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NMBAB

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About NMBAB

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  1. I have an aging Diesel, and my assumption is it will fairly shortly be worthless, given what we now know about the particulates and probable future policies against them. My intention is to keep it running as long as possible until either electric cars become cheap enough, or what I suspect is the even bigger disruption that may be coming, the coming together of Electrice Cars, Autonomous Cars, and Cars as a service. Think Uber with driverless cars, where you will get the same level of service for private transport for a fraction of the cost of car ownership. The point where car ownership becomes uneconomic and obselete.
  2. I wouldn't call it a dogs dinner, and nor would I currently dismiss hybrid given the costs of the current 200 mile plus electric vehicles, but when you think of the simplicity and elegance of the pure electric drive train, I would rather replace the weight and complexity (read potential maintenance costs) with the weight and range of Batteries. At some point in the not too distant future the economics and practicilaty of all electrics will overwhelm the benefits of hybrid
  3. People just look at the longest journey they have taken and don't actually think of their driving patterm. If you actually think about your driving pattern on a long journey combined with existing "Tesla Super Charging" standard, and assuming for a moment this charging standard or better was available everywhere (of course I know it currently isn't but it is not a big deal to get there), then according to all the research I have seen (this has all been analysed to death by the way by much bigger brains than mine) then minimum range to take electric cars mainstream, assuming any rational driving pattern and current recharging rate, is 200 miles. So we are already past this point. The maximum driving time between breaks is assumed to be around two hours before a break, and all analysis shows that the "five minute toilet break" is usually more like twenty minutes, enough to add a minimum of another 100 miles of range, plus a longer lunch break will easily give you your 600 miles plus driving range in a day.
  4. You are right that there is currently a massive tax advantage for electricity vs petrol, however when the actual cost of the car becomes lower then ICE vehicles, combined with paractically zero maintenance costs (there are only 18 moving parts in a Tesla drive train vs around 2000 in an ICE. Tesla offers an eight year unlimited mile warranty because electric cars will almost never break down). Let alone the "Fuel" costs are approx 90% cheaper and I don't see a roadmap to that changing, Are the Govt going to drop the tax on petrol? Are they going to massively up,the tax on electricity? How are they going to tax to the electricity you generate from your own solar panels? Even assuming they find a way of equalising the"fuel" costs it is still going to be a no brainier to go electric. And above all that have you had a look at the customer satisfaction surveys for Tesla owners? They are literally off the charts, they are the highest customer satisfaction rating for any car ever.
  5. Agreed, Musk has put the inevitable on steroids. and agreed the batteries are nothing special, and that is the beauty of it, no breakthroughs etc. What he has done is some minor incremental improvements in the actual technology and some major improvements/efficiency gains in the manufacturing process by bringing the whole battery production process from raw materials to batteries under one roof on a massive scale. And not just what Tesla is doing, they have sparked an arms race with the likes of BYD in China, LG Chem and Samsung SDI all playing the mines bigger than your game as they try to catch up/pass Tesla. This is all going to accelerate the Battery cost curve leading to everr cheaper batteries. And yes getting back on topic, combine the battery cost curve with the solar cost curve , which is the opposite of the cost curve for all other forms of generation other than wind, and this is going to lead to massive disruption to the existing energy markets. Solar on its own is already braking through grid parity in more and more places every year, and when solar and batteries breaks through grid parity and keeps going to where it is even cheaper than transmission costs, such that even if conventional generation was free it could not compete. That is the point when everyone will say they always knew Hinckley Point C for what it is, folly on stilts.
  6. And by the way this is not about brandishing green credentials, this is pure economics, electric cars are about to become overwhelmingly and unarguably cheaper to buy, with running costs orders of magnitude cheaper than ICE. If you want the flush money down the loo because it looks a bit diifucult to plug in one of those new fangledvelectrics cars be my guest.
  7. Hard to know if this is sarcasm or just an extremely lame attempt to diss all those different. Plugging in the old vacuum cleaner looks a bit complicated vs using the old broom. Do you often forget to fill your car up with fuel when it is running low?
  8. I take it you didn't actually read my post about the 5% of journeys above 200 miles. Do you just hop in your car and drive continuously for 600 miles? Even assuming you can maintain a 70 mph average you are going to drive continuously for more than 8.5 hours. No resting every two hours so you don't get too tired and cause accidents? No comforts breaks? No lunch? As I tried to show in my previous post if you bothered to a read it you could easily do 600 miles in a day of travelling with recharging at the driving breaks you would/should be taking during the day, assuming the Tesl Super charging standard, without adding any extra time to your journey above what would do in an ICE.
