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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by threetimesdead

  1. You can answer that question Anyone who can build that model and correlate that PROPORTION to house price changes will be able to answer your questions It may well be that folks at the BoE already did it
  2. The banks don't need that rule - you as a borrower do
  3. What is the difference between 3-4 single multiple and 6-8 multiple for a family of 2 workers? What is the impact of having/not having council tax? What is the impact of the rate at which personal income is taxed?? The bottom line is that you need to work out THE PROPORTION mortgage payments as a proportion of disposable household income - and that methodology is far far away from just looking at single GROSS salary multiples
  4. You don't have to include CDOs for a long-term model, or you can bring it in and out of the model to see the effect I do not think there is an "old Methodology" and return to it Affordability will change as salaries levels change, as taxation changes, as number of workers in the household changes, as mortgage payments vary depending on interest rates and the proportion of those mortgages fixed What you have in bold above is the very simplistic (but still not as crude as single income multiples) base model if you can be bothered to put it together
  5. Your opinion - Supported by what? I also predict that the queen will fart twice tonight and every day thereafter for the next 2 years
  6. No, I never went to the Convent in Lechlade
  7. Affordability would be a key factor but composed of many variables - step 1 - define the key variables Banking = fraud - has always been and always will be there and is not that important for the inclusion into the model Government coersion is also composed of many variables and the task there would be to decide which variables are hystorically persistent (such as taxation) temporary (such as MIRAS and QE) and how feasible their inclusion is (data availability) Affordability variables on their own are a good start - define them, find the data and build the model
  8. It is crude aproximation and it ignores completely far more imporatant factors at work. Is useless
  9. Does it really say that?: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/por...ournal/60publkp "Current issue: Ifo Konjunkturperspektiven 7/2009 Results of the Ifo Business Survey for July 2009 Manufacturing: Outlook continues to brighten In manufacturing (including food and beverages) the business climate indicator rose again. For the seventh time in succession the sceptical responses regarding the business expectations declined. However, there was little change in the unfavourable business situation; in comparison to the previous month only a slightly smaller number of firms reported an unsatisfactory business situation. The decrease in demand has almost come to a standstill according to the responses of the survey participants, and finished goods inventories have again been reduced. Considerably fewer firms assessed order reserves as "too small"; the depth of orders on hand, however, at 2.3 months is still clearly below the previous year level (3.0 months). Equipment and machinery was utilised at a 71.8% rate, on average, which was lower than twelve months ago (86.0%), in comparison to the first quarter (71.3%), however, the utilisation rate has recovered somewhat. Firms' production plans call for fewer restrictions than in June. Only a small number of survey participants still expect the decline in export business to continue. Construction: Slightly improved business climate The business climate in construction was a little more favourable in July than in the previous month. The contractors participating in the Ifo Business Survey were less dissatisfied with the current business situation; with regard to business developments in the next six months, their reserve has also decreased somewhat. Almost 40% of the survey participants reported hindrances in building activity, the largest factor being insufficient orders. The equipment utilization rate rose one percentage point to 69% (seasonally and weather adjusted), thus matching the previous year value. The depth of order stocks increased insignificantly to 2.4 months (seasonally and weather adjusted) on average for all construction sectors; a year ago the order cushion was somewhat larger (2.5 months). The survey responses indicate that prices remained under pressure in July. In the opinion of the survey participants, they will have to lower prices only moderately in the coming months, however. Personnel reductions in the coming months are only planned to a small extent. Wholesaling: Declining scepticism The business climate in the wholesale trade improved again in July. In comparison to June, the firms were less often dissatisfied with the business situation. In individual cases too high inventories have been reduced. The scepticism with regard to future developments continued to weaken. In light of the less negative business outlook, the survey participants have upped their order plans, which, however, are still lower than one year ago. Restrictions are also evident in their employment plans. Prices are expected to increase in the coming months, in the opinion of the wholesalers. Retailing: More favourable business situation The business climate in retailing worsened slightly in July. This is because the firms have assessed their six-month business outlook more unfavourably than in June. Their current business situation, however, is regarded as almost satisfactory and thus clearly more positive than in June. Although the retailers more frequently assessed their inventories as too large, they do not intend to be as restrictive in their order plans as before. Once more, fewer firms reported having to make price concessions. For the coming months the survey results indicate that prices will remain stable. The number of employees in retailing is also expected to undergo little change. Services: Climate indicator rises The Ifo Business Climate for the service sector (excluding trade, banking, leasing, insurance and the public sector) improved in July. The surveyed firms assessed their current business situation less unfavourably than in June but expect only a minimal growth in turnover in the near future. In their business expectations for the coming half year, scepticism has weakened further, however. The service providers anticipate an unchanged business situation in the coming months. Their personnel plans foresee no changes in staff levels."
  10. General affordability may or may not be correlated with single income multiples If and when it is correlated it is more of a coincidence than a 100% (or "perfect") correlation The cake will be salty because the recipe has 10g of salt in it - what about 200g of sugar?
  11. Order books continue to reduce, but not as fast May to Jun - 100 to 75 Jun to Jul - 75 to 60 There is no contradiction - there is no improvement A fall is a fall
  12. It is similar to expressing the thickness of the human hair in inches
  13. The poster refers to long term trend based on individual salary and that methodology is wrong - there is no such trend
  14. This methodology excludes effects of taxation, multiple incomes and interest rates and is, hence, irrelevant Irrelevant methodology produces irrelevant arguments
  15. It is people that borrow and make offers on houses - not government If it is a revolution that you need - it will be a revolution against yourself - pretty much a handjob
  16. German economy is the real economy and this makes it a weather bell The consensus there is that: - the pace of falls in factory orders is slowing - the recovery is NOT on the horizon - in the mid-term (5-10 years) pre- 2007 growth rates will NOT be achieved
  17. The June-July SSTCs (those that have been on the market for 18 months prior to SSTC) are coming back for sale around here en-masse And you can continue trying to hype and scare (yourself) as much as you wish A pile of sh!te cannot be worth 50 years of human slavery
  18. No, first the STR funds have to be expropriated by means of ploughing them back into bricks and mortar and thereby helping the banks rebuild their balance sheets
  19. http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=76969 Rates up, unemployment up House prices? Only one way - up up up
  20. Nonsense It was not the Government and not within the realms of the powers of any Government to bring the credit to its high of 2007 It is beyond the powers of any Government to "restore" those levels And it cannot therefore be on the "agenda" of any Government to bring it back
  21. If "cash becomes trash" China is finished and the latter will not happen for too many reasons Hence, cash will not become trash And that leaves the only other bit fot the trash bin - houses
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