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Everything posted by JimDiGritz

  1. http://www.jwbassociates.tv/articles/how-to-create-a-powder-keg-society.htm A blog entry that tried to look behind the riots last month.. I found it whilst looking at jobs!! How to create a powder keg society. Step 1. Turn it up a notch. Show super-models popping open £500 bottles of French champaign in the cabin of a £30Mil private Jet. Put it to music, play it 20 times a day and churn out a gratuitous new clip every week. Stir this into poor societies until they truly believe the Ultra-High Net-Worth lifestyle is attainable and quite normal. Step 2. Remove all entry-level jobs. Replace music stores with iTunes. Replace the book stares with Amazon. Replace the Grocery Checkout with a Self-Check System. Allow people to but tickets to the movies from a touch-screen. Send call center jobs to Manila. Don't leave a single entry level job in sight, don't let people get a foot on the ladder. Then flood the market with low skilled overseas labour. Make it risky and expensive for businesses to hire people. Raise the retirement age and get older workers to compete for jobs they used to do at the beginning of their working days. Step 3. Educate people for a job market that doesn't exist anymore Make sure student's learn skills relevant to the industrial revolution workplace. Reward them for reading text books and remembering facts, punish them for finding the answers by Googling it on their Blackberry. Reward them for good consistent results across all subjects. Punish them for being outstanding in one area. Make them feel smart when they are the smartest in the class. Make them feel stupid for getting the smartest kid in the class to tell you the answer. Ensure they expect to be given a job and a career just because they get good grades. Don't tell them that the world most successful people create there own jobs. Step 4. Normalise violence Make violent movies, violent games and violent sports. Market them with budgets that exceed the GDP of some countries. Show news 24hours and show scenes of aggression and war all day and night. Hand out free papers with reports of misery, victimisation, hatred and abuse. Make it "un-newsworthy" when someone does something great. Don't show examples of people who help each other, people running good small businesses, people who build society up. Step 5. Turn the establishment into an enemy Tear shreds off political figures until no-one in their right mind would want to get involved in the political process. Mock every initiative the Government tries to launch as "not enough", "not perfect" and "too late". Beat up politicians who dare to tell the truth or to think up a long term plan. Make "the rich" into the enemy. Don't tell people that without many of "the rich" most of "the jobs" wouldn't exist. Don't tell people that "the rich" have all sorts of challenges to deal with day-to-day and don't just sit around on their yachts. Don't give any credit to "the rich" for paying over half the taxes and generating most of the exports. With these five ingredients you can bake up the perfect explosive mix of youths who are ready to riot at a moments notice. Simply equip them with cloud-based messaging systems and high tech mobile hardware and you are ready to rumble. He/she forgot to include high house prices, but not a bad summation of the UK at the moment!!!
  2. ****** off. I've been through this, and so has my father when I was growing up. We cut back, sold houses, sold possessions, drew up budgets and got on with it. At no point did either of us even remotely consider that weekly cinema visits, riding lessons or having a cleaner were appropriate. ****** this family with their ******** middle class affectations. “It Ain’t How Hard You Hit…It’s How Hard You Can Get Hit and Keep Moving Forward” - Rocky Balboa.
  3. In the summer of 1939 the estimated population of Great Britain (ie. England, Wales and Scotland) was 46,467,000 (46 Million 467 Thousand). Today it stands around 62 Million. In 1939 we were a nation of make do and mend. Our food chain was local, with virtually zero food miles for the staples of wheat, milk and eggs. Today we have a highly efficient food industry which operates on the basis of comparative advantage - it is more efficient to grow corn fed meat in Argentina and import it than to have beef cows grazing in Sussex. This system has taken decades to refine and can be modelled in an incredibly detailed way. It is baked into our financial system, our retail system and our middle class psyche. If you believe that this highly complex and vulnerable system (which has NO inherent safeguards against a black swan event) can ride out a complete financial shutdown, or a massive oil supply shock, then you are drinking the kool aid.
  4. Back in the day in 2008 I remember the PPT would rally the DJIA every afternoon after a drop of 2-3% All the ammo is spent. **To be fair I remember the VIX hitting 50 something at the worst of the 2008 Lehmans/TARP crisis, so we are a way off yet...
  5. VIX now up a staggering 33% This isn't going to end well. QE3 is imminent.
  6. Instead of a top down monolithic system, a federated publish/subscribe data model would have allowed them to focus on process and results rather than technology.
  7. I appreciate that this isn't your point however the average income in Teignmouth (2010) is £32,392**. 3.5 x £32,392 is £113,372. As an "above average" house this should be on the market for £180,000 - £200,000 Still a way to go my friend. ** http://www.peoplesrepublicofsouthdevon.co.uk/2010/01/27/whats-the-average-income-in-your-area-in-devon-figures-revealed/
  8. It definitely wouldn't have been Obama... I mean that would make him a.....
  9. A compromise deal will be reached on Sunday (today) Monday will be a global bonanza for the equities markets. All major indices up 2%+ Gold/Silver will drop 2-3% Maybe by Tuesday the bond markets and ratings agencies will start to price in the inevitable QE3 and then markets resume their slide. My 2p's worth. Jim
  10. I think you might have missed my OP. We can't get in to Canada. To be fair my point stands, the fact that people could move to Vancouver and decide it wasn't as good as the UK is testament to the fact that some people just can't be pleased.
