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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by aa3

  1. None of the mainstream forecasts have factored in the knock-on effects of rapidly rising unemployment. An obvious example is a newly unemployed person not being able to make their mortgage payment. Its amazing when you think about it, housing prices are down over 15% from peak, and the layoffs are just starting now. An anecdotal example is a number of young men my family knows just got fired from their construction jobs, where they were apprenticing and making good money. Now some are already planning on moving out of their rentals and back in with their parents.
  2. That is true, I should be careful to distinguish between individual lawyesr looking at opportunity, working hard and getting their qualifications, building up clients and succeeding..they didn't design the system. I myself am in accounting, and the exact same can be said about accountants. A simplistic tax and accounting system and we could get rid of 80% of accountants and not lose anything as a society. Specifically by making the rules bizarrely complex, it takes higher and higher skilled people to get the correct answer. While a simple system a bookeeper could handle things, and only unusual cases could go to an expert.
  3. Lawyers and the way the legal system operates to enrich lawyers have been a big factor in driving much business and industry out of the UK. One problem is when there isnt' much business or industry left in the country, there isn't many targest left for lawyers. Japan only has 5% of the lawyers that the UK has per capita, yet seems to function just fine.. actually better. If they were so needed and critical for the well being of a society, then Japan should be suffering the consequences of going without many lawyers.
  4. I'd take the time to vote for any party that was going to abolish our debt backed money system. And go to debt-free money.
  5. I totally agree with Injin, I think change is going to come from mass action outside of the political sphere. Democracy gives the illusion of choice, but every western democracy I see is always going the same direction. More socialism, more police state, more bureaucracy, a more powerful state. If there was a way to change that direction some country would have it. One way I've seen lately is simply cutting down the hours you work especially you get into higher tax brackets, and cutting down on what you buy. You could take a trip to Scotland paying endless taxes like gas taxes and fees along the way, and then paying for hotels and such and all the taxes they pay. Or you could go on a lovely hike through forest trails and farming roads with your family. Sure one person doing that doesn't do much, but if millions do, watch out in our consumer economy. I've found it somewhat liberating to view the government as the occupying thugs, and I'm under no illusion that I have even the slightest say over what they do. And I will respond to the rules and taxes they put in place in a way that makes sense for me. One example is none of my family's money is invested in the UK, as the investments seemed so uncertain with all their new carbon taxes and regulations.
  6. The-sign-jacker... great posts, I totally agree with you. I would add its not jus ta problem in rural areas, extend it to include urban areas as well. When no serious industry is allowed because of environmentalism NIMBYism, there are literally no good jobs. Working retail is no better than being on welfare, there is no future with it. I knwo a number of young men who simply have stopped even trying. They are just on benefits now after years of being marginally and temporarily employed at extremely low wages. While the price of things like houses went to astronomical levels. They know they could never afford a home, so they don't even try. Even though they don't describe it that way, because no one has put their thoughts into words for them. Its just the demoralized feeling they get without even really understanding it. Just older people telling them they are lazy and to do something with their life. A bunch more younger men I know have gotten fired in teh last few weeks from construction jobs.. and the ones I've seen aren't even looking for work this time. After all that work for the last few years they aren't noticeably ahead of their friends who just stayed on benefits..a couple are moving back in with their parents now. And there is endless amounts of older men with much more experience and qualifications ahead of them in line for any jobs which do come up. I'll never become bullish on the UK economy until I see NIMBYism and radical environmentalism/bureaucracy broken.
  7. Totally anecdotal but several young men I know have lost their jobs in construction or other fields hit by firings. They are leaving their apartments or buy-to-let rental deals and moving back in with their parents.
  8. Btw my personal opinion is the political parties and super rich will never give up a single bit of their power, even if it means their own demise. It will have to be forcibly taken from them.
  9. One problem for their printing scheme seems to be the 'filter down to average families' they mentioned. So far I'm seeing the bankers and high government bureaucrats 'filtering' 100% of the new money that comes in. And none getting to average families. I think they face a decisive choice soon. Ideologically both left and right in the west don't want average people to have more money(which is inherently more freedom and power for those people..), so they are resisting at all cost sending money to average people. Yet without the average person having money to spend all the elite's investments and such come tumbling down to nothing. If they took these hundred billion pound bailouts and sent the money directly to the citizens we'd be out of this crisis rapidly. Each 60 billion bailout would give 1,000 pounds to every man, woman and child in the country.. that would get people spending, and pump money into the economy. But it would defeat their main purpose of lording over average people either through government power micromanaging peoples lives or through making the people debt serfs or tenants.
  10. If they keep screwing over creditors, then eventually creditors refuse to invest their money anywhere.
  11. The middle class just doesn't have that much spending power to keep buying at the rate it was. Between wages being squeezed for decades, endless regulations preventing projects from going forward where good jobs are, and confiscatory levels of taxation(and new taxes like carbon taxes on the horizon) the middle class doesn't have that much money to spend. For the last 2 decades they made up for this by taking on ever rising amounts of credit. But now that mechanism is tapped out.
