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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by threetimesdead

  1. "Wie stark wird die Arbeitslosigkeit noch steigen? Die führenden Wirtschaftsinstitute erwarten laut ihrer gemeinsamen Frühjahrsprognose, dass die Arbeitslosigkeit bis Ende 2010 auf fast fünf Millionen steigt. Auch die Bundesagentur für Arbeit hält diesen drastischen Anstieg bis Ende des kommenden Jahres für möglich. Die Bundesregierung schätzt, dass 2010 im Schnitt 4,6 Millionen Menschen ohne Job sein werden und damit 900.000 mehr als 2009." By end of 2010 - a total of 5 mln unemployed - 900,000 more than in 2009 http://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/aufschwung100.html
  2. Like with cancer you have your options - early and full surgical removal - year 2008 option gone now Early denial and meddling with subsequent years, may be decades, of pain and suffering GB was never known for decisiveness
  3. Rising unemployment spending cuts time-bomb of pending corporate re-financing deals
  4. A lot of hardworking people will have to work even harder as they had worked very little with their brain going into debt Another big lot of hardworking people will in the next 6-18 months releaved from any hard work altogether except for that of looking for new work, in vain
  5. Eventually the life support machine gets switched off - it doesn't matter then who and why turns it off What matters is that the longer you put it off the greater the shock
  6. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8253331.stm "The TUC has published a report analysing the effects of possible public spending cuts on the 25 local authorities with the highest levels of unemployment. It suggests that areas such as Liverpool, Leicester and Middlesbrough would suffer increases in unemployment of around 40%. The report also warns that a 10% cut in public sector staff would lead to 700,000 workers being laid off."
  7. Spot on! Edit: And this only proves them as VIs taking away any credibility whatsoever.
  8. TUC couldn't make a deal with Cameron so they trying to press NL into promisses - DC may have told them cuts are inevitable, whoever wins
  9. Mmmm Rather, proved that everyone to these days is an idiot
  10. More likely zero growth for the next 15 years http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf...ent&src=rss
  11. Leverage = Inflation Deleveraging = Deflation http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/a...PPLzLuuZpiG0p-g Deflation arrives at UK high street (UKPA) – 2 hours ago Deflation has arrived on Britain's high street for the first time since February 2007, latest figures have shown. Shop prices across the retail sector dropped by 0.1% last month compared with a year ago, according to the latest British Retail Consortium (BRC)-Nielsen Shop Price Index. The fall in price tags is being driven by "huge" falls in food price inflation, according to the BRC. The figures showed food inflation eased for the fifth month in a row, to 2.3%, as recession continues to bear down on prices and demand. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation fell the most since the index began in 2005. Food inflation is now at the same level it was two years ago - down from a high of 10% last August when food prices rocketed amid the oil and commodity price bubble. The BRC added that non-food goods remained cheaper than they were a year ago, down 1.4%, continuing a trend now seen for nine straight months. Stephen Robertson, director general of the BRC, said: "The fall has been driven by a huge drop in food inflation - which is now less than a quarter of what it was last August. "This reduction is largely due to commodity prices, such as oil and wheat, falling since last summer's peak to much lower levels." He added: "Falling prices are good news for customers and could give a much-needed boost to retail sales."
  12. One for UK http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/i...257843420090903 "The British are doing what for them has traditionally been unthinkable - paying back debt - an individually smart move which in aggregate spells trouble. Combine this with a banking system that has turned extremely conservative and you have the potential for an extended downturn or at best, a recovery that feels a bit like the period after a severe bout of the flu. Since 1993 the Bank of England has been keeping tabs on the amount of debt carried by households and since then the British - who make their American cousins look positively frugal - have been consistently leveraging up. Until July this year, that is, when figures reported by the Bank of England showed consumer debt, such as credit cards, was repaid to the tune of 217 million pounds, the most on record. UK households paid back a net 418 million pounds of debt borrowed against houses, the most since, you guessed it, records began. The explanation is pretty simple. After 15 years of borrowing and spending in a more or less benign job market and with asset prices rising, British consumers now face the opposite: 2.44 million seeking work and house prices that have fallen about 20 percent since the peak. These facts have not escaped the notice of the banks, which have lost big in the downturn and are aware of both their own and their customers frailty. Despite massive material support from the government, and in the face or repeated tongue-lashings, the banks are not lending at a rate to inspire confidence. How much of this is unwillingness and how much a lack of demand is unclear. What is likely is that if money does not move around the economy more rapidly there will be continued strong downward pressure on prices and asset values. Speaking at a conference in Barcelona last week, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Charles Bean was blunt about the risks. "An open question is therefore whether the banking system will be able to support an adequate volume of credit as the extensive network of public support is removed," Bean said. "If not, then further attempts to deleverage are possible. And deleveraging through the restriction of new loans generates a positive feedback loop analogous to that through asset sales", he said. "De-leveraging by restricting credit growth may be privately rational, but if every intermediary tries to do the same, the result will be lower activity and higher defaults and little improvement in leverage ratios - what, to paraphrase Keynes, we might describe as the 'paradox of deleveraging'."
