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Posts posted by MISS JONES

  1. Miss (Mr) Jones

    There is only so much brown and his side kick darling can do to what they call 'help' the economy.

    He will attempt to pour billions into protecting his precious housing market as this is what he based the success of the UK on.

    I firmly believe that Brown is still in the denial stage, 10 years of growth over!! he clearly cannot accept it, growth like this is unsustainable. An inflating housing market contributes nothing in the long term for the economy or GDP.

    Brown is only engineering all this ponzi schemes until the next general election, thats when their sell by date expires. This policies are only aiming to 'smooth' the ride until he leaves office - sometime soon!

    I agree totally with your comment

    What is the alternative ??

    If the housing market did collapse totally the whole fabric of the UK economy would collapse with it.


  2. A few years ago agricultural land was selling for as little as 3-4k an acre.

    Today it's selling between 12-15k an acre.

    I bought land lately was on market at 120K and bid up to 182k !!

    Even during the crunch it seems to be gaining value.

    The older generation say put your money in the ground. Are they right ??

    Remember we are on a small island with limited agricultural land. Certain counties have very limited farmland.

    Any views ??


  3. you REALLY believe what that pair of a...holes spew to the public???

    they don't care about individuals

    they know we're entering a depression and it looks to me like all this bailout and pressuring banks is setting them up

    to take the fall for them

    I don't listen to the 2 pri$$ks after all they were one of the major factors why the crunch happened, but money talks and they are pumping it in.

    Like any business that's struggling, what do you do, either let it go bst or inject it with cash and restructure and hope to f$$k it works !! :unsure:

    I still feel that well researched property in really desirable areas will be sheltered from the crunch, to an extent. Like I've stated in previous posts detached have only fallen 1.1% in a year, so a good detached in a really good location should be a safe medium to long term investment.


  4. Again you're hoping that the bailouts work. Can you explain why they will? If, say, BT was re-nationalised tomorrow, would you expect good or bad results? If you're in it for the long haul and making money, then why would you care what prices fall to? Surely you would be encouraging falls for the long-term health of the economy?

    As Brown and Badger have stated "We will do whatever it takes to bring the housing market under control and protect homeowners from losing their homes"

    Brown will pour billions into the economy, what is the alternative ??

    On point 2, regardless if it's long or short term no investor likes to see the ar$e fall out of their stock value. The more it falls the longer it will take to recover.

    Nobody knows when and for what reason you might need to turn stock into liquid funds. Maybe health reasons or whatever.


  5. Your reasoning (and that of other bulls) seems to rely on the idea that the government will come to the rescue. Scheme after scheme has been tried and nothing has worked. The government are powerless against market forces. Can you provide any evidence of government interference in the economy having worked before?

    Sorry, to me your argument sounds more like hope than reason.

    Detached prices will be the last to drop because they are at the top of the ladder. This simply illustrates what I have been saying, that the crash will play out for much longer than people expect. Houses at unrealistic prices will not sell, will eventually be removed from the market and be replaced with those at a more realistic price. Thus the market price/expectation will drop.

    The government have never bailed out banks and there have never been state owned banks in the UK ever, so an example is not obtainable. N.I. in my view cannot be compared with previous crashes like Tokyo etc. as the market isn't cut and dry, there are hundreds of factors to consider and a lot are "local issues".

    Most bears seem to think bulls on this site are relying on the state to sponsor their property portfolios, they also think the bulls are in for a "quick kill". This is not the case for me anyhows, I bought pre-boom at discounted prices, I actually built 4 of them, so it doesn't come much cheaper than that. I know prices will fall but I'm in for the long haul 10-15 years, a pension or even pass them on to the kids !!

    But I do believe the drop is slowing gradually as University Of Ulster statement and detached have only dropped 1.1% in 12 months, so this is not a disaster for me anyway.


