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House Price Crash Forum

Dr Renter

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Everything posted by Dr Renter

  1. wow, clearly a Daily Mail fanatic. A few points. 1. The above problems do occur in the NHS but it's because of lack of funds in the right areas. Nurses looking after 12 patients, doctors looking after 40 patients, meeting targets that don't take into consideration the patient experience. 2. You seem to have an unshakable hatred of the NHS, yet i'm sure you would be the first to complain if the NHS was disbanded and you realised how much simple things like an X-ray or GP appointment costs. 3. The quality of doctors is going to declne significantly over the next decade because comparable professions such as architects, lawyers and engineer are paid more, have kinder working patterns and better perks. I shall be strongly advising my children to not become doctors.
  2. yes, let's tar all public sector workers with the same brush. Next time you're seriously let's hope the cuts don't mean that you're left dying on a hospital trolley. As for being overpaid, my private sector friends who I would consider intellectual equivalents, all get paid more and work less hours.
  3. It wouldn't be the weekend without at least one black Monday thread.
  4. Our savings were mainly in ISAs. Inflation running above the interest rates means savings erosion. As for building up equity. We are extending and modernising the house which may do it, plus the mortgage is very affordable so we will be able to save aswell as pay the mortgage off.
  5. Sorry, but I'm simply not buying that. I can't see any investment vehicle that is going to turn about £300 per month into £200k over 10 years, unless you have a crystal ball.
  6. I don't disagree, I was simply responding to a question about why some people saw renting as wasted money. One think I will say is that the opportunity cost of renting in a rising market is greater than the opportunity cost of owning in a falling market. And in a stagnant market the opportunity cost of renting is higher than owning.
  7. Yes, but as it can only be determined after the fact, what's the point.
  8. I feel your pain. Bath is the area we bought in and prices are very high indeed. Unfortunately it is just within the London commuter belt and is a magnet for couples who've made their money in London, and are looking for a place to have a family. It's a beautiful city with excellent schools and low crime...... you get what you pay for.
  9. Not for me, that's why I didn't buy in 2007. I actually expected a much deeper drop in prices, and then expected more falls at the end of 2009. I missed the bottom of the market, but to time it that well takes a lot of luck. From what I'm seeing in my local area falls aren't on the horizon, maybe over the winter but my feeling is that we are heading for stagnation in nominal prices with a good dose of inflation.
  10. You may be right, then again you may be wrong. Is that 33% off the trough or the secondary peak?
  11. It wasn't clear from your post that you were factoring in a 33% drop in prices. If I thought prices were going to drop 33% then I clearly wouldn't have bought. The reality is that the sort of drop you're talking about is unlikely.
  12. If you have a repayment mortgage you'll only pay interest for the duration of the mortgage. In 25 years time I'll have no mortgage and hence no interest payments. If I rented for say 5 more years and then bought a house, I would still have 25 years worth of interest payments. Thus the 5 years of rent, about £7k, are an additional cost. Now you could argue that the extra 5 years come at the end of the term, so the £7k needs to be adjusted for 25 years of inflation, but it's an additional cost none the less. If you plan on having an interest only mortgage then the rent is not wasted money as you're in an identical position to a renter.
  13. So, another one bites the dust. The truth is, that I just got sick of waiting and being screwed over by government policy. House prices may rise, stay the same or fall, it has just become impossible to pedict, so I took the option that I felt hedges against the most outcomes. The bottom line in the UK seems to be that it's much better being a home owner than a renter. The decision wasn't made lightly because the bear within was still convinced that prices would drop. However I'd been saying that since summer 2009 and despite the poor fundamental, they just keep rising. I kept a very close eye on the local market, as one does, and at the start of the year there were some reasonably priced houses coming to market. However, they were selling within days, with many going to sealed bids. A house came up for sale that was reasonably priced, even taking into account that it needed some work doing to it, had 4 bedrooms with room for extension and had a forced seller due to the need to move into sheltered housing. We started at 15% below asking and to our surprise had an offer accepted at 9% below asking within days of going to market. It was bought with a 5-year fix at 3 times income, so no horrible surprises for at least 5 years!!!! The main reasons for buying were: 1. Inflation & low interest rates eroding our savings. 2. Inflation is clearly the intended outcome, so its better to be leveraged than a saver. 3. We can live in this house for ever if the market tanks. 4. Nominal price stagnation seems very likely, making it relatively easy to hop up the ladder in the net few years. So that's the story, we moved in 2 weeks ago and it's job done... family home owner. Not the outcome I expected in 2008, but a still a satisfactory one for me and the family.
  14. IMO this is the main problem. The non-working stock have a higher birth rate than the working stock, mostly because workers can afford less children. This will have a huge knock-on effect as children born into non-working households are less likely to work themselves. Soon we will reach the point where the workers can't afford to subsidise the non-workers, if indeed it hasn't been reached already.
  15. Not sure why you are including childcare vouchers. Firstly they are offset against a persons personal tax allowance. Secondly they make it financially viable for many more mothers to return to work. The extra tax receipts far outweigh the 'cost' of the vouchers themselves.
  16. There is no disputing the fact that inheritance has increased substantially in the last decade, mainly as a result of the property boom. As one poster has stated, a significant inheritance could be equal to the lifetime earnings of an average earner. We've got to the stage now where the main predictor of your lifestyle Is how rich your parents are. This has become a major barrier to social mobility and is to the detriment of society. We are heading back to Victorian times when property was almost exclusively owned by a rich elite.
  17. I totally agree with you. The fundamentals are poor but you simply can't ignore what is happening in your local area. I still agree with the HPC mantra that there should be another dip coming up, however, the level of Market manipulation by government policy is unprecedented and who knows how far they will go to prop it up. I started actively looking to buy last month.. The local Market has gone mad..... Houses being sold within a day, sealed bids, waiting days to view a property. A House came up this weekend that was a 4-bed in a village location with a good school for under £250k - almost unheard of in our area. It needs a bit of work but we don't mind that. The vendors were desperate to sell so we offered 15% below asking and yesterday agreed on 10% below asking. My feeling is that the Market is impossible to predict so the best thing to do is hedge against as many outcomes as you can. Owning a house is good in a rising and stagnant Market, if interest rates are low and if inflation is high, which is pretty much what is currently happening. If the Market drops, and IMO will be a maximum of 20%, we have our deposit to cushion us and the property is well below the street ceiling price. If interest rates rise, which looks unlikely, we can comfortably afford the mortgage upto around 5% and at that level inflation will be reducing our debt burden. So, I've taken the plunge. HPC wasn't what we'd hoped but we still payed about 15% below peak. Time to enjoy home ownership and start paying off a mortgage. We intend to move relatively swiftly up the ladder so price stagnation will do me nicely.
  18. From what I've been seeing locally over the last 2 months I'm saying +1.2%. Activity has definately picked up, not sure how, but I've been saying that for the last 6 months.
  19. Double post. This new website really is shyte.
  20. What a fantastic post. Hits the nail on the head. Problem is that things won't change until those on the right side of the boom are out of power. That's going to take over 20 years. Oh well, at least my children may have a chance.
  21. Absolutely. The trend line is just bollix. As you say, it's exponential and by definition the rate of rise continues to increase. Totally unrealistic unless you live in HPI VI land.
  22. 20% of all new jobs created under Labour are in NHS And yet the numbers of doctors and nurses are falling. What does that tell you?
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