a year. We have saved well into 6 figures in the last 5 years - however, that fear will never leave you and I would not wish that on anyone else. I too want a correction in prices because I want my daughter to have in chance in years to come. To wish for economic meltdown is folly. You must be very rich/very stupid/In a cast iron job to wish for this. It may well happen but its my belief that house prices will be the least of your worries.
  2. Bingo! The credit tightening will bring prices back to realistic levels, because: Prices are dictated by the supply and the ability to pay. If people cant borrow stupid multiples - then they cant pay silly prices - therefore the vendor takes it off the market or drops the price to attract a buyer. Simple really.
  3. Most are Sto render (a coloured system on insulated boards which may resemble paint) and the timber is usually Cedar which does not need finishing. I agree they look crap and have commented as such on the £300m+ residential schemes I have been involved in over the past 4 years. BTW I will be involved with a minimum of £70m of these new build flats in the north west over the next 2 years from now. ALL are sold, off plan, to major foreign investors and banks. As to who will live in them .....Pass.
  4. As a casulaty of the early nineties recession I totally agree with this. Whilst I lived at home at the time, others were not so fortunate. Some people are plain stupid with money but some are just desperate.
  5. Maybe you should Ask Elvis for his house price predictions. Thannoo vurry much!
  6. I agree, and have said so on previous threads. The state sector pensions are totally unsustainable. When (and it is when, not if) the government finally has to act there will be blood on the streets. They will start with LA workers, then teachers, then NHS workers and finish up with the Police and armed services - this is because they will be needed to sort out the inevitable unrest.
  7. Land is at a premium because of scarcity due to planning resrictions or economic viability. Increasingly, smaller developers are entering the market. The number of small builders that now develop is massive. I know because I work freelance in this circle in the north west. Most land parcels are only viable as flats or high density dwellings. The costs associated mean that to make a reasonable profit a developer cannot sell units below around £120K depending on area (obviously a lot more in London). There is no let up in the flat builds. I work for a developer who has 5 schemes about to start and 4 are fully sold before we put a bucket in the ground - I jest not. All are being bought by large finacial organisations or large investors from Ireland. It still amazes me.
  8. because governments of all persuations over the last 50 years have allowed it to happen. It was exactly the same in the early 90's. I was made redundant in the early 90's. Qualified and desperate to work. Imagine being stood in a queue with a life long doley who has a council house, free school meals for his kids, council tax paid etc. getting changed out of his 'work' gear in the queue to sign on. The state encourages wasters to cheat the system and until you have seen it first hand you have no idea how rampant it is.
  9. However, if I recall, the selling off of the nations council house stock was a tory move which now leaves us with a shortage of cheap housing in cities like london, thus facilitating the need for schemes like this. I'm not a Nu labour-ite but the world did exist before 1997.
  10. Nope. I was a trainee Engineer in the construction industry. The early 90's recession was the worst since the 30's for construction. Returned to uni and finally re-established myself in 1995. Now run a small consultantcy with my wife (a civil engineer). In the early 90's high interest rates crippled industry and coupled with a cut in public spending on infrastructure projects the construction industry literally nearly ground to a halt.
  11. As a major casualty of the last tory govt, I beg to differ. I have no particular political allegiance, however, misty eyed nostagia of the tory years definately depends on your experience. The economy was decimated in the early 90's and this was only 10 years after the previous recession. Mrs T had many good ideas, not least curbing the unions idiotic power, but unfortunately the party was a disorganised, back-biting shambles by the early 90's and this was plain for those of us who were on the receiving end.
  12. Many modern properties are a mixture of prefab and traditional. Timber framed homes are widely constructed with only the final fit out and external skin being built insitu. Most barratt type houses are of a generic design which can be constructed relatively cheaply. Having looked at building my own house, the prohibitive cost, as previously suggested, is the land. I have found that the cost of land, materials, labour and taxes very rarely adds up to the sum of its parts and in my view is not worth it.
  13. I said the same thing to the misses, but believe me, some people are absolutely up to the tits.
  14. Same here with my limited edition Gibson Gary Moore Signature Les Paul Standard.
  15. I personally would consider renting. I want to move to a larger house but frankly if the prices stay high I would consider renting myself. Not having a huge mortgage millstone around the neck has a lot to be said for it.
  16. Manchester is coming to a head like a ripe boil. Stand back, it could be messy.
  17. Ah, if only this also wasn't the case under the tories. I got made redundant in 91. Myself and my girlfriend went back to Uni to make the most of our time during the recession. My girlfriend fell pregnant. Sh*t happens, our responsibility and we got to grips with the situation, but let me assure you the welfare state does NOT encourage tryers. We got by in spite of the Welfare state. If we had both just given up we would have had a house and council tax paid. We did have to bend the rules to carry on in education but since we now both earn significant salaries, we have more than paid back any benefit we received from the state. I feel no shame in this because the alternative was to sink into the welfare state mire. It is, and always has been, geared to keep people in a rut.
  18. Edgeworth, Lostock and Heaton have always been the best areas. I know developers who are trying to shift converted barns/school houses for nearly £1m. Strewth. I agree about the wages and unsustainability. Where are people getting the cash from?
  19. Nutters. Joking aside, some of the prices for 4/5 bed houses in bolton rival those I have seen in the South. We know we are fortunate to be earning (relatively) good money, so it comes as a constant surprise when people earning far less manage to buy houses at ridiculas prices. Maybe Im over cautious but I've seen it all before. Just keep banking.
  20. Partner and myself. both degree qualified (irrelevant IMO, experience much more important), self employed consultants in construction. Joint income £105K. Present house three bed mews in Bolton in pleasant location. In my view our income should buy 5 bed, character house (not barratt) or barn conversion in my area. F**k that at present prices.
  21. I agree. The only hope is that inflation starts to question peoples ability to pay and the banks get jittery as a result. I remember the recession of the early 90's where banks were widely criticised for their lending. If it takes a full blown recession to correct house prices, then all I can say is be careful what you wish for. Its akin to having your head chopped off because of toothache. The job losses which occured coupled with house prices diving left many in negative equiity. I was a casualty of the last serious recession, and although I did not hold property, it was a dreadful time for my family. Thats why I would not wish for a recession.
  22. I tend to agree with this view. Some people act as if the housing boom is a government policy. It is no more a policy than it was in 1990. The market is a consequence of many factors, not least lax lending criterea. If banks lent on traditional criterea then the market would have had to come into line. At the moment the credit is matching the price and therfore driving it up. It is a bit like 'buy this 3 piece suite on interest free for £50 per month',. The fact that the suite is not worth the total price is never considered. All types of products are bought on this basis now, from cars to windows. The mortgage market is just the latest - if you need an example - Interest only mortgages. If ever there was a case of the market being propped up because of its inaffordability, then this is it. Banks in their race for market share are creating a market which is artificially high.
  23. Blackpool - loads and loads of poles, latvians, lithuanians etc running the pleasure beach, chippies and arcades. Even in my local pie shop the staff are speaking with a strong east european twang.
  24. The next phase of new build started on our estate after a gap of 3 years. Surprisingly, 5 properties were reserved in the first morning. I say this is surprising because properties on the rest of the estate are definately having trouble finding buyers. This new phase, in an inferior position near a motorway, are approximately £100k more than they were 4 years ago when we bought. I dont get it.
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