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House Price Crash Forum


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About slater14

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  1. Does anybody else get that 'hyper mania' guru brainwashed feeling from lookingafterthekids? ....ever thought of selling pyramids or MLM's
  2. WAP does have a point about....."its different this time" Buy To Let. This little bit of trickery has distorted the housing market beyond all recognition. When you talk about 15% IR's and crashes last time and how its all different this time with disposeable incomes, you forget to include BTL. I can remember lots of people fighting tooth and nail to hang on to their properties no matter how high IR's went, they fought on and battled and sat around for 10 years in negative equity.......because it was their HOME How many "INVESTORS" can you think of who will sit around and watch an asset go belly up or flatten out? When BTL'ers learn that their "investments" are not performing as well as other investment opportunities how many will sit by?......how many will be able to afford to sit by and watch this happen? Most of these BTL's have been bought with the idea of rising prices NOT income (Look to our glorious leaders forrays into property for an example) they have to "put to" the mortage every month out of their own pockets never mind make profit on the rent. As Bubb says - there are better returns elsewhere...and you dont have to be a stockbroker whizzkid to find them. When these guys bail, its going to be very interesting. ...and it will indeed be different this time
  3. Yeah, you can still make it in the UK. As froogy quite rightly said - its never been easy. It may sound basic - You need to find something people want and undercut the competion. ...and a bit of advice I got many years ago which has stood me in good stead: stick to what you know. For example (if you've read my computer problems!) I certainly would'nt start an IT consulantcy eBay has become a great leveler for business. I can sell stuff on eBay (and turn a profit) at levels a London store just cant match EVER! I dont pay one million pounds a year in rent for a lovely store in central london or employ armies of staff or pay rates at their levels. Their fixed costs are just massive. People will always buy stuff. even in a recession, just not at the levels they used to.....and they will want it as cheap as possible. As for working 9-5 well, IMHO that'll never make you wealthy....but someones gotta do it (just not me!) I dont mind risking a few quid if the figures stack up....maybe thats the difference, I dont mind risking my money (and time) for the potential return.
  4. A bit of counter spin surely. Dipping you toe into the property market....TO SELL. An interesting turn of phrase.
  5. Shaker, Do you remember almost one year ago to the day, I PM'ed you some info on a commercial property I sold? An update for all: That property has been unoccupied and up for sale/rent ever since. He was expecting another 20 - 30% rise in value in 12 months. I on the other hand, was just hoping he couldnt see what was happening before he exchanged....little runt even tried to line up another buyer before he'd bought it off me at which point I got a 15% non refundable deposit so didnt care too much It is currently being marketed at £180k or offers (I sold it for £215k) so there is no reccession coming and property is BOOMMIINNNGGG....fill yer boots boys and girls 12 months repayments at commercial rates on 200k......now thats got to sting!
  6. Marina, QUOTE - "Given current interest rates, current earnings, current house prices and the current demand/supply ratio" Thats a lot of 'currents' to base a "its different this time" assumption on. If I am 'currently' falling out of a window am I:- 1. currently on floor 76? 2. currently heading for floor 75? 3. currently aiming for floor 77? 4. currently heading for floor 75 but will recover my ground shortly and head back to floor 77? 5. curently stagnant at floor 75 (in that one brief nanosecond of time)? The point of long term trends and averages tells us that people who are "currently" falling from floor 76 should not be thinking that "its different this time" and should maybe use some of this acquired information on the probable outcome.
