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Everything posted by HERMY

  1. Your attitude is appalling............... im not goin to waste my time explaining stuff to you........... I dont get paid to do it m not your advisor............ I can assure u I am not lacking knowledge and I can assure you I know the significance........ But obviously you dont u pr!ck .................... Nobody is stating that yous have been wrong have I stated that have I argued otherwise NO All i Know is You wont be fit to buy a house for less than it costs to build for ever it is as sustainable as the boom........ and if you dont think they exist............. well it shows how little you really know about what is happening out there............... Selling houses at less than it costs to build is as sustainable as the boom.................. If you cant see that thats your loss.......... I get the feeling you wouldnt know good advice or a good price even if you seen it ? ? Nobody with half a brain will say things were sustainable before, I have never heard anyone argue otherwise............. You are more than welcome to wallow in your doom and gloom but if you dont get of your bum and look you will never see what I am talking about............
  2. HERMY

    Oil Crash

    'Mr Mephisto' looks like profiteering on the way down again by shorting positions. Better to underestimate....... i guess time will tell makes you wonder about the old talk of shortage of oil...... is it all propaganada? From what I hear this line has been used for 30 odd years I wonder is it the same thing as we are running out of land in Ireland cos we are on an Island...... From what I see there is enough land in ireland for everyone
  3. HERMY

