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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by threetimesdead

  1. I think this is because ladies are a minority on HPC and have not got a chance of a gang up. Also, the more intelligent a person is the less b**chy she is. Women on HPC seem intellectually to be above the average while men are the average, hence the disproportionate slagging from the men and no adequate response from the girls.
  2. No surprises here. It starts with virtual economy like financial services and if desease is not contained at that stage, the contagion moves into real economy - manufacturing heartlands - Germany, Eastern Europe, Asia. US and China were pumping cheap credit into UK so that the chavs can pay for a stream of BMWs. The credit pump got shut down - BMW sales revenues are down 24%. And that is just one of many basket credit cases. The real decisive moment now is who of the 2 - GBP and EUR - will or will not go for the QE - money printing. That will drive the exchange rates from here onwards.
  3. I do not agree " that the above stated aim would not be robbery". There is a massive budget deficit. The only prudent way to deal with it is to raise interest rates straightaway, now. By means of QE you get to very same result - high interest rates - but in different stages, by stripping more wealth away from the populus, and in politically far more convenient timeframe - after the general election. You bring in QE in 2009 having in mind a general election in 2010. In 2009 you declare your good intentions to stave off deflation and start the QE with that good excuse. By means of QE you strip off the wealth of cash rich savers in 2009 and make feel good the mortgage holders as they are deluded - house prices in nominal terms remain quasy unchanged. You then take the country to general election in 2010 (remember the 12-18 month lag - from monetary decision to the result - hyperinflation). By that time you have another good excuse for a totally different action - raise dramatically interest rates because your well intended QE resulted in massive hyperinflation. So, you rob everyone in the process but manage not to p!ss the mortgage holders until after the polls. Macciavelli would certainly apploud this type of politics.
  4. This post explains it academically nicely. Those graphs speak volumes for anyone who can and wish to see and is NOT on a mission of deceit of others. Thank you.
  5. Any QE effectively is a form of a latent taxation imposed onto most prudent in the society for the start, eventually - imposed onto anyone holding the currency. It is a tax irrespective of what you mean by "horribly wrong" and for whom. QE is by definition horribly wrong. The only difference from any other tax is that it is illegal and limitless in the amounts taken from taxpayers by its nature. Robbery. If that is not plain enough, what is. As said move to Zimbabwe for the very light taste of it...
  6. In the event of QE your savings will be decimated, nominal(!) house prices will at best stay same (unlikely), at worst will go up. Most importantly, the buying power of your cash will be diminishing on the daily basis and you will be homeless.
  7. Not silly when folks with a kid and in decent jobs and with 2 incomes have to rent and move every 6-12 months for the last 12 years from one cr*ppy place to another. There are millions of families like this living in misery. Happiness - how many people will pass the message and recall? Misery = immortality
  8. Without QE round one you have £100 round two you have £100 round tree you have £100 With QE round one you have £100 round two you have £50 round tree you have £5 You decide for yourself what is good for you then, any VIs BTW?
  9. QE is evil - it destroys lives. There is a 12-18 months gap between monetary actions and their impact. By the time "When that happens" "and inflation takes off" it will be hyperinflation and nothing to curb it except for more misery. The very reason the inflation target use to be in the lows of 1-3% is because beyond those levels the swings become uncontrollable. QE is evil - it robbes people of their earnings and cash, it destroys lives. Anyone who does not believe this should move to Zimbabwe now without a penny and have a lifetime experience.
  10. Wrong. The "large sums from the BOE" you are talking about are new printed money called QE and worth as much as the paper and ink used in their production.
  11. Your questions imply that you have not read the thread - it has the answers: Japan (sorry, do not know how to do the double quote): QUOTE (thirdwave @ Jan 8 2009, 11:20 PM) The reasons why QE only did limited damage to the Japanese economy- 1)The Japanese had massive savings, unlike the British 2)Much of the excess liquidity created through QE left Japan due to the carry trade 3)Unlike the current crisis, the rest of the world was growing at the steady clip during Japan's 'lost decade' and therefore there were many eager buyers for Japanese products- we have nothing to sell to the world and even if we did, the rest of the world is on the verge of recession/depression 4)Japan is a net exporter (unlike the UK) and the weaker Yen actually helped Japanese exports USA: 1. We do not know yet the scale of their QE and whether they were "let to do it" by the markets 2. US is a RESERVE CURRENCY which none who holds it really wants to fail completely, STERLING is NOT a reserve currency and UK is neither an export-driven economy, nor a manufacturing led economy.
