Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by JimDiGritz

  1. Was I the only one who read this thread title as Steve Keen Interviewed By Kill Him
  2. I'm with Bad Santa. Whilst the acknowledgement is good to see in the MSM, I'm shocked that it only accounted for such a small percentage.
  3. Well, why don't you stop moaning and opt out of that scheme and have a look at what the private sector pension market is offering.... oh yeah... ****** ALL.
  4. The massive capital gains from decades of HPI and your final salary pension that you were given in 1978.
  5. Well, as a family with higher than average incomes, good qualifications and 15+ years each in our respective fields we have been turned down by NZ, Canada and Australia. It is a myth that you can just 'emigrate' these days. If you happen to have a long standing career as a Petro Geologist or a Heavy Crane Operator or indeed have a Phd and a job offer then you are fine. Otherwise, forget it. So stuck in f*#%king Blighty it is.
  6. Yes, entitled boomers at it again. Forget the prudent young. Apparently all they do is watch the Only Way is Essex and urinate on the Cenotaph.
  7. Yeah, but sadly it will be turning sentiment towards bailing these f&^kers out
  8. The big issue is that the F-35 isn't as good as the F-36 and is only a bit better than the F-34.
  9. You've spotted a clear trend and called it. However people called the same trend in house prices, and were proven right until just about... now. Oil (and energy) is absurdly cheap. It has been even cheaper for the past hundred years. Growth in that environment is a doozy. Oil production (or potential production) has also been plentiful compared to global consumption. However that trend has been broken. We are now at maximum production at the current price paradigm. Sure we can have as much Oil or energy as we like (until we reach the physical limitations of the high entropy waste heat), but we won't be consuming it at $150bbl.
  10. If I was in the fx market I would go short AUS and long MXN. Eg Im bearish on China but would like the hedge of a solid currency like the Peso.
  11. This article touched a nerve with me. Waiting for the Great Pumpkin If you have no interest in energy, or are unconcerned or skeptical of peak oil I would urge that you still read it anyway. Frankly you can replace high oil prices with high house prices and still get his point. It deals with the reality of our collective Cassandra like predictions of crashes, which despite being right, may come far more gradually than we think and never really feel like crashes. The reason I am posting this is because I, like several other posters on here, am getting tired of waiting for the BIG ONE, a catalyst event which resets the market to match what we perceive to be the sustainable norm (house prices at local 3x income). By way of background I spent years posting on the LATOC (Life After The Oil Crash) board, before, during and after the events of 2007. On there, as here, we could all see the direction of travel that oil and the global economy was headed in. I watched live as NR drowned, and Lehmans and Bear Stearns failed. I watched Gold prices swing by $100/day, oil rocket to $150bl, the Senate and congress voting TARP in at the 11th hour, Iceland defaulting, nations engaging in near infinite bank bailouts, and Greece avoiding default by a whisker... The result... no major oil price shock, yet another middle east conflict brewing and house prices hovering around the same price. My STR fund seems to be a constant reminder that I drank the kool aid. "You take the blue pill, the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes. However the rabbit hole eventually pops back up in a very similar Wonderland and you just wonder whether you have just wasted a chunk of your life and taken a unidentified pill from a strange black dude." Sorry for the long ramble... thanks for the therapy session. I'll expect the bill in the post!
  12. OT but I have LITERALLY no idea why my electric usage is over £1kpa. Wife and I work from home, but we have gas central heating and gas cooker... Gas is c.£70pcm Have installed a smart energy monitor and we seem to average 175w during the day (PC's and a few phone chargers etc), with a couple of peaks when washing machine, shower and kettle on. Being told by British Gas that we are using £100+ per month. Pfft
  13. And backwards we go. With heating and energy costs going up every year month the DiGritz family each wear two jumpers, and go to bed with 2 duvets. Heating goes on for 40mins before we wake, that's it. Still facing £1800/year gas/leccy bill. I'm sure we are not the only ones. (Except some of our sons school friends who are 'socially supported' and whose homes are heated to t-shirt and shorts levels all winter, since they don't pay the bills...) My parents weren't rich, but I never remember having to put up with a cold house.
