Brian Potter

Not all developers/builders are skint. I worked for a family outfit in Yorkshire in the 90's. All a recession meant to them was cheap staff and cheap land. Opportunities will be around for developers to buy at knock-down prices and moth ball untill the recovery. It all dependes on gearing. FWIW. We are already in recession in construction. It has happened at warp speed and will spread through the economy like a rash. Construction is usually the first casualty in a recession - this was the case in 1990. I would love to know who is going to buy all this lovely cheap housing when we are all down the dole office. Oh, it must be bank and IT workers....

I agree. The only things keeping the industry going in any way are the public sector schemes such as schools, health centres etc. If it were not for these schemes this would already be worse than the crisis in the early 90's - and that was terrible in construction.

Construction firms in the north west (not housing) are laying off large numbers. Commercial building also in a rut. Lots of contracts coming to an end - none starting. The construction industry is already in recession IMO. I see lean times ahead in my industry.

Anecdotally, as a small one man band consultant in the north-west with several clients, I can tell you that the construction industry (not just house building) is crashing quicker than I have ever witnessed at the moment. Only strong public sector work is preventing a total crash in the sector. Work is getting harder to come by and I know of three major contractors in the region who are laying off large numbers of staff. Tenders for new work are still coming in but the industry is starting to cut each others throats to win work. I suspect I will be only working 2-3 days a week in the not too distant future.

Totally agree. And we will be re-creating the high rise sh*t holes of the 60's all over again. I already know of some 'Luxury' flats where desperation for rents has allowed in some very undesirable types and the resultant urine smelling, vandalised lifts are most off-putting for the urban professional.

Honestly, you are the first I have heard to say anything positive about the Beetham Towers looks - in either Liverpool or Manchester.

I have worked on many of these schemes in Liverpool as well as Manchester and to say sales are disasterous would be an understatement.

I have worked on many of these schemes in Liverpool as well as Manchester and to say sales are disasterous would be an understatement.

I do work for developers and main contractors in the north-west. Banks are pulling the plug on schemes left and right. They will bankrupt a lot of subbies/consultants in the process. I am owed a fair sum by one such developer. It would not send me under if I didnt get paid but I know some subbies who are owed £500K. It really is starting to look bad.

mine

40 yo bedroom wannabee rock god. Gibson Gary Moore signature Les paul with 100w Marshall combo. (Also got v. rare Charvel Surfcaster with orange flamed maple top - 1991)

Stonethecrows. Are you a QS? Its pretty unusual to have construction industry professionals on here. Most people on here think House builders/developers are the same as main contractors. i am a consultant in the industry and getting paid can be a work of art - as you clearly know.

Very cheery.

You are spot on imho. Exactly the same in my area. Land prices for plots with planning permission are laughably high. The land/build/fees cost has to be less than the sum of its parts or its simply not worth the hassle.

Can't speak for London, however, the mainstay of development in the north west seems to be public sector work. I know of big commercial schemes being shelved. London is a different story - the Olympics will drive demand in the area for a while. I can't believe how quickly the industry has down-turned in the last few months. Lots of projects coming to an end with no new ones to replace them.

Trust me on this. Construction of all kinds is being shelved. I am now scratching around for work as a freelance consultant in the NW. flat builds have been shelved by banks - even in mid construction. Good job I saved 6 figures in the good years. Could be bye bye Britain.

This is precisely what I have done. Great if you pay 40% tax. Nearly 100% of the monthly mortgage payments come off the principal sum and I am safe in the knowledge I can pay off the mortgage at any time. Also in theory it does not matter what the mortgage rate is.

Taking cover prices is as old as the hills and is not necessarily cartell activity. It usually occurs when a tenderer is too busy to price a scheme but does not want to return the tender in case they are excluded from future bids. Not strictly legit but not as bad as people think as there are generally 4-6 tenderers, nearly all of which will be actively tendering. Anyway, construction is feeling this crunch hard and it will not be long before big job losses filter through. My work is already affected and conversations in the industry reveal work is being canned everywhere.

I agree. She's the weakest on 5 live during the day.

Mr Parry please educated me. If I go to say Dubai as a freelancer - how does the EGS affect my payment status?

I work in construction and so I think I have a very good angle on things. Here what I have noticed: 1: Manchester's flat build is stalled. Most new schemes are moth-balled and even some that have started are being pulled by the funders. This is causing major problems getting work rolling. 2: Tradesmen, ie. joiners and brickies , turning up on site asking for work. I have not seen this for 10 years. 3. My work (as a consultant) is seriously starting to suffer. Less and less about. 4. Reports from collegues at major contractors (not housebuilders - there is a difference) that they are tendering hard to get work in. 5. In the local JJB yesterday to get some trainers. Usually you end up tearing your hair out waiting to get an assistants attention for a 'size ten in these, mate.' but I was the only one in at 1.30pm on a Saturday. 6. Up-market local pub eatery - moderatly busy but not like it was in late January. Could have walked in and got a seat. The construction industry is starting to rely on infrastructure/public sector projects, which is a relief really as in the early 90's everything stopped. I have plenty in the bank and so I am not panicking as yet, however, a recession really is a nasty thing if your a victim.

I have said this before. You just get flamed. As I have said, if you have no income and you are concentrating on feeding the family - you wont give a toss about houseprices. The HPC is happening. Tight mortgages will see to that. We (I) just dont want an armageddon.

Touche. As a victim of the last recession (labour no where in sight) I can concur that the tories were just as big a waste of space. True blue coloured specs dont see the fact that Thatcher thought we could all work in a fecking bank - yes, the same banks that lent silly sums and landed us in the shite. If you think the tories would have been any different in the last 10 years you are sadly deluded. I'm not a labour-ite but I can at least recognise they are now all the feckin same! I dislike Brown intensly but I cannot believe the party bull that is displayed on here. The tories are a feckin shambles - if they were any good I'd have voted for em. Probably get flamed now but I dont care cos Im watching corrie - Gail's getting her memory back and David is fecked.

I know more than most about flats in Manchester - because as a construction consultant I have worked on literally thousands. Flats in Ancoats which were underway are on ice. This is primarily due to banks pulling finance. Re-financing is difficult if not impossible even with 100% sales and deposits in hand - Seriously! The main drivers behind this boom over a least the last couple of years has been foreign (usually Irish) money. They buy off developers en-bloc and then find private buyers. I thought the writing was on the wall in 2003 as I have never seen as many tower cranes in the city - all building flats. It was clearly a case of future over supply. It pains me to be right as this has been a large part of my living over the years, but it was all too obvious for anyone with common sense. IMHO the prices of flats just outside the city centre ie Ancoats, the green quarter, Salford etc will be halved in value. Many I believe will be off-loaded at mega knock down prices to housing associations and the like. Where we were knocking down tower blocks of inner city slums in the 90's, so we have re-built the high rise slums of tomorrow in the last 5 years.

You've missed your vocation Basil. Not saying your wrong obviously printing money uncontrollably to buy yourself out of the problem will result in what you say. I just dont see the alternative to providing liquidity. Bringing the Banking system down would be catastrophic. And guess what - The perpetrators are flame proof. Distasteful but true. The way forward in my view is to make credit available in return for a wide range of assets put up as collateral with the central banks, with a proviso that the money is not hoarded and used to kick start lending. This, I believe, is what the BoE is proposing. BTW - what ever happened to - Time to Raise the Rents. Some of you old timers may remember him.