  7. Its how the cost of housing sits within the costs of everything else. No it isn't. Housing is a market all of its own. Current house prices and the fact that house prices are way above their long term average - and have been for a while - causes me to think 'wonder what's causing that?' It causes you to believe they must return to the long term average. What if the long term average is about to become 6 times earnings over the next 25 years. You seem to believe nothing ever changes. It's all a state of flux. Marina, Houses are not "all on their own" they sit in the middle of our lives just like bread, milk, sugar, telephones, electricity, gas, petrol prices or anything else for that matter. You cannot choose to 'remove' housing costs from the overall. 3.5x multiples were not just plucked out of thin air. It is a very accurate % tool for borrowing and lending. If we choose to ignore 3.5x lets look at it in this scenario: I earn 12k and want to buy a rolls royce. A bank offers me a loan to buy it. Q1. Is this practical or realistic? Q2. can you see a problem in their lending criteria? This whole 6x salary (or anything above 3.5) only works when you remove the 'home ownership' aspect and turn it into speculation (or what I more accuratley prefer - GAMBLING) on future house prices.
  8. Marina, I'm not sure how old you are (so you may have to do a google for this) Back in the last boom Hong Kongers had the same idea as you. Banks created 'new' mortages whereby the mortage was taken out in the borrowers name (on their earnings) then passed onto future generations So, you were not only mortaging yourself BUT you were also mortaging your children!!! WTF! because the income multipier just wouldnt stack up in one lifetime! This was the only way they could find around the rising income multiplier and still keep shifting money and property......I have seen all the old con tricks come back with fancy 'new' mortages and when I see this one appear then the game is well and truly up! NOTE - I somehow doubt they'll ever bring this mortage back....but I said that about self cert, 5x mulitples, cash back, 100% mortages, so I suppose its just possible
  9. Travelling back from Scotland today and having major problems getting a decent signal on the radio.. I stumbled on to BBC Radio Cumbria it was early afternoon (between 1pm - 2pm) and they were discussing house prices and purchasing etc.. Now granted, I only stumbled onto this discussion for the last few minutes but the general gist was - You will need to hock yourself to the eyeballs...."dont think about the debt, its too big" "parents and grandparents should sell their property to provide deposits for the next generation" "house prices will continue rising albeit not at 20-30% per year" "dont set your goals as high as previous generations" etc etc etc etc.. It sounded like the lamest Pyramid scammer trotting out his lines to ensnare more gullible fools. I'm sure some techy person will be able to find a link to this discussion.
  10. In short - LANDLORDS will be the 'new' landlords. Old hands at this game know its just like any other business - know when to buy and know when to sell...and know when to sit on your hands and .....WAIT Believe me, there are a lot of landlords just waiting.
  11. and lo and behold.....down the line we go into IVA and its all roses in the garden 5 years later :angry: :angry: Why did I ever bother working. :angry: :angry:
  12. OOOOhhhhh I was nearly going to bid...then she goes and mentions that I'd have to have wash and brush my teeth.....I dont think I'll bother now.
  13. I'm not quite sure of the relevance of the question..... From speaking to these guys on the phone there was only one I can think of who was most definitley from Eastern Europe. There were several from 'that London' and I had a good chat with these guys as to how they found a job in the Mighty North West.....collegues at their base in Manchester had given them the number as they were being laid off. There were also quite a few women who applied. Most of these guys sounded like they were local manchester lads.....truthfully, I dont really care that much as long as we can work well together and he/she is productive. I'm employing someone...not marrying them!
  14. Hi notanewmember, I'm not sure how old you are so I dont whther you saw this last time round - The papers and telly didnt really pick up on it until it was already into absolute freefal. Where the weather slot is on the news now, there used to be the newsreader stood in front of a board and it had a big RED arrow pointing down jobs lost ....then the newreader used to go into some detail about anther 26,000 redundancies at this factory and so on and so on... Then used to come the GREEN arrow pointing up - jobs created ...and I kid you not, on NATIONAL NEWS AT TEN they would talk about 45 jobs being created at the Sunblest bread factory! Anyone in their 30's or over will remeber this very well....it was even a running joke on Not the 9 o'clock news.
  15. ...very funny I havent had time to go through ALL the mesages yet, If I see or hear shakerbaby on the other end - I will file it my very special place.....the recepticle usually reserved for empty fag packets and other 'important' material.
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