  14. Those aren't green shoots you can see baby... it's gangrene.
  15. Demographia has a relatively unique way of measuring housing affordability by comparing the price of a median home to the gross (before tax) median annual household income in that market. By dividing the median price by the median income in a given market, Demographia ends up with the median multiple for that market which gives a sense of affordability. Historically, median multiples for the nations in the study have ranged from 2.0 to 3.0 with 3.0 being the upper limit of affordability. 8th Annual International Housing Affordability Survey: 2012 If you look at Table 4 on Page 9 you can see that of the sixteen major real estate markets in the UK (population greater than 1 million people), eight are considered Moderately Unaffordable and another eight are considered Severely Unaffordable as shown here in comparison to the other nations in the study. Most telling is, that according to Demographia, there are no Major markets (population greater than 1 million people) in the UK that are Affordable or even Moderately Unaffordable, and of all the UK Markets (Page 10, Table 5) not one area is classed as Affordable. Not really news to us on here, but some interesting statistics when laid bare.
  16. I would also like to point out that in fact Gold is money, and not a currency. Only currency can be manipulated. Gold, by it's very definition as a store of wealth, cannot.
  17. Spot on. Food miles is something the eco warriors have actually got a very valid argument for (although they are couching it in terms of carbon emissions). Food miles are often derided, however when the distance the food travels is costing x times more than last year, then our efficient agribusiness food chain gets very expensive, very quickly. Add into this the oil required for modern intensive mono-crop farming (diesel, fertilisers etc) and you have a price (food) which is incredibly susceptible to oil prices. As a final twist, if the liquidity in the credit markets dries up as is happening now, you will find that the farmers won't be able to manage their lumpy cash flows. Bad news.
  18. Global Property Guide Seems to have some useful stats and articles on house prices and trends. Hope someone find this useful.
  19. I prefer these guys http://www.fieldtofarm.com/
  20. I don't know... I've go £4k in an old company contribution scheme which I'd be rather chuffed to cash out... I mean the £12/pcm (projected) annuity sounds pretty tempting and all...
  21. Exciting technology, we now just need to figure out how fusion is going to create oil based fertilisers, plastics and liquid fuels.. The cost of re-engineering our entire transport system to run on hydrogen cells or something similar is mind blowing. Doing this in an environment of rising energy prices, social unrest and austerity sounds very unlikely. We have known about this (Peak Oil) problem for decades. However we have ignored it at our peril. The boomers were too busy enjoying cheap oil, and we now have to live with their legacy. Sure, if we divert all military spending, increase our global debts and knuckle down into a 'war effort' we could replace hydrocarbon with a new technology, but every year that goes by makes it harder.
  22. "non-conspiracy Western education theories" as opposed to "Conspiracy-based Eastern ignorance theories"? Umm yeah, I think I'll stick thanks. PS The burden of proof is on you, not on me.
  23. I'm getting quite concerned at this apparent trend in scoffing at scientists and the scientific method. By stating that experts have been predicting that oil will 'run out' for 50 years clearly shows that you don't understand what Peak Oil is describing. No credible energy expert is seriously suggesting that we are close to 'running out' of oil. Moreover Peak Oil is not a theory, it is a description of an extremely well characterised process. Peak Oil describes the point where we are extracting oil at the maximum rate. It is an inevitability. You may want to put a case forward that, based on unproven reserves or yet undiscovered hydrocarbon deposits, Peak Oil will not occur until 20XX, however suggest that it is nothing more than a non-scientific theory is churlish. If you want to put a case forward for abiogenic oil or another mad theory, go ahead, do the primary research and get it peer reviewed. You might struggle though, since almost every sample of oil and gas ever analyzed has demonstrated levorotary properties, a statistic that leans decidedly toward ancient biological origin.
  24. If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through. General Melchett 2001 is debatable for conventional peak oil, however what you are consistently avoiding is the obvious fact that the cheap, easy to get to stuff is at peak production. Not only that but we are not discovering any more (in anything like the quantities required). Ergo oil will continue to rise in price. As I said before it may drop in nominal terms in a deflationary environment, but not at the same speed - making it even less affordable. Many others here have also pointed out the EROI and water implications along with the fact that the traditional exporters are using more and more domestically. In our pub of oil, all the beer taps are on and you are now all excited because someone has figured out a way to squeeze spilt beer out of the carpet.
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.