  6. To me, bulls seem to have the idea that this is a temporary drop before things get back to 'normal'. However the reality is that 'normal' is about 3.5 times average salary, because of what banks are traditionally prepared to lend. Once we understand that the credit conditions leading to the bubble were a departure from the norm and therefore the bubble was the departure from the norm and that the credit conditions cannot be repeated, it is easy to understand that prices will fall 60% (without even allowing for overshoot) from the peak and stay there for years. This process cannot be stopped, no matter what happens.

    Rising prices from inflation are irrelevant - the correct ratio will still be reached. Any bull thinking that they will be 'proved right' or 'saved' by inflation simply doesn't understand inflation.

    I am a realist, I know prices will drop by perhaps 40% and stay "level" for a few years after that.

    But as an investor & developer I know build cost and site costs. I also know government can't afford the whole nation slipping too deep into zero equity, hence the muti billion pound bailouts, mortgage "holidays" etc. As I've stated in previous posts, why sell your house for pittance when interest rates will soon be zero and banks are giving clients 2 year payment breaks effectively letting home owners live in their homes for 2 years "rent free".

    I have read the past market very well and know the market will not spring back to previous prices like some foolish investors believe. But with all due respect I honestly can't see it dropping beyond 40-45%. I feel the drop is starting to slow now as per latest university of Ulster figures released last week, in fact in that report it states detached houses have only slipped by 1.1% in the previous 12 months !!


  7. no insult intended

    Fair enough :rolleyes:

    55% is a guide, however this "model" works better in higher quality areas with good school etc.

    This would go someway to protecting yor percentage buffer.

    Granted the model wouldn't work so well in say a council estate in West Belfast.

    But in good areas 55% will stand up all day long. In my opinion anyhows :rolleyes:


  8. Many bears wouldnt have predicted what has happened and the vast majority of bulls were convinced that any form of a drop was outright IMPOSSIBLE. So predicting anything now is a risk.

    Agreed, however would you agree that it in "unlikely" to drop by 55%

  9. negative equity = duh

    30% below book now could be 10% over book in a couple of months

    whatever the book is?

    didn't you say don't believev everything you read?

    surely the biggest work of fiction / lies is the book of recent valuations

    Mr. Slump,

    Duh, Why the insult ( again ) ??

    House prices have already dropped by 25% so by buying with further 30% = 55% below book.

    I think this allows for any future decrease in value, I can't see prices dropping 55 % can you ?? :huh:

    My understanding of "book" would be a property SOLD in the area within the last 3 months.


  10. Couldn't agree more and I think that the govt should take steps to verify true income before they let anyone join the scheme.

    Agreed BTL's should be treated as any business.

    If the cashflow isn't there or the model is wrong. TOUGH S$$T

    Why should BTL's be any different than say a pub or shop ?

    Brokers should face the full rigor of the law for false applications !

    What system is in place to vet this FRAUD ??

    It seems the only time this is discovered is when buyers default on payments.

    Isn't this what started the sub-prime domino affect ??


  11. Thanks for the info.

    I was assuming that this was someone who had paid off their mortgage and wanted to rent the house out to go travelling for a year for example.

    Would be interesting to see what rental yields actually are once costs and tax are taken off them...makes what might seem like a good rental yield look a bit less attractive.

    Hi Joe Davola,

    This is a great way to get on the ladder.

    Go traveling and as long as your rent covers your loan and any repairs, rates etc. your sorted.

    Look for an area with few rentals about in a good location. Again look for schools, bus routes, employment etc.

    Do what i suggested by placing an add in the local paper and try to get 25-30% discount, this would act as your buffer against valuation slipage.

    Good Luck !! :rolleyes:


  12. Thank you -- might give that a go after christmas.

    you're welcome :rolleyes:

    Another simple one

    Find an area you really like in your price range.

    Get some flyers printed "again stating 25-30% and cash waiting" and pay the local paper boy/girl to post them or diy.

    Be persistant as people's lives change, the crunch,divorce etc.etc.

    You might be suprised !!


  13. Unfortunately I do not have access to a crystal ball so I have to go through Propertynews and propertypal for listings. It would take years to build up a network of contacts. That's why I like this forum because information is disseminated from all areas of NI and Paul's auction reports are invaluable.


