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pl1

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Posts posted by pl1

  1. 11 hours ago, Northern Welsh Midlander said:

    I'm beginning to wonder if we don't have the perfect political climate for a HPC. We have a weak Tory government with the threat of a loonie in charge if they fall. That threat and Brexit will stoke uncertainty and drive sentiment, leading to falls in house prices. We have 3% SDLT and S24 baked in, hitting the BTL mob hard and I can't see any political will to U turn on this while they are in such a weak position given that both of these were introduced while the Tories were in a much better position and sentiment wasn't turning anti-LL its a no brainier now that it will continue as planned. The economic effects of Brexit and the US raising rates will force the same here further feeding back in to the housing loop.  The Tories can cling to power, and when prices fall and finally the FTBs and others wake up to the fact CHEAPER HOUSING IS NOT A BAD THING, the Tories were in charge all along and they can hover up their votes in time for the next GE. IF the loonie is still at the head of labour at the next GE, that may very well push some of the protest voters from this time around back to the Tories as they'll be worried there is a real possibility that their protest vote could count.

    And of course the "Youthquake" who voted for Corbyn for debt freedom & lower house prices. Not just students but people in their 30's & 40's. Remember HPI is now spread across two generations. The media is concentrating on the Millenials, of course, but HPC bods were there first. Well over a decade ago I remember people on this site talking of a rage that would happen at some point in the future if the insaneness of HPI wasn't dealt with. We talked about as more & more younger people picked up the levers of power the HPI anger would just get louder & louder. One thing HPC didn't know (NOT didn't get wrong), was the timing of when this would happen. HPC has had many, unrecognised, firsts over the ensuing years.... and many false dawns. The timing is the most difficult thing to predict. But this time... I dare to dream.

    A perfect storm is rapidly approaching & HPC forecast it coming, years ago.

  2. On 6/11/2017 at 0:42 PM, Shrink Proof said:

    My daughter is at Uni in Canterbury. Has lived there for 3 years, rents a place, has a job in the city, pays tax & NI. Uses the local public services (needed an operation at the hospital last month). Yet you say she shouldn't vote there.

    Nice.

    I don't think this is being said. What IS unfair is your daughter gets to choose where her vote is worth more and has an unfair advantage(in fact there are Websites called whats my vote worth to help her decide & these were heavily taken up by the student vote). What about people who work away during the week & pay local taxes (council tax via rent on a crash pad) for instance?

    Tactical voting had a huge impact on this election. The correlations between the stop the Tories websites & the actual results shows this. It's not on that students could choose the best place to vote. This needs to change. Btw I'm non-partisan on this. I think boundary changes to help one party are also unfair.

     

  3. 1 minute ago, hotairmail said:

    Well, that's your dream at least. When trying to make money by betting, one has to leave one's opinions at home. My sense is Tory majority. An opportunity was created but has been closing. £ down c.1% now.

    I was kind of hoping for a hung parliament. For an HPC I think it would be best. Some Labour MP's privately querying exitpoll. Still early days.

  4. 1 minute ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

    Errrrr no.

    The opinion is the UKIP vote has gone back more to Labour than the Conservatives. Much of UKIPs support came from Labour anyway, and it seems those people won' vote Conservative.

    I disagree with you on that. That is what was *predicted* but so far going other way. But we'll see at end of night of course.

  5. 3 minutes ago, reddog said:

    Still holding out some hope for May, mainly because I am not as prepared as I'd like to be for economic meltdown.

     

    Maybe all the Tory voters voted by post, and hence weren't counted in the exit poll?

     

    Maybe we could have a Tory/Lib/DUP coalition, though no doubt the Libs would really want their pound of flesh for that.

     

    Although, as was said demographics have to kick in some time :(

    Exit poll does not include postal vote. I can't seem to find any figures on which party does best with this method. At a hunch I'd say Tories, probably why exit poll tends to underestimate them.

  6. 5 hours ago, durhamborn said:

    Housing is key as mentioned so many times on here,but rare anywhere else.A couple both working full time on NMW would have a nice standard of living if the mortgage/rent wasnt more than 20% of net income.Over time those housing costs would go to zero as the mortgage is paid.

    The problem is tax credits make it so you might as well have one working on 21 hours,or 16 hours if single.No point buying as HB pays the rent.Roll forward 18 years they have zero equity,still need to pay 100% of housing costs in rent and the kids are 18 and tax credits stop.

    We need BTL destroyed to make first time buyer houses much cheaper in areas where they arent.We need tax credits slashed by much more and the hours rules changes so people have to work full time,both in a couple.Tax credits make people do the least possible,then end up in poverty from their mid 40s with nothing to pass on to their children who simply repeat the same lifestyle mostly.Its a trap and the money would be better spent on housing.

    Whenever I read about the insane levels of tax credits I can't help but think there must've been a time in the early 2000s when tax credits were introduced (I think I read the budget report in the year they were, or they replaced something else, family credit or something) where a legion of single mums, quite literally overnight, were suddenly getting a shed load more in money then the previous week. They must've thought they hit the jackpot.

    Also, btc (before tax credits) siblings were always a couple, maybe three or four years apart at most. Nowadays it's not unusual as one kid hits 16, another is churned out with huge age gaps for no other reason then to max it out.