    Oil Crash

    Possibly he had to talk the market up at the time to get his own shares sold at the peak...................
  4. Young FTB the ignorance which exists by others is unfounded. In response to your "who gives a shit!" Possibly you should and you should look into things deeper and listen to good advice when you get it. You deserve a "Pat on the Back" for your useful post.......
  5. Just a shame Mr slump that bulls are clearly made unwelcome on this site This is one of my last posts as there is no point commenting on a site where back slapping for bears (Pessimists) and ridicule of bulls (Optimists) why bother posting lifes too short and you may as well let those who want to wallow in doom and gloom continue. Long live free speech Optimists are not welcome on this site Mr slump which is why this is one of my last posts..... You want info that may be of use look up current 5yr 10 yr and 30 yr swap rates For anyone who doesnt know the significance of them go look them up.....Im not even goin to waste my time explaining........ try looking up the report below....... Jones Lang LaSalle Corporate Finance Market Monitor 11 December 2008 Knowledge is everything Have a nice life
  6. Guys just a matter of interest how much was a house in the 70's 80's or 90,s 00's......... Has the value went up between each period ? There have been troughs and peaks during this period also........ but in the long term. Short term we are going through a price adjustment it doesnt mean that the advantage of leverage and value still dont apply if you buy properly Everybody needs SHELTER
  7. You could have bought houses recently at less than it cost to build them............. No need to worry about negative there ehh ? ? But with the recent government intervention and lower interest rates that panic selling and blow out phase is coming to an end....... Blowing things out just to generate pure and simple cash was just about as sustainable as the Boom itself
  8. Agricultural land in NI is way Overvalued even more so than Houses Were. For starters our land is not what you would call prime agricultural but yet even in a slump it attracts levels which are 3 or 4 times more than workable prime farmland on the mainland....... The belief in agricultural land by the older generation is dating back to the famine times......................... "No Kiddin" Agricultural values are held up by farmers who got big money for development land and have to spend or reinvest it before the taxman takes the money on them.................. I see agricultural land as a liability as its ROC (Return on Capital) in minimal and with the high costs in maintaining decent land in fencing and ground care.......... It really has to be the best way to loose money in my ideas........... I could think of better things to do with my money than put it into NI agricultural land............ its only any use if you have other motives that it becomes a good investment..... And thats coming from a Bull
  9. Makes you wonder guys are we heading for a re-valuation of Global currencies in April 09 when the G20 get down to it. Are local currencues preparing themselves for something bigger ......... Hmm.............. Makes you wonder.......... I have suspected this for a long time..... and have mentionned it before on this site
  10. Not with the Government Intervention on halting repo's
  11. Of course the same scenario applies to houses.......... of course people are scared spending money however despite all that is said I know I am currently in a house which I am sure you are as well at this moment of time Man has three basic needs FOOD SHELTER AND WATER These basic needs have existed since man existed and will never change................... People always need shelter whether they rent, live with parents or buy. I guess Buying your first house is the last step which is why many refer to it as getting on the property ladder as it is the first big step from the security of living at home or renting to buying..... People need shelter recession or no recession and just because they are scared of sepnding money doesnt mean they wont pay their rent or mortgage as people realise that shelter is a basic need. People will buy when they feel comfortable........ nobody should force them............ but sometimes if it makes financial sense to buy with acceptable prices in terms of affordability etc vs renting then people will slowly regain confidence in home ownership again. Properties will some day return to 2007 levels and everyone knows that 07 levels are a long way off...... but they will return
  12. It does solve it the problems of afordability and debt as it give central government to react quicker to situations. I do understand the deposit scenario etc however you will see builders offering incentives and I believe we will also see the government act on this in the new year possibly with a scheme offered to attract FTB back on the market who they know are the lifeblood of the market, Banks are also back to 90%LTV for First Time Buyers they wouldnt do this if they reckoned the bottom wasnt near as they are jeprodising their own money by offering such a low LTV ............ I feel the government hasnt addressed this situation yet as they know its pointless as FTB's are spooked...... Wait until the New Year in NI to see a change in the situation here............ U will suddenly remember this post and what I have been saying all along. Watch this Space Most people I know have asked a parent to perhaps go as Gaurauntor on a loan for a house...... banks love to see this for their own peace of mind but it could enable you to get a house with a lower LTV (Loan to Value). Wages will increase over the next few years however we may have to wait a little longer for a significant increase at least in the private sector plus there is a new Gov Scheme for I believe 2010 to do with Private companies to pay pension contributions so watch the media for the out roar on this........... REMEMBER - No-one will ever tell you there is no risk in buying a home..........and very few will tell you you got a deal when you buy....... u have got to trust your judgement on this one. U will look at the posts I have written on this form in the next few months and realise that I am not terribly far off the mark despite the criticisms that many of my posts receive.
  13. All I will say is that some areas are reacting slower than others alot depends on Estate Agents ability to adapt and survive mentality or stay stagnant and die scenario, and I know this because I follow things very closely. Some deals are below RV because sellers were looking to blow them out as they needed cash quickly but I know this will not last and RV's figures in certain areas are debatebale some are too low. They are not totally consistent I believe in terms of value. There are differences of 20 and 25k in the value of equal houses in similar areas in the same towns...... if you look at your own town you will note this. I believe these were blown out at the blowout phase before they level out slightly higher in their stagnant period, some of the deals were too good to be true and I am not kiddin....... some people will have done very well once we eventually move out of the current crisis. Buy when others are most fearful and sell when confidence is plentiful.
  14. debt_ridden_ftb if you actively look I can assure you deals are there that are definitely better than you would get in normal times. Once all the doom and gloom stops the blow out phase will have finished. But then again. Dont listen to me watch the change in this forum over the next few months as the sheeple keep up with the real time activity on the ground. Dont forget if you compare this crisis in property in the 1990s the internet in its current form did not exist and the world was a very different place. Mobiles were only for yupee's again the masses didnt have them. forums like this didint exist and nor did information flow at the speed at which it flows at today. To give a very simple idea 1990's - A letter at its best took a day thats 24 hours or thereabouts to reach its receipient and another 24 / 48 hours till you get your reply where as today in 2008/9 - U write your post, i receive it instantly and reply instantly in the 1990s the above would have taken 3-4 days. Huge advantage of technology..... We can ahev info overload as well and if you go away on holidays think about this you will realise that life moves at an extraordinary pace today.
