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housingbubble

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About housingbubble

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  1. Homebuilder stocks have been on a tear for the last few years here. They have pulled back quite a bit lately where down today. There is plenty of fluff built into the housing market. But realistically, the system is so rigged that anything will be done to postpone a fall. In the meantime, our country goes deeper in debt and the housing bubble continues.
  2. Link Critics, including Alan Greenspan, say that this is only allowed because investors seem to think that there is a hidden, or implied, guarantee to the bonds that Fannie Mae sells ([1]). Although the company describes them as having no guarantee, nevertheless the vast majority of investors believe that the Government would prevent them from defaulting on their debt, and so buy bonds that are very low interest rates compared to the risk.
  3. Yeah, just is a little rampant corruption at our biggest mortgage provider. BTW, they loan money to anyone who breaths, on inflated properties, then package up those loans and sell them on the secondary market at near government bond rates. Did I mention they are the largest provider of mortgages in the US?
  4. The US coal mine floor is littered with canaries! Yet, complacency is rampant. We are a rather manic bunch though, so I anticipate it turning on a dime.
  5. FNM Stock Price Fannie Mae's (the US's biggest mortgage provider) stock fell over 10% today on rumors of more accounting scandals. It is a new 52 week low and around a 5 billion $ loss in market value. It would probably be bankrupt without government support.
  6. Interesting info. Thanks. Sounds like you guys are well ahead of us in the cycle. What do the media pundits say ? It is hard to get past all the salesmen here to understand the real situation. Here is a link from today: U.S. existing home sales rise
  7. Interesting chart. So prices are down ? What are typical financing terms in the UK ? How far do prices have to fall for typical buyers to lose their equity and get upside down on their mortgage ?
  8. There hasn't been much acknowledgement of a slowdown here yet, and I am not sure it is slowing yet. I went out looking at open houses last weekend. Anecdotal evidence, but it sure looked as crazy as ever in my neck of the woods. Nail guns going off everwhere with houses being built and people crowding into the almost finished ones to see the amenities. It was like a social event. Where are you guys in the cycle ?
  9. Looks I didn't take into account the time differential when making my post. Just another clueless Yank. Oh well, hello to you late night bubble followers.
  10. Federal Reserve Board Governor Donald L. Kohn spoke last friday. There were some really interesting quotes in this speech. Here are a couple of them: By increasing the return to saving and by damping the upward momentum in housing prices, rising interest rates should induce an increase in the personal savings rate, and thereby lessen one of the significant spending imbalances we have noted. A couple of years ago I was fairly confident that the rise in real estate prices primarily reflected low interest rates, good growth in disposable income, and favorable demographics. Prices have gone up
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