  9. All this 2 stroke vs 4 stroke is like two bald men arguing over a comb, you are not seeing the disruption that is coming. Within 10 years all new vehicles will be electric. Tesla has already broken the two hundred mile range barrier, so there is no need for range extenders. For ninety five plus percent of journeys the average driver will get nowhere near this. And for longer journeys if you think about your driving pattern on a long journey you don't just get in your car and drive all day without stopping, there will be comfort breaks, rest breaks, lunch etc, and assuming Tesla standard super chargers, each stop of say twenty minutes tops up around 50% capacity (adds another 100plus miles). Lunch for an hour gives 80% recharge. This is already the case right now and all those data points are only going to improve, new startup Lucid partnering with Samsung SDI for the batteries is claiming a 400 mile range for its new car to be launched In 2018. If you actually think about it you will actually spend less time refuelling your car when it is electric because it is something that happens while you are doing other things. Tesla has already become the best selling car in the luxury car segment in the US and my guess is it would be swallowing even more market share if it could up its production rate. With the coming of its new model 3 it will start to eat into the medium segment of the car market. They have around half a million orders for a car that is about a year away from production, when was the last time that happened, I suspect never. With the battery cost curve declining relentlessly, in the next few years Tesla or someone will be producing a lower market segment car. The batteries keep dropping in price and incrementally improving in range and lifecycle and at some point electric cars will be cheaper than ICE. Throw in the almost zero maintenance and fuel (electricity) cost per mile being around 90% cheaper than ICE fuel and it will simply make no economic sense to buy an ICE vehicle. I am not predicting Tesla will be the ultimate winner out of this, but a couple of things stand out in its favour, it has a substantial lead on the ICE encumbents, and it is almost always outsiders that win during disruptions not the encumbents. With electric cars the three most important factors are Batteries, Batteries, Batteries, and the encumbents are nowhere on those three, they are still investing in ICE, like Kodak investing in a new generation of film.
  10. We had a company called Gigaclear, who specialise in providing Fibre to rural and semi rural communities canvassing for interest in our area recently. This is proper fibre to the premises where you get the speed you pay for, not some up to mythical speed nobody gets with BT's rubbish Fbre to the cabinet, where the speeds are literally a post code lottery depending on if you live more than a stones throw from your cabinet. I would have crawled over broken glass to get their service but the idea was met with a wall of indifference, whinging and outright hostility that I am still struggling to comprehend. And so I am left in broadband no mans land with no chance of either BT or the government doing anything about it. Contrast that with my recent trip to NZ where I stayed with an old friend in a small rural town in the remote South Island. I was pleasantly surprised with the broadband speed and when I did a speed test I nearly fell off my chair, I was getting 200mbps. They had the same situation as here, a monopoly incumbent making every excuse under the sun as to why it was too expensive to upgrade. Then the NZ govt did something we can only dream about, they came up with a 10 year plan to fibre up most urban and semi rural area, proper FTTP with a guaranteed minimum speed of 100mbps and wireless for more remote areas with 50mbps. The encumbent could get with the program or lose its customer base, and if they wanted to be involved in the new fibre network they had to sell off their retail operations. And guess what it has cost the Nz govt very little as the encumbent fights to keep its network and suddenly has found large quantities of investment capital down the back of the sofa. BT would rather point to Australia and its failed FTTP program, you won't hear them mention NZ, which is becoming the poster child for how this sort of thing should be done.
  11. This discovery was not about the property exactly but it still made my day. While viewing a property noticed a couple of champagne flutes and an ice bucket with what looked like an empty champagne bottle on a coffee table. Estate agent lady was a bit puzzled, said something along the lines that they should have tidied up, the lady of the house new we were coming for a viewing. Anyway eventually went upstairs and opened the door to the master bedroom and there is this guy and a younger woman going at it on the bed. We quickly all scuttled out of the house, the estate agent lady was apologising profusely and getting really upset and saying that was not his wife, I was trying to make jokes like "can we have another viewing" and "does she come with the house", my missus was giving me daggers and saying that is not funny, then the bloke strolls out cool as a cucumber as if nothing had happened offers to show us the house (wearing dressing gown and slippers). Estate agent lady declines on our behalf saying we might come back for a viewing at a more appropriate time. I giggled like a school boy all the way home. Estate agent lady calls up to ask if we want another viewing, tells us apparently it was his secretary, I said let us know when they are selling the house after the divorce.
  12. The great and the good are trying to figure out how to get the car moving again. They had put it in gear and started the engine but the car did not move. They were sure if they pushed a little on the pedal on the right marked “rate cuts” that would get things moving. At first they gingerly tapped on the rate cut pedal, the engine revved up a little but no movement. They then decided what was needed was a bold initiative, they would give it a decent push, that would sort it out. The engine revved a lot louder but still no action. They all hopped out of the car and took a stroll down to the cliff edge. As they looked out across the pond they noticed a bunch of guys wearing cowboy hats who were also trying to get their SUV moving. They noticed they were trying the same thing as them but had pushed the pedal more times and much further. See we must be on the right track they all agreed. One passer by noticed that although the guys in the car across the pond had pushed their rate cut pedal further their car was still not moving. He also related a story about a bunch of guys he knew with a Toyota who had been trying the same thing for years but to no avail and now their car engine was falling apart. The great and the good shouted him down saying it’s the right thing to do everyone else is doing it. So they returned to the car and continued to push the rate cut pedal until it was almost all the way to the bottom. By this stage the engine was screaming and smoke was pouring out the exhaust pipe. The great and the good were confused, after all they were doing the right thing but still the car did not budge. As they all scratched their heads one of them noticed there was a stick wedged against the clutch keeping it pressed down. On closer inspection they realised the stick was in fact a magic wand with the words “Quantitative Easing” carved on the side. There was also a sticker with the words “Warning- Do Not Remove” in big red letters. The great and the good conferred and after much discussion decided they would ignore the warning and remove the wand and once the car was moving they could quickly replace the it in order to control the car. They had no other option, it was not like they could stand idly by and do nothing. So they all climbed into the car and with the rate cut pedal still fully depressed removed the wand. There was a load screeching as the wheels spun violently with smoke pouring from the tyres. Suddenly the wheels gripped and the car lurched forward causing the guy who was holding the wand to be thrown violently back into his seat and the wand to fly out the window. The car raced down the road picking up speed until it reached HyperDrive speed at which point it took off and flew over the cliff and they all died a horrible death. THE END You didn’t expect a parable about people playing around with the quantitative easing magic stick to have a happy ending did you?