    There is more than one way to skin a cat.

    One quick easy thing to try:

    Put an advert in your local paper



    Even if you don't have cash with this discount getting a quick loan will be easy. Get a loan in principle from the bank for a set amount, this will speed things up also.

    You will have a smaller deposit to raise as ltv is there.

    Another bonus no agent fees !

    I have friends who do this and pick up some really nice property !!


  14. Well, I've put two people on ignore this evening, for the first time since joining this forum.

    This NI forum has sadly gone down hill. I enjoy talking to bulls/neithers with constructive arguments which don't follow my opinion. In fact, I'm happy to update my opinion based on sound, reasoned arguments, but some of the rubbish posted here recently have spoilt the sense of community.

    Ballymena Boy, I'm happy to read your posts. While our circumstances and ambitions are completely different, it's interesting to read another perspective. However, the rest of the bulls who have joined recently have mostly just trolled.

    Maybe life with those ignored will be better, but it's a shame 1. we've have had to assign a moderator and 2. I've had to ignore anyone. Hopefully, the trolls will go away when they get bored.

    Very grown up.

    Shame you won't listen, even you could learn something ;)


  15. I tried offering 2005 price to an agent of one property recently. The house was on with 3 agents, sitting empty, and had appeared on TDGTTS. I was told I was idiotic to put in such an insane offer. So there is not a lot of sense out there yet among the estate agents.


    I have never, ever bought of an EA. By the time they get their grubby, greedy little mitts on the listing it's too late. They are liars and can't be trusted. :ph34r:

    Don't buy through agents or propertynews, it's all rubbish.

    The only way to buy is before it's listed, this is the true value!!


  16. ok no abuse

    but why don't you just accept people want to wait

    whats in it for you if everyone rushes out now to buy?

    really this line of questioning is very tired

    people will buy when theyre ready

    for most the time is not right and when the prices get to an acceptable level they will not start to rise again for some time

    this does not mean people are in denial or that theyre angry

    theyre being patient, live with it

    what diference does it make to you anyway?

    its like youre on some demented crusade

    No abuse either,

    I believe within the next few months the house price drops will slow, interest rates will drop and house sales will move.

    Brown and badger are giving 2 year repayment holidays etc.

    With this bail out and the interest rate drop etc. why sell cheap ??

    Bargain prices will dry up very quickly towards the end of next year.

    Buy now with a 30% discount and take your pick !

    Timing is crucial.

    It's like going to a party

    You don't want to be first there

    You don't want to be the last one there either as there's no beer left and you end up emptying the ashtrays !!!


  17. I smell the desperation leaking from the bulls trousers.

    Hi Pootle,

    Your ok according to you money trickles down the inside of your trousers. :P

    I invested wisely pre boom, built and sold 19 houses and 6 apartments price range £ 160k-795k during the height of the boom, retained 2 new builds and bought a further 2 new builds of developer friends at heavily discounted prices. I bought 1 more a while back at an UK auction again heavily discounted. I bought 16 acres ( potential development land ) last week of a farmer friend at 12k an acre ( bought due to fathers death followed by a family dispute ). I have mortgages at 50% on the last 2. All houses are rented to decent hard working familys ( long term) and 1 through DHSS again long term. My house is paid for as is the land I just bought as are the vans, the civic type r,as is RRover as is all my plant, track machines,dumpers etc.etc. I also have a very healthy bank account with quite a bit locked in at 6% for next 9 months, low interest rates brill news for borrowing "cheap money" if required for bigger ventures !!

    Life is good with cheap fuel, clothes, food, gadgets etc. Recession bring it on !!

    Thankfully nothing is leaking down my trousers and won't be EVER :lol:

    If you need info. how to make money through property now I can answer any questions you want. It's still easy ;)


  18. I said "a coherent, internally consistent economic case for widespread capital expenditure on residential and commercial property in Northern Ireland". You have not answered that. All you have done is shown some sums that, in isolation, prove nothing. That is not "a coherent, internally consistent economic case for widespread capital expenditure on residential and commercial property in Northern Ireland."

