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House Price Crash Forum


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About Krug

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  1. I am not giving you investment advice. What price did you buy your dollars at? If it is close to $2 then you have done well. One option is to take some of your profit now and leave some on to see if you can get more. From the perspective of a currency trader, you can't call the top or the bottom easily. There is a good chance the pound will rise to at least $1.53 before deciding to continue downwards, or it may continue upwards from there. There is no way to know for sure. It has moved a great deal in a short space of time, so it may well stay in a range for a while yet. From a fundamental viewpoint, there doesn't seem to be much hope for the pound in the long term. Holding out for parity is not an insane idea. But you do need to be able to hold and wait patiently. Difficult to do when you see the pound cilmb and climb in the meantime.
  2. Relatively recently houses switched form being a ‘normal’ good to a speculative one. Buy to let, conversions, new builds, tv shows encouraging ordinary people to flip for profit etc. This resulted in its rise in price due to the speculative demand. People are predicting its fall in value based on its ‘speculative’ price behaviour, ie uptrend, fibbonachi retracements to 33% 50% etc. Elliot wave analysis. But what about that fact that it will no longer be a speculative good for another generation perhaps. It is now no longer a speculative good. So speculative analysis techniques are not going to tell us the future price of housing anymore. Speculative techniques only work with goods that people speculate/invest with. This would mean its price should return back to an inflation adjusted one, same as any other good. So if we take inflation at around 5% a year since 1995. House prices should be roughly double what they were in 1995? Isn’t the question of whether housing will or won’t be a speculative good, be one of the most important factors to take into account for future price estimates? If it is now a normal good then it must return to an inflation adjusted price same as other goods. It only went up because people were speculating/investing in it. I don't know what an accurate inflation figure would be since 1995.
  3. Thanks guys, very informative, puts my mind at ease.
  4. Hi, I recently purchased 8 1 oz krugerrand gold coins. All dated 1974 1976 1980 1981 One coin is from 1974. The 1974 coin seems slightly different to the other years, it has an ever so slightly darker colour to the others. It has less well defined ridges all around the circumference. The ridges seem to be more numerous as well. It also has some small round stains on it which wont rub off. The stains are dark red in colour. It is however the same weight, diameter and thickness as the other coins. It also emits a long high pitched ping when tapped. Same as the others. Should I be worried? Thanks
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