  12. He is not a clown. He does what his paymasters ask him to do, he just makes his living through participating in the brainwashing of the populus.
  13. 1. The new Banking Act allows them to do it secretly. 2. "Market would balk" (balk = refrain, abstain, reject it) is to say very least. Markets will decimate sterling. 3. Printing money will decimate your savings and your salary whatever the markets do.
  14. There you go: Summer 2009 - printing presses turned on Spring 2010 - country goes to polls and fascists rise to power
  15. Wrong. The market value will not become zero when the printing money starts sometime this summer. The market NOMINAL price of a house will go into Zillions, depending on how much they print, and will certainly be higher than the nominal values of 2007. Your savings will be decimated and for FTBs owning a house will be as impossible and as far away as ever.
  16. I have been thinking hard too - it has to be a commodity which is easy to liquidate and will not loose its intrinsic value. The only answer I could come with is arms trade - I mean helicopters, tanks, aircrafts. But the entry level is financially prohibitive and regulatory is nearly impossible. So, shares in Halliburton or something similar could be an answer. In developed world no govt is seriously reducing arms budget, in the 3d world they are up.
  17. If the reason for intervention is to support the housing market, what makes you think the Treasury will pay £60k price you took (if lucky) from an auction, if unlucky - from your own predictions? They will use the EA valuations or Land Registry figures which are only 8-10% down from your hypothetical 100K bringing us to £90k purchase price and end of the HPC.
  18. And here is the confirmation of it: http://www.nowpublic.com/tech-biz/goldman-...akes-tarp-funds Paulson, Goldman Sachs, TARP and tax avoidance
  19. That would not help - the HPC, in nominal terms, will have been stopped and housing affordability reduced thorugh QE - money printing induced - hyperinflation, preserving thereby the status quo. I suppose, may help you personally to acquire free housing at HML
  20. Like you, until recently I was confident of 50% falls from 2007 to 2010. I begin to doubt that for 2 reasons: 1. QE - printing money due sometime mid this year and a follow-up hyperinflation wich will decimate your savings and your salary on which you counting to buy. 2. Proposed direct intervention of this govt into housing market by buying reposessed houses at nearly asking prices (not auction prices). If any of the above-mentioned 2 points are to happen you will not be able to afford a house for the forseeable future. Emigrating may help.
  21. Consultants do not undertake a research unless the have a purchasing order to do so - from the Treasury I suppose in this case. The Treasury would employ consultants instead of its own brain only if they have to justify their own politically sensitive decision by hiding behind an "independent think-tank". This makes me think that the govt will indeed try and intervene directly into the housing market before the BOE start printing money later this year. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...rM&refer=uk
  22. I have actually lived through QE or money printing exercise. Printing money is evil. My uncle's lifetime savings which would originally have bought him a large detached house with land became obsolete and bought him 1kg of meat. Pensioners were left destitute. Crime shot up many fold. Printing money is daytime robbery by the government of its own citizens. Printing money in Weimar Republic brought Hitler to power. And we know this is Zimbabwe today. There is no excuse for QE. It has always resulted in HYPERINFLATION. Japan is not a good example. Strictly technically, Japan did not have a QE because liquidity left Japan by means of carry trades. But I want to focus you on the subheading of this thread - "Are we all set up?" All major newspapers in UK today have "educational" articles about QE, printing money... 1. They are preparing the populus for what is possibly already a done deal once the rates reach 0.25% and the Banking Act gets the Royal Assent. 2. They testing the markets reaction, although at 1.5% markets would not have priced the QE in the sterling value yet. But from my own past personal experiences I am looking hard at exiting sterling before the start of the onslaught
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