  11. Fair enough. That said friends of ours emigrated to Vancouver. Bought a house and got a well paying job. They couldn't stop bitching and moaning about how it this or that wasn't as good as England. Within 6 months they were back in Blighty and he was back at his old job. Vancouver is a fantastic city with low crime and clean streets, and is regularly voted in the top 3 cities to live in in the world.... Each to their own. I take peoples points about Ireland having issues. Frankly I'd rather live in a fully paid for house with land and have a few issues than paying rent or borrowing £250,000 for the pleasure of a bunch of different issues here in the UK. DotBomb. Sadly smallholdings and property with land here in the UK (even in the North) will be in excess of £150k. We would be lucky to buy a double-wide park home on a postage stamp in Cumbria for £50k. I mean even in the shit chav infested, fight at the bus stop every Friday and Saturday night street in Doncaster that my mum lives on they are selling 2 bed terraced houses with no garden for £70k. ****** that noise. I'm considering this with my eyes open, but the lure of owning something outright is getting strong.
  12. We are in Cork and Limerick next week viewing c. 15 properties. All of the auctioneers are saying the same thing. Make an offer, any offer.
  13. Thanks for that, well worth highlighting. Broadband is a key issue, I'm struggling to find a foolproof way to check whether a property will get DSL, or even if the local exchange is upgraded to DSL... Food - our plans have always been to grow some staple foods and keep chickens and maybe a family cow. Of course we would still need to buy groceries, so this is a valid point. My wife grew up on a farm, and we both have spent quite a lot of time with a local organic farmer who has been completely self sufficient for the past decade. Medical benefits - I didn't know this. I believed that whilst the GP is €50 a visit, A&E is free. If this is the case then we were budgeting to keep our critical illness insurance (legacy of our mortgage days), which is £180pcm - I'm thinking that we could easily switch this to a basic family medical plan...
  14. This thread is really focussed on the macro-economic picture outlook rather than investments/house prices specifically, however mods feel free to move it if you think it should live somewhere else. Background We are a young family who STR in 2009 (just got out in time), we have a £70k STR fund with 30% in gold/silver and the balance in ISA's and cash. Our medium term plan has always been to downshift and buy a self-reliant property with minimal bills and then continue working on a part-time basis on a handful of projects via the internet. The UK... Whilst I do believe that we will see a return to 1998 house & land prices, I think that the government will delay this for at least another few years. Even then I believe that the relative scarcity of rural property will always keep them out of our reach. Overseas.. I speak a smattering of French, German and Italian but frankly would struggle to hold a basic conversation let alone live in a foreign country. I believe I am being pragmatic rather than small minded when I discount non-english speaking countries. NZ & Oz are really just too far, and whilst we have family in Canada the immigration criteria have tightened significantly over the past few years, plus their HPC hasn't even started yet. Ireland... We started to look at rural property in Ireland (concentrating on the Munster region, Co. Cork specifically) and have found a fair few 3 bed cottages on an acre or two, requiring cosmetic work and/or modernisation reduced from c.€150,000 to €50-60,000. As an example one we have had our eye on was reduced to €50,000 from €160,000 and is just about to be bought from the bank for €40,200.... I expect that spending €20,000 would bring them up to a decent finish with quality insulation and solid fuel heating etc. So.... The question! I think that we are seeing the race to the bottom between GBP, USD and the EUR. If you were in my position would you gamble and wait on the possibility that the EUR/GBP heads in the right direction or even hold off until Ireland reverts to the Punt at a significant devalued ratio? Or would you jump in now? Thanks! Jim
  15. Well.... I guess I am esteemed company... I miss-called it... It was by no definition a "black day". However gold did break through $1600/£1000 and the average euro equity index lost 1%. and Sterling dropped against every major currency. I'm hanging on to my sterling STR fund in the vain hope that it rallies against the € and I can get an even better deal on my Co. Cork smallholding....
  16. A run on USD and Euro denominated debt. Sterling & gilts lags behind. Gold shoots through £1000/oz and $1600/oz Post stress test banks get hammered due to their massive exposure to eurozone debt. Major indices plummet 5%. HOWEVER Bernanke et al will start openly talking about QE3 plans and the markets will rally. Or maybe we just get more headlines about Murdoch....
  17. Respect. I have STR in 2009, quit my similar paying job and am busy working on some freelance projects to get some final money together. Then me and the family are going to buy a smallholding in rural ireland with cash and get on with life. ****** this noise.
  18. c.£100pcm 2 bed terrace. Gas heating and cooker. Don't ask me why it's so much... we put the heating on maybe 10 days a year, and cook once a day. PS The leccy is even more... don't get me started....
  19. I second Erranta for our official spokesperson. Hold on... E R R A N T A = 5 18 18 1 14 20 1 5+18+18+1+14+20+1 = 77 77 - 13 (the number of the lost ancient tribes [pointless link here] ) = 64 64 reversed is 46 Spooky...
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