  12. There is no reason I can think of for a company to keep much employment in America. In India and China you pay less and get higher quality nowadays. Plus no worries about lawsuits, firing unwanted employees, pollution regulations etc.. The back office work should all go to India. And any manufacturing to China. Well the manufacturing already went because of the endless environmental regulations.. but the back office is going to go too now.
  13. On the bright side the greens should be thrilled as their own carbon footprint will be way down.
  14. b0rk, I wonder if there is a simple explanation for why they have not pushed for full disclosure. If the numbers are so bad that if they were made public it would cause a panic much greater than what we've seen. For example if we knew the government would likely have to bail out 2 trillion pounds worth over the next few years, it would cause a severe drop in the value of the pound. My feeling is the numbers are unimaginably bad, like their real derivatives exposure. And how huge their losses will be once mass foreclosures start in the UK as the house price falls.
  15. 4 pounds is an absurd amount for bus fare. Buses and trains lead to large monopolistic organizations running them by their nature. Those monopolistic organizations become huge bureaucracies, at least in the anglo-saxon world, where we seem unable to stop the growth of bureaucracy. Except through open competition simply killing off the unwieldy ones. So in the cost of that bus ticket I'm sure you are paying the hefty salary for the assistant director of empowerment in transportation to the comission on diversity.. who happens to be on paid leave due to stress. Or as others mentioned scam leasing deals with bankers, where there is corruption of some sort going on.
  16. Good points about velocity. My feeling is the powers that be know how bad it is and are just trying to survive for now. They can worry about high inflation in say 2011 if they make it that far. Of course hyperinflation seems to present them with some problems too.. it would seem to transfer wealth from the bankers to the home borrowers who pay back their loans with a fraction of the effort.
  17. I am a deflationist. I admit price inflation for these imported goods is possible though, because of the falling value of the pound. However so far the fall of the pound seems to be more than offset by the cratering demand for goods which is driving down prices. Look at the bargains during christmas, that wasn't inflation. -In the coming year fast falling rents as commercial space floods the market with all the closings could have a deflationary offsetting effect. -Also if there is falling worldwide demand, the producers will start to reduce their prices. -The raw materials costs for the producers are going to push through the system since the collapse of commodities -The shipping costs have collapsed look at the baltic dry index.. some of this is the oil price falling too
  18. 'Entertainment' or 'culture' as an economic base for a city is a failed idea if you want to have a high standard of living. You need industry where you can make relentless capital investment, allowing each worker to work with higher and higher amounts of capital. Eventually the wages of the workers becomes a rounding error against capital and material costs.
  19. Darn good point, I wasnt' even thinking of their obselecence when I wrote my post.
  20. Deflation from technological progress is a nightmare if you are an owner of capital or obscelete production. It seems great for the average person everytime it happens. To give an analogy if house prices were falling at 40% a year, like we see with computers, it would be a dream come true for anyone who wanted to own a home. But it would be a 'nightmare' for wealthy landlords like the types that own newspapers. And people wouldn't even need bankers involved in the picture.
  21. True conquest comes when a country realizes it is far better off under the rule of another country. Eg.. the many savage areas of the world England conquered and brought civilization and law and order to. To this day they love England, and honestly many look at how rich Hong Kong became compared to them and wonder 'why'd we have to go for independence?' Many still crowding onto the old railroads England built for them, having been unable to build a new rail line since independence. Likewise a lot of Europe realized it is better off under German management. This time by German mega-industrial corps. Its better to work at high and rising productivity in a German car company factory, than to work at a corrupt and failing domestic auto company. Plus the local government can extract more taxes from a factory with much higher output. And a well ran profitable car company can form capital with its profits, and use those to keep investing. I don't believe most European countries could run a huge and globally competitive industrial company to save their lives. Eg. can you even imagine a Polish based industrial company that had like 30 billion in revenues?
  22. Can you link that thread? 16 bn m3 sounds like we got most of our net imports from Gazprom.
  23. From the BP statistical report, looks like the UK had to import a net 20 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2007. 72 bcm of production, 92 bcm of consumption. In the year 2000 the UK exported about 12 billion cubic meters. 108 bcm of production, 96 bcm of consumption. Me personally I've always supported massive expansion of nuclear power. But I guess we gave in to the oil interests and decided to go with natural gas instead.
  24. Thanks very much for that graph. And also great idea the BP statistical review of world energy. I had forgotten about that report, a few years ago I spent many hours looking through it.. a goldmine for a statistics lover like myself.
  25. I'm looking for a good graph of UK oil production say 1970-2020 projection. Along with natural gas production. It seems to me that this is the UK's biggest industry in terms of making a real product.
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