    As for the insults, why?

    Did I tell any bears to go F$$$ yourself ?

    They are the ones with the chip on their shoulders and you have the golden ar$e ;)


    why do you want figures on commercial buildings in N.I.?

    Are you planning on moving into a shed ??

    If I buy a house it is an educated, calculated purchase based on many things like location, schools, population, employment, transport links , houses for sale or rent in the area, leisure etc.etc.etc.

    I do my own research and "micro " report. This is known as wit and using your head. I don't buy crap in crappy areas !!

    If I wanted a report on global economic trends I would get one from the net, but it serves no purpose when I want to buy a house in Lisburn !!

    Must go now xmas shopping calls, you know how it is.



  19. Hermy, Mr Jones,

    Please feel free to post a coherent, internally consistent economic case for widespread capital expenditure on residential and commercial property in Northern Ireland. If you can do this then you might actually persuade some people that now is the time to buy. However, I will not be swayed by arguments such as "you just can't handle the truth", whenever I have formed a logical, consistent viewpoint many years back and watched it unfold. This is the challenge you face.

    Pootle get them notes over the radiator and get back on the pot. Time is money !! ;)

    Again one of my previous post ignored if you read it it tells you how to buy, where to buy and gives a breakdown of costs, yields etc etc.

    Again if you read it it explains why there still bargains to be had and money to be made, if you are smart enough.

    As for projections and futures from the BBC and press articles and professors etc. For every article you dig up there is a counter article elsewhere from another fortune telling expert professor of economics. So this tit for tat news crap could go on for a million years and end back where this " debate" started.

    Also a lot of articles you bears dig up are English based, we live in N.I. here we have a severe shortage of social housing helped slightly by private land lords. We're also a spec on the map with very limited land , useless planning systems, a growing population all the things that make land and houses a solid "long to medium" term investment. :huh:

    Now bears scurry along to find another smart **** "expert" with limied views.

    As my grandfather corperal Jones from Dad's Army would say:

    "They don't like it up em you know"

    "Who" says pikey,

    " The fussy wussys with the bearskin hats, they don't like it up em !!"


  20. I would not call £75,000 'giving it away.' £75,000 is alot of money.

    £75,000 is roughly 3.5 times the average Northern Ireland wage of £21,000.

    The average house cost around £75,000 just 6 years ago, in 2002. Then the credit boom started. Now we have the credit crunch. When the credit boom gets crunched, I expect house prices to return to the same level as before the boom.

    Simple to understand really.

    Why not wait until you can buy a house for a years salary ??

    Do banks not take the view that houses are a "long term " asset ?

    I know a brickie lives in Tonbridge Wells. Wages £ 750 week rent 3 bed semi £ 1150 per month

    I know a brickie here wages £ 500 week. Rent £ 550 per month

    So N.I houses and rents are overpriced try living in Kent council tax etc etc. and by the way the wages aren't twice what they are here, nowhere close so how are we overpriced.


    Keep your cash in the bank and live off the interest. :lol::lol:


  21. THANK GOODNESS its not just me thinking that................

    By the way you fancy a 3 bed semi in Lisburn for a goat and a loaf of bread. ;)

    Have to give them something to moan about for another day...................... :P

    Sorry Hermy I only have half a loaf but you know the saying.

    Half a loaf is better than no loaf !! :lol:


    Hello sir remember me, I'm the boy you said would never be

    The boy you said look don't touch, the boy who wouldn't amount to much

    That's right my name's Bob the one who landed the builder's job

    The boy you like to reduce to tears, the boy you suppressed for five whole years

    Yes sir now I'm here and your still there with your fake sports car and receeding hair,

    Wearing farah trousers you think are smart married to the woman who teaches art,

    Married to the life married to the school. Be a developer now who's the fool.

    Buying houses you thought I was barmy, go out thingy join the army

    There again I suppose it would do for the negative dick$$$ds just like you

    As for me bargains beckon, houses to buy in a recession

    Here I sit in first class, so fu$k off sir, kiss my ass !! :P:P


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