     

     

  7. Well the folk I know that do it just use a family or friends address. If you are staying on sites long term for work etc you can get amazon parcels etc delivered to you there or you can use the amazon collect service.

    I knwo I can flag my bank account as no fixed address and get no mail sent to it.

    Internet is a 4g mobile mifi and you can also fit a signal booster to your van.

    dont pay a tv license, ****** them

    Convert the propane to lpg system, its not expensive but means you can fill up your gas for heating etc at most filling stations across europe and you wont have to rely on bottles.

    Caravan club member ship will let you stay on sites for sometimes less than a £5 a day.

    MY own personal plan actually involved getting a small flat and an RV and going between both. Flats are gonna suffer badly in the HPC so I can get one even now and pay it off really quick, its more secure, less maintenance and no garden etc. Then I use it as my base and use the van to be where i want to be. As that fat bitch with the moustache says its location location location but it doesn't really matter where my flat is as I will just drive my holiday home to the best location or where i need to be. Doing it this way led to a better life for me and worked out less than half the cost of buying a family home.

    It is stupid I have to resort to such lengths but when i think about spunking 25 years of labour to pay off a shit three bed semi while someone else retires on my dime its not so bad.

    This is what I'm saying many people wouldn't have this option. Are they using a friends address for the electoral roll? Shouldn't be as you have to be at that address for a certain length of time during the year. Where are they the most? In your situation above your credit rating would be destroyed. Using a mates address isn't an option and is actually a big commitment the friend has to take on. The definition of "registered address" is a legal definition and your mate would be taking on quite a bit to say you are there when you are in fact wondering around the country in a van.

    You actually in law need this as a choice for registered address: The "I drive round the country & park up wherever" option. * The transient option. As far as I could work out this doesn't exist, so if you don't have mates or family that will let you, you're legally adrift & if you do have they are taking on a risk.

    I looked into all this when I wanted to live in a hotel a couple of years ago & just round robin at mates houses at weekends. I would have no registered address doing this, so I ended up as a lodger which was my worst living choice but it did provide me with the registered address. I would have much rather lived in a hotel & block booked it for weeks in advance to keep the cost down.

    * the closest option I could see for this was for workers on oil rigs but from memory they still assumed you had somewhere to call home when you were offshore.

  8. It is a good project.

    For the UK, my obvious questions would be 1) what would your registered address be? There are so many things denied to you without this. Ironically how would you even insure the van without an address in the UK, keeping up with the programming theme (recursion). What if you can't "just use your mums address" because your mum is dead or lives in a council house on her own on Housing Benefit. What then? 2) Again, how would this effect your credit rating?

    I'm not slating the idea, I think it's an option for certain demographics. It is a shame that you have to even consider it though.

  9. I am johnny and I think immigration is out of control but to blame hpi on it isn't completely accurate clearly.

    The Mass immigration argument is most definitely part of the "mix" along with not enough building and banks being on the hook for billions if house prices were to fall & all the props like zirp. But to take the Chuka Umana/Nicola Sturgeon approach that mass immigration doesn't have an impact on the supply siide is just nuts.

  10. Main story on the radio today about unaffordability. The hand of government trying to influence opinion, I wonder what's coming.

    No mention of getting rid of the props, so it won't be that.

    Was that the Radio 1 piece? Where they explained the reasons for high house prices but didn't mention the supply side issue of mass immigration once?

  11. Does anyone have a source of data for unclaimed NHS costs for EU nationals?

    The best I can find is a Telegraph article (April 2013). We reclaimed only £23M for treatment for people from Ireland and £6.3M for French. EU total reclaimed only £49M.

    EU nationals working here (I assume this means they pay NICs), get free NHS treatment and it's not reclaimed. If they choose to return to their country of origin for treatment, that country claims the money back from us.

    It makes you wonder just how much all this has cost the NHS over the past several years. My guess it adds up to several billion.

    Exactly. Not just the direct cost. That £350million a day suddenly does seem wrong. It seems like the figure is far too low.

  12. On balance with the speedy appt of the new PM and her appt of prominent brexiters, seeing the backs of the eton scumbags, things aren't looking too bad at the moment. Now when we stick the fingers to junker and invoke article 50, happy days..

    Agreed, I'm quietly surprised. My heart sank when I heard Remainer Amber Rudd was going to be Home Secretary although doing a bit of digging she has taken a hard line on illegal immigration. Dunno what her view on free movement is? Anyone? David Davis was my first choice for Minister for Brexit. This is good news. The best news. The most Eurosceptic minister & former contender for PM will be the spearpoint for negotiations. Liam Fox is also good news.

  13. No it isn't, it's just been proven beyond all reasonable doubt that Boomers don't care as much about forever HPI as a lot of people on here think. They've heard the scare stories about 20% drops from Nobsore and decided it doesn't matter much compared to sovereignty/democracy/whatever.

    Getting their now 30 something children who can't afford a super expensive house out of their house so they can downsize. Hear this a lot. Done partly out of familial altruism to help them out partly out of self interest because they really do want to downsize but don't want to kick their children out (to a land of super high rents). Boomers have done well enough out of decade+ hpi & they well know it. They have room & conscience for manoeuvre.

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