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House Price Crash Forum


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About monster

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  1. Look now we know you're loaded with you £million house Does that mean you're going to shoot us in your country estate
  2. On what basis will Will this still happen if unemployment carries on rising? Will this still happen if banks will generally offer mortgages @ 60%, 75%, 80% LTV? Will this still happen if FTB are not getting on the ladder due to 'mortgage availability'? Will this still happen if the media and numerous 'economists' in the media believe prices will go even lower? Will this still happen if people buy, no longer as an investment but as a 'home'? I could go on, but will not bore you. Everyone has an opinion on the subject, however if you seriously believe you statement has any validity, then I would say you do so at your own peril, and with the knowledge that there is a significant amount of data available on the economic situation in the UK that would 'suggest' such an occurrence highly unlikely! As an aside, perhaps to highlight any bias I may or may not have on the subject, I myself have just bought. Even though I managed to get a significant discount, I believe the price of my house will reduce even more (40-50% below peak), but do I care? No!
  3. No it's not. Every decision we make as individuals is based on our level of comfort, knowledge, are we risk averse etc. My post was addressing the psychological aspect of buying an asset, doesn't have to be a house, that is depreciating in value. Under what situation(s) would individuals still choose to buy such an asset; perhaps the desire to have a home? But at what cost? I am just in the process of completing, however for the majority of people that I know, I would not recommend buying at this juncture in time. So no I am not an EA or work for a think tank that is a consultant for a major building company.
  4. Hmm, would have to disagree. Why would an EA laugh him out of the office? If it's a new build, i think your offer of 66% of asking price is reasonable, and don't forget a new build will always have that extra premium, a bit like buying a new car! (ok, not exactly, but i'm sure you know what I mean) What you will have to do is tell the EA how strong your position is; - No Chain - Finance in place - Can exchange/complete quickly ie 4-6 weeks - I appreciate the developer thinks it's worth x, I think it's worth y, and based on the mortgage offer i have and the LTV requirement, this is all i am going to offer (if the EA asks, make out your mortgage offer requires 60% LTV) If the EA then gives you the normal spin etc and says your offer has been rejected, just say thanks, let me know if anything else comes up on your books within my price. Do not call the EA back. That is the key, it's a waiting game, you have to be patient. You have to remember that in order to get a low offer accepted, 30-40% off the asking price, the vendors situation has to be such that they are 'forced' sellers. By this i mean they need to sell to upsize, downsize, divorce etc. You need to view a lot a properties and in all probability will have to make quite a few offers at 30-40% below asking price before someone bites.
  5. Thanks for the replies. The main reason for starting the thread is to try and understand the 'psychology' behind buying an asset which is depreciating. Of course the first fundamental is being 'aware' that prices are and will continue to reduce by x% over y years. The concept behind an 'asset', in this case a property, has evolved somewhat in the last decade, as it is was not seen as a 'home', more of an investment. In my view it will take a while to change this mindset, however, when we do eventually reach the bottom of the market, the scars remain for many. This will change the behavior of individuals with regard to property and investment, and I believe we will endure a property scenario similar to that of Japan, with very little if any rises over the coming years. So what am I trying to allude to? As discussed with my mate, unless it's long term and your dream home, and you're not planning to move from for the next 10+ years, why on earth would you buy now? Unless that is, you still think you'll be able to make some money when you sell it
  6. As the title would suggest, started discussing with a friend. Would be intrigued to know the reason(s) if you are, why buy property now? a) Believe prices have bottomed out Have found the 'perfect' house and don't feel you'll have another opportunity to find something similar c) An investment (BTL) and feel you will get the necessary return d) Don't believe all the doom and gloom as prices will eventually go up e) Other reasons
  7. The reality however is that only those that need to sell for xx reason are likely to take a reduction based on future price falls. Think of it like a closing down sale in a shop - all stock must go at 40-50% off. You're not going to get the likes of John Lewis et al doing this! They may offer 20% off now, will see how it goes but have no need to sell at any more than that. Yes in 2010 they may decide due to various factors they need to offer 35% off, but they will not be offering that in 2009! So, it depends on which product you care to buy
  8. Right place, right time, right price! For everyone it's going to depend on a number of variables. We'd been renting for 3 years, been looking to buy for 4 years, and seen over 100 properties. Have just bought, at 30% below 2007 peak, and I know that prices will drop further. It is however, as with most things, opportunity cost. Is the property you're about to buy a transitionary move or is it a long term home? Do you think you'll be able to find such a property again if you were to wait a year? Are you prepared to see your home drop in value after you've bought it? The reason why we bought were based on numerous factors; in general we wanted something big enough for the long term, didn't believe such a property on this road would come up again (or didn't want to take the risk), were happy with the price we paid given the location and aware that the price in our view would drop roughly 40% + from the peak. The only advice I could give to anyone, as with someone selling during the peak - never try to sell at the peak because no one knows when the peak is, until it's gone and then it's too late! Never try and buy at the bottom, because you'll never know. Set yourself a figure of what you're prepared to pay eg. 30% or 40% off peak and work towards that. And don't forget it's a buyer's market and will be for a long time!
  9. the programme makers and C4 realise that there is a huge market here; there are thousands and an ever increasing number of people on this site looking to purchase a property, when the prices have dropped to £xxx. When the market flattens, what better audience to have. I would say if HPC do, then take this into account, as you don't want to sell the space too cheaply.
  10. Is this a serious post or a wind up? If serious, then are you homeless? If not, then why don't you stay where you are or do you feel that society owes you? If homeless, then you have my sympathy, especially during these cold months, and I think you should just focus on staying somewhere warm, rather that trying to make it your's. Somehow I doubt whether you are, unless you've got a laptop with free wifi, in which case I humbly apologise.
  11. Don't worry about the usual negative comments, some individuals like to be in that position of perceived power. My advice, learn from this episode, spend some money on a good conveyancing solicitor and if need be, walk away if it means that you've only lost your deposit. Best of luck
  12. As with most other views, I believe rates will stay low through 2009 and perhaps 2010. The government / BOE will try and do everything to avoid deflation, and by doing so would rather overcook it and have high inflation. On this assumption, interest rates could reach near double or even double figures. I would be tempted to go for a BOE lifetime tracker with no tie in, and then towards the end of 2009 or start of 2010, if you can get a good 10 year fixed rate at say 4-4.5%, go for that.
  13. I think what you have to ask yourselves is how much do you really want this house? Is this the dream house for you and your wife? Is it likely that another property like this will come on the market in the next 1 to 2 years? Assuming you are not a cash purchaser, can you afford the re-payments? If you have answered yes, no, yes, I would make an offer. Why? Because if it's a home, and you don't intend moving for a long time, it's irrelevant what you paid for the property, so long as you can afford it and are happy in the knowledge that whatever you end up paying for it, it'll be worth potentially less in one year. I you do intend to make an offer, I would make one based on these factors. Forget the hype over the last few years, the boom years, and ask yourself how much do you think the property is worth to you? How much have properties sold on that road dating back to 2001? As a ceiling price, take a 2001 price for a similar property and factor in a house price inflation of 4%/year. This is in my view what the property is currently worth assuming there is NO CREDIT CRUNCH and the economy is ticking along nicely. This is the maximum figure I would personally pay if I had answered yes, no, yes. Of course, it'll be a long long time before we get out of this financial hole, and I believe prices will come down 35-40% from the peak of 2007 (depending on location and property type), so take this into account. One last point, don't forget that there are very few people with that kind of money, able to buy that kind of house in these times. The estate agent knows that, and make him aware that you know that as well.
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