  13. The great and the good are trying to figure out how to get the car moving again. They had put it in gear and started the engine but the car did not move. They were sure if they pushed a little on the pedal on the right marked “rate cuts” that would get things moving. At first they gingerly tapped on the rate cut pedal, the engine revved up a little but no movement. They then decided what was needed was a bold initiative, they would give it a decent push, that would sort it out. The engine revved a lot louder but still no action. They all hopped out of the car and took a stroll down to the cliff edge. As they looked out across the pond they noticed a bunch of guys wearing cowboy hats who were also trying to get their SUV moving. They noticed they were trying the same thing as them but had pushed the pedal more times and much further. See we must be on the right track they all agreed. One passer by noticed that although the guys in the car across the pond had pushed their rate cut pedal further their car was still not moving. He also related a story about a bunch of guys he knew with a Toyota who had been trying the same thing for years but to no avail and now their car engine was falling apart. The great and the good shouted him down saying it’s the right thing to do everyone else is doing it. So they returned to the car and continued to push the rate cut pedal until it was almost all the way to the bottom. By this stage the engine was screaming and smoke was pouring out the exhaust pipe. The great and the good were confused, after all they were doing the right thing but still the car did not budge. As they all scratched their heads one of them noticed there was a stick wedged against the clutch keeping it pressed down. On closer inspection they realised the stick was in fact a magic wand with the words “Quantitative Easing” carved on the side. There was also a sticker with the words “Warning- Do Not Remove” in big red letters. The great and the good conferred and after much discussion decided they would ignore the warning and remove the wand and once the car was moving they could quickly replace the it in order to control the car. They had no other option, it was not like they could stand idly by and do nothing. So they all climbed into the car and with the rate cut pedal still fully depressed removed the wand. There was a load screeching as the wheels spun violently with smoke pouring from the tyres. Suddenly the wheels gripped and the car lurched forward causing the guy who was holding the wand to be thrown violently back into his seat and the wand to fly out the window. The car raced down the road picking up speed until it reached HyperDrive speed at which point it took off and flew over the cliff and they all died a horrible death. THE END You didn’t expect a parable about people playing around with the quantitative easing magic stick to have a happy ending did you?
  14. How about this for a possible reason why rates should be higher The basic idea is cut base rates by n basis points and you hand back n basis point times outstanding mortgage pool into the pockets of hard working families so they can race down to the shops and save us all. In my mind without thinking too hard about it at least three factors spring into my small brain that undermine this cunning plan; 1. The reality that the vast majority of the outstanding mortgage pool will not see all or even any of the n basis point reduction (in fact some Mortgage rates appear to be heading back up) 2. Those who actually find their mortgage rates being reduced and go off message by using the extra money to reduce their outstanding debt 3. The effect of the base rate cuts on savers. Found this back of a fag packet analysis of the NET effect of base rate cuts in NZ http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/02/04/analysis-why-the-ocr-cuts-are-taking-soooo-long-to-be-felt/ My understanding is as follows; Mortgage Interest Reduction = Outstanding Mortgage Pool * Weighted Reduction in Mortgage Interest Rates (Passed on in full to all those who owned a goat named Gerald, as for the rest …..) Saving Interest Reduction = Savings Pool and * Weighted Reduction in Savings Interest Rates (Pretty much 100% base rate change passed on in full at the speed of light) Net Effect = Mortgage Interest Reduction – Savings Interest Reduction From the NZ article their analysis shows Net Effect = great big negative number, in other words rather than increasing the amount of money available for consumer spending it has drastically reduced it. Anyone have the brains and data sources to be able to do the same for the UK? No question in my mind it would make NZ’s great big negative number look like pocket change. Chalk up another outstanding victory for the ministry of unintended consequences.
  15. We go into this storm with record low levels of snowfall We are uniquely well paced to weather this storm It started in Russia I won't stand idly by while hard working families freeze to death, unlike the do nothing Tories This is a global storm which requires a global solution Meterologists need to restore snow to 2007 levels I have been warning about this storm for ten years but nobody listened to me We will get out of this storm by exporting snow to China No more Summer and Winter
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