  13. US Consumer Credit Plunges http://livenews.com.au/feature/us-consumer...009/9/10/218888 So dramatic is this process that figures out on consumer credit for July from the Federal Reserve showed a record $US21.6 billion fall in total consumer credit in the month. That was a fall of an annualised 10.4% to to $US2.47 trillion, bigger than market forecasts for a $4.0 billion drop. And it was made worse, with the fall in total credit for June revised upwards to $US15.5 billion rather than the $10.3 billion drop previously reported by the Fed. The total amount of consumer credit now outstanding in the US is the lowest since August 2007 and is down $US115 billion. US consumer credit has now fallen for six consecutive months, the first time this has happened since the period from the last recession in the last six months of 1991. Non-revolving credit, which includes closed-end loans for expensive purchases such as cars, boats, college education and holidays, plunged a record $US15.4 billion, or at an 11.7% annual rate, and revolving credit (credit and charge cards) fell $US6.1 billion, or 8.1% annual. Outstanding credit in July fell 4.2% from the same month in 2008 (which is close to when it hit its all time high). That yearly fall is the largest since 1944.
  14. World Markets Market Data - 23:22 UK Markets FTSE 100 4,908.90 0.81% Dax 5,464.61 0.96% Cac 40 3,653.54 1.07% Dow Jones 94.96 99.01% Nasdaq 1,625.19 1.09% S&P 500 10.21 99.01% Nikkei 225 10,492.50 0.40% Hang Seng 19,724.20 1.86%
  15. Still there, still showing Dow down 99,01% http://morningstar.timesonline.co.uk/times...x&index=SPX
  16. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=apG_YeCYUyEg Bond Market Eyeing 10% Jobless Rate Rejects Recovery "according to the Merrill Lynch & Co. Global Sovereign Broad Market Plus Index. The gauge, which tracks $15.4 trillion of bonds worldwide, gained 0.73 percent this month, the most since 1.02 percent in March. " “The bond market does not believe we will see rapid robust rates of growth. The deleveraging of the consumer will act as a drag on growth, which will keep inflation to a minimum and interest rates relatively low.†The picture is the same in Europe. U.K. two-year gilt yields dropped to a record low of 0.828 percent on Aug. 25 before ending the week at 0.84 percent. German bund yields of similar maturity declined 12 basis points to 1.25 percent last week and fell from 1.61 percent on Aug. 10 even as government reports showed the economy exited the recession in the three months ended June 30. "
  17. 1. "utility value in a house" has nothing to do with owning it, owning a mortgage on it or even renting it utility value of a house is having a roof over your head that is where the confusion is 2. potential falls/rises are irrelevant here if rental income from a property covers just 40% of the INTEREST -ONLY mortgage on the same property
  18. If one were really to believe in a Japanaslide and L-shape then one would hope for all the entertainment right ahead of us - unlike Japana we do not have an unwritten social contract to keep everyone in employment
  19. Oh, please, not the same crappy story again a pile of bricks and mortar in a god forsaken country is not necessarily the best and most certainly not the only available option to get rid of your cash
  20. Only if you care about the sample size - vast majority of borrowers in this country don't know how to work out their mortgage payments with statistical sampling being close to rocket science for them Ignorance of STRs jumping back in is astonishing Easy win - easy loss
  21. The biggest subsidy at present is with petrol and its name is economies of scale. Using natural gas directly is less efficient and doesn't solve transportation problem - LNG is too expensive If you read through the sources by-products are just what they are - by-products
  22. Non-viable - why invest billions without any subsidies? And here is the answer to your second question: http://www.shell.com/home/content/aboutshe...pearl/overview/ "Key facts Location: Qatar, Ras Laffan Industrial City Category: Integrated gas and GTL project Ownership: Development and Production Sharing Agreement with government of Qatar, 100% Shell funding Operator: Shell Peak: Production: 320 kboe/d of gas resulting in: - 140 kbbl/d of GTL products (2 trains) - 120 kboe/d of NGLs and Ethane Key contractors: JGC/KBR joint venture Technology The proprietary Shell Middle Distillate Synthesis (SMDS) process will be at the heart of the two-train Pearl GTL plant. Developed over the course of three decades, the process has been proven on a commercial scale at the 14,700-barrel-per-day Bintulu GTL plant in Malaysia, which began operation in 1993. The Bintulu experience helped improve the chemical catalysts integral to the SMDS process. These improvements will reduce unit capital expenditure, allow faster processing and should enable Shell to produce greater volumes of fuel and other products at Pearl."
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