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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Rhombus

  1. Fair enough, we all know that its only a matter of time until the agent spin doesnt work anymore.
  2. Agree, I've lived in Cheshire for 10 years and Ellesmere Port is not representative of the county as a whole. Its barely in Cheshire to be honest. In areas like Knutsford, Alderley Edge, Macclesfield, Wilmslow, Northwich - core Cheshire areas - prices are still going up - I've been watching them, they havent even plateaued yet. However, these areas (with the exception of Northwich, although it has the prestigious Kingsmead area) are very affluent. One interesting stat is to compare price index of apartments vs. houses as these could be suffering.
  3. Remember the strategic positioning of IRAQ and AFGHANISTAN - they're either side of IRAN. Even Israel is only 500 miles away. Its truly frightening when you think of the possible game plan...
  4. Agree, they have had relatively calm water to steer through since Brown emancipated them. Cant see them going up 2 - down 2 in the space of 12 months.
  5. Thanks for the breakdown BS. Thanks for the sarcasm..... There are many reasons people have to buy a house right now - more kids, job move, mortgage redemption tie-in, etc, etc. As long as you're moving in a relatively similar price banding then moving at any time isnt really going to harm you because the gains you bring from the sale relate to the losses later. I guess your argument is to rent for an indefinite period then?
  6. The other factor is the amount of people MEW'ing to move abroad - or basically selling up. The numbers are on the increase year on year as Nu Labor screws middle England for all its worth. The demographic shift in the country over the next 5-10 years will be nothing short of staggering (250,000 out per year - 300,000 in = ~1/2mill change or 1%, thats amazing....). New entrants wont be able to afford current HPI and alot of current wealth reserve will be taken to Spain, France, etc.
  7. There arent that many people on 10 yr fixed's. Where did you get 40% from? (seems high to me)
  8. As they have been saying for years now....its starting to wear veneer thin.
  9. Fair enough HAL, confidence is the key thing admittedly, and that could turn at 5.5% - but there is of course no guarantee that rates will get there.
  10. One problem is that wealthy people are buying the little new builds that are around off-plan and selling for profit - partic. apartments. Builders are sitting on huge amounts of land that they could actually develop...but they choose to keep demand high, supply low. Blame the builders...and the govnmt for not making them release new plots.
  11. I get that impression too - but you are wrong. People on here would love to make a profit whilst at the same time buying an affordable house - I've been reading posts here alot longer than you. However, many if not most want the market to crash --> buy at the bottom --> sell at the top again = profit. When you buy a house with a 25 year mortgage, like people have done since HPI time began, you're pretty much paying for the rest of your life regardless of IRs, HPI, etc. Plus affordability is better now than for many a generation. Its all relative...but unfortunately many on here werent on the ladder before the recent HPI boom and it rankles like hell. I'm all for bear sentiment and discussions but lets be realistic. I think a correction is going to need a little more IR increase than that. Good point HAL, we need some kind of Affordability Index and be able to see when that crosses a critical threshold (guess would combine IRs, HPI, wage index, RPI, etc...)
  12. Yeah, yeah. I've read this 'correction' stuff on here since late 2004, even I believed it back then....thats why this is my first visit here in 6 months, this site has lost its purpose. OK, a correction may come at some point, it may not, but I dont see it happening next year or the year after, the fundamentals have changed since 1970's, 1990's when correctons happened before, this is a different country now, different demographic, shortage of housing, etc .....you might as well make some money in the meantime, like you would have done had you bought end of 2004 and sold now.
  13. Just think how much money some people could have made on property if they had bought when they first starting talking about a crash on here (say late-ish 2004) and sold now...probably made 20-30k on average, and they could have still rented either side of that. Now thats depressing - plus they're forecasting 13% next year. I was a bear, but being a bear costs money, serious money.
  14. refer to link i just posted, interesting reading from US
  15. US Report - 10 Sept Interesting news paper report out today in US...
  16. Its based on salaries from 2002, and hence out of date.
  17. Take a look at this beauty being sold in a place called Sandymoor near Runcorn, Cheshire. The development is new and includes houses up to £400,000 for new 5-bed exec types. And pylons run right through the development. Sandymoor How did people buy them.....? Its not as if we're talking £100k houses here - take a look at whats on offer in Sandymoor. And to top if off, they then built a new Police Custody centre on the other side of the development! When offenders get released, they are basically allowed to wander into the middle of the new exec housing development as they are not given escorts to nearist bus or rail station. This combination of pylons and 'custody centre with en-suite exec homes to raid on release' must make this area one of worst places to buy in Britain...........
  18. Good post TB, and as if Tesco wasnt poweful enough... I can see the shopping list now - bananas, eggs, diet coke and a 3-bed semi in York.
  19. .... what about the stats showing 150K in, 250k out per annum?
  20. I know someone who paid 190k for 2-bed flat 8 months ago. Not new build. Its now on at 180k.
  21. Is that perhaps conducting a "pole"?
  22. Wuluf - if you think I'm going to engage with someone who patronises with comments like "if I've got time I will go into it later" then you are sadly wrong. I have worked extensively in the US - my UK SME company has an office off Times Sq New York, Germany, France, Holland, Belgium, Scandinavia so I dont need a lecture about life/standards in other countries. They all have good and bad points. However, clearly you're very anti-british, that shines out like a beacon. My initial motivation on this thread was to disagree about the title "What a joke this country is becoming". I simply disagree. Faults can be extensively picked in all other countries and isnt the grass just so much nicer elsewhere. It always is. But its funny how many UK ex-pats return back isnt it? So yes, we could go backwards and forwards with points ad infinitum. Thats the beauty of data and statistics. But at the end of the day I never do business with patronising people, no less debate with them.
  23. No, their main effort is back-stabbing each other now. Blair hates Brown more than Cameron, he's determined to pass on a poisoned chalice so he lingers on knowing the bad times a cometh. Still, should be interesting to see Cameron face Brown at each PMQ session.......zzzzzzzzz
  24. Hate to throw a spanner in the works guys but 'Spring' got the term completely wrong. 'Rentier' = A rentier is a person who lives on the income from property, bond interest, or other investment and is not personally involved in its operation. According to Melvyn Bragg, Goethe, the archetypal but misundertood German poet, was born with a silver spoon in his mouth, and was thus enabled to live as a 'rentier'. Theres also the term "Rentier State" The theory of the “rentier state” says that countries that receive substantial amounts of oil revenues from the outside world on a regular basis tend to become autonomous from their societies, unaccountable to their citizens, and autocratic. The theory is used to help explain why Iran, the Gulf States, many African states ( Nigeria, Gabon) and other countries (e.g., Netherlands) with abundant resource wealth perform less well than their resource-poor counterparts. How does this happen, according to the rentier state theory? The short answer, according to Yates, is that a rentier state and rentier economy lead to a rentier mentality, which dooms a country’s economy and long-term prospects. So, a rentier in this context is quite the opposite - its actually a BTL'er sitting back living off the proceeds!!!!
  25. Yes, BTL works fine in principle as long as your houses are going up in value. Pyramid buying - its bound to end in tears.
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