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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by JimDiGritz

  1. A very compelling narrative, but one that doesn't bear up to scrutiny http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8697 Figure 16: Aggregate oil production from Alaska’s North Slope and the Bakken (Source: EIA and the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources) My view is that cheap oil is finished. We may very well see oil prices decline, but it will be against a massively deflationary backdrop where affordability makes oil more expensive than ever.
  2. Yeah I also got tired of reading how each city offered a great rental yield opportunity... just what young people emigrating want... Written by a BTL boomer no doubt.
  3. My local (village) garage has Diesel up for 148.9p Almost crashed when I saw it.
  4. The problem with this so called Midas Formula is that institutions which have hedged their bets both ways (c.20pc of all CDS contracts?) quite possibly won't be able to collect on their winning bets. This means that they can't pay their losing bets, so the other participants also default on their bets. This happened in 2008 with Lehman, AIG & Goldman Sachs and we all know that the US taxpayer ended up bailing out GS. If this happens again on sovereign debt, the contagion to other markets triggers defaults across the global banking industry. Just look at MF Global, they hedged their CDS bets, but still came unstuck because the ISDA didn't acknowledge that there had been a credit event. So I respectfully disagree with you, and am positive you posted the above tongue in cheek... "the whole thing is a marvel to behold", "skillfully crafted financial instrumentational process", "regulated tightly by Basel Bankers"
  5. Then maybe I'm missing the obvious here... I'm making a distinction between saving and investing based purely on risk. My point is simply that 20 years ago, to maintain the value of your money all you had to do was put it in a basic savings account. There was no need to take any risk, invest or speculate. Today, with negative real returns for savers (especially top rate tax payers), to build up a deposit requires a switch into investing or speculating which has an inherent risk. I agree that most people seem to be aimlessly piling into investments and speculation without a clear understanding of their objectives, however I guess I have just made a simple point badly.
  6. No, I'm pointing out that the lack of real saving vehicles means that people are having to speculate.
  7. To be fair ZIRP has meant that savers are being forced into risky asset classes (shares) or safe havens (Gold). I remember 12 years ago getting over 5% in my ING savers account.
  8. Oddly (!) the DT have removed this blog entry from the homepage and replaced it with an older one!.. Maybe the negative comments upset someone..
  9. How to get on the property ladder before you hit 30 Lots of HPC comments starting to filter through into the MSM.. come and join the party!
  10. I love the way the 'funded' part is in inverted commas. Everyone knows that the counterparties providing this cover aren't going to be able to make good on $2.3B....
  11. You are right, however our current agribusiness model (as just one example) is both unsustainable and delicate. The extrapolation of comparative advantage globally has meant that we have incredibly long and delicate supply chains which might deliver cheap food (now) but have no resiliency to systemic shocks or black swans. Frankly the entire global corporatist system is great at efficiency and profit, but is fragile and damaging to humanity and the environment. Our generation may just have to take one for the team and give our kids a more sustainable and equitable future.
  12. I must admit, this is getting ******ing tedious. I predict no fundamental changes to our fiscal/monetary system until well into 2012. ****** this noise.
  13. 100% Agree, Giving up your liberty for the .0000001% chance that you will be affected by terrorism is laughable.
  14. Nononono you've forgotten that British Banks... [1] Are fully Basel II & III compliant, and have passed every stress test [2] Have masses of tier 1 capital and are more than capable of handling such a small market event [3] Are fully hedged with Credit Default Swaps [4] Are run by the brightest and the best Now sleep tight.
  15. Ok. It is a ridiculous sum for the house. However I must say a few words in it's defence... since I know the area very well. 1. Location. Compton is a beautiful village near the A3. Down Lane is secluded and peaceful. I doubt this is much more than twice the village average. 10 mins from Guildford, 40mins drive/train from London. 2. Land. 32 acres!!!! Okay, it's still £30k an acre assuming the house is only worth a couple of hundred grand. But I would be shocked if you can find substantial land in this part of Surrey for that kind of money. 3. Converted barns can be really nice, and are probably much better quality than most Barrett rabbit hutches. If this was £245,000 with a dozen acres I would be seriously considering this. FWIW this has been on the market for at least a year at that price, so it is obviously overpriced.
  16. Define successful? (not successfull btw) Surely if your assertion is correct then the boomers inherited a world where growth was still the paradigm, energy was cheap and expansion was the order of the day... no wonder there was mass employment. Of course when it became obvious to the boomers that we are facing an energy poor future, having spunked away our hydrocarbon inheritance, decisions were made by the boomers (who were now top politicians, civil servants, top bankers and CEO's) to create the mother of all bubbles - the credit bubble. Unsurprisingly the bubble lasted *just* long enough for the very same boomers to retire in their multi million pound 4 bed semis with a BTL empire and gold plated final salary pensions. I am generalising of course, many boomers (including my parents) have ended up retiring with absolutely nothing, however they are the exception that proves the rule.
  17. "Moving the decimal point by one place would see savings or pension pots of £100,000 shrink to £10,000; but debts or mortgages of £250,000 would be cut to £25,000. Those with the highest debts would benefit most: the winners would be the profligate and the losers are the savers." The government would have to make large cash transactions and owning physical precious metals illegal first.
  18. Sadly it's more likely that some 'canny' buyer is making a cheeky offer of £297,500
  19. pffft No need to trouble yourselves guys.. It is finished. Debt crisis: live Eurozone finance ministers' meeting cancelled as German Chancellor Angela Merkel says Germany doesn't want ECB to buy bonds, sending markets lower ahead of summit and http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-silver-surge
  20. POSTURING AND GRANDSTANDING. Five bucks and my right nut says that a brand new super duper EFSF proposal is announced on Sunday which leads to +100 on the FTSE and a +200 DOW on Monday. The markets will collapse suddenly at 2pm on a Wednesday after some moderately good economic news, just when no one expects it. PFFFFFT
  21. Pffft. If you aren't willing to hide £100k in your house then you're a pussy. Seriously. Money held in digital form at 1.75% interest with a notional government guarantee vs actual cash. no contest. In the deflationary depression that is coming cash will be king.
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