  15. To be fair I believe people are quickly adapting to the situation we are in as they are finally realising it is adapt and survive or remain stagnant and fail. The deal that was pointed put on this post was not the first one many have already went through already and many people have already bought fantastic deals............. When i pointed this out recently I was given abuse as people were asking for proof which I can not provide on the transactions I witnessed as it is confidential information which I hold.......... I am sure you will realise that perhaps the speed of this downturn could also return to "normality" just as quick as the abnormaility occurred in NI. Things around us are happening on a daily basis and I believe the internet and the speed of communication of data and facts may be contributory factors to the speed of peoples realisation that its either adapt or die.... The human race are survivors and will do what it takes to survive as quickly as possible as they realise that it is too late to stop a bleed once all the blood has emptied the body. I truly believe that this situation will sort itself out sooner than many imagine,
  16. Quote from VT's Thesis The effects of low interest rates in this economy will be disastrous, as the price of oil, gas and raw materials that we need to import will be very costly. perhaps this chart of Japanese land prices tells a story about a low interest rate economy I do note your comments and I support your thinking however I believe at this precise moment in history the Risks are too great and will be for quite the foreseeable future. I believe we ahev reached a new parady in Interest rates for the next 10-15 years. The government can control inflation like a tap. It has the ability to control many factors...... Did you know we can produce enough oil of the coast of GB to leave us in a sustainable position. I know the older generation talk about the times that Interest Rates rose from 12 % to 18 %........... I know this was a horriffic time for people then but I am always very quick to point out that the rise from the all time lows of 11th July 2003 of 3.5% to the peak of the latest splurge of inflation where rates rose too 5.75% at the peak of this inflationary period on the 5th of July 07 the percentage difference is greater from trough to peak with a rise of 64% which is 14% higher than the last period of high inflation. Also important to note how government data in terms of measuring inflation has being twisted and adapted to show lower inflationary pressures than that of the past, by leaving out many of the components of the past. This is all a bit heavy for a Sunday Night.......... The world is cooling down again and I believe it will return to normality quicker than many think.
  17. I do believe that many on this site realise how the government views property and how reliant they are on it for survival If you are hoping prices to drop to a £! you will be forded to leave the country as our countries economy will be dead Do not underestimate the destruction it would cause................ Why do you think the government and the Global Economies are doing all they can to avert a crisis bigger than the one we are currently in...
  18. VT I respect your oppinions and views however I am also aware that sometimes you can look too deep into things Im not dissagreeing with you but if you reckon we are goin this way the site should be changed to Global Financial Meltdown and the extinction of mankind as we know it. If houses go to the level of that in the US I personally will support our economy as i reckon I can buy about 50,000 houses if we are heading for the Dollar Houses. This should work out well if the DHSS will pay about £400 per month this means I can £2,250,000 per month yes 2 and a quarter million per month in Rent. HAPPY DAYS G20 will sort it out in April....... I have full confidence....... I see our int rates remaining low for some time to allow the banks to recapitalise and allow the ordinary people who bought over-valued houses to recapitalise........... I dont think extremely high inflation will be a concern for quite a while people are scared of spending money and this will continue for some time. We will see a return to the median and natural house price increases from there forward....... People will be more cautious and in a few years time I reckon we will look at this whole crisis and think what was all the panic was about. The Global Risks of the "Economic World" Failing are so great that they are so aware and they have their work cut out to get through it that we can agree upon however....... the world has faced crisis before and recovered. As some one put it the other day to me the world has a habit of overheating and cooling again its a natural cycle. So lets not panic
  19. Prices are already down to acceptable levels if people get of their bums and look for them
  20. I dont believe 100k is a bad price with a decent deposit your mortgage would be 75k and a nice solid home / investment
  21. Who said bargains didnt exist but oh no its easier to shoot people down cos thats what people do on this site ? ? ? Yet another sign of the recovery ? ? ? Anyone know what sort of area this is ? ? Do you think this is still too dear ? Do you think it would get £30,000 ?
  22. Belfast Boy I am curious to know? What do you believe should happen or what way do you envisage next 5 - 10 years going forward ? ? ?
  23. I see weebobby you are taking my advice from an earlier post however This has already happened in NI alot of deals have already been snapped up behind closed doors in EA in NI In addition I wouldnt bother emailing............ I think you need to go and introduce yourself and get familiar with them and show them your serious.......... Estate agents are like second hand car dealers they get used to the tyre kickers which is why the personal approach is better. Email can be seen as people fishing for info as you could be absolutely anyone hiding behind an email address. If they see you are serious face to face you will have greater success as they would love to do a deal.
  24. U will see interest rates head to 1% in jan/feb 09 after christmas sales results and these will possible drop to 0% shortly after Ok sorry breaks the mould on this site to post recovery info.......... sorry must be Bah Humbug to be accepted on this site We need more of these faces on this website
  25. MORE SIGNS OF RECOVERY - FACT NOT PROPAGANDA http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/dec/0...tgages-property Return of 90% mortgages Good news for first-time Buyers Miles Brignall The Guardian, Saturday December 6 2008 The first affordable mortgages for those borrowing up to 90% of the home's value have surfaced this week after disappearing during the credit crisis. On Wednesday First Direct, the internet arm of HSBC, launched a lifetime tracker mortgage of base rate plus 1.69% - giving an initial charging rate of just 3.69%. But its major attraction is that it allows buyers or remortgagers to borrow up to 90%. What's more, it comes with a relatively low fee of £399. "This is the best deal for some time and it looks like it is going to be very popular," says Richard Morea of mortgage broker London & Country. "It was launched on Wednesday (before the base rate reduction) so I'm assuming that it will actually go on sale. The market has been crying out for a reasonably priced tracker for some time - this is going to be snapped up." He said Cheltenham & Gloucester has also gone back in to the 90% market with two fixed rate deals. The first, at an attractive headline rate of 3.89%, carries a punitive 2.5% fee, only good if you are borrowing a relatively small amount. The second will appeal more to first-time buyers, priced at 5.69% with a £1,000 fee. First-time buyers unable to raise deposits of 25% have been pushed out the market at a time when some analysts have said they were needed most.
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