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Everything posted by SNACR

  1. I'm just making this up, but if depression refers to massively depressed demand and given we've got this in housing, automotive, retail, scrap metals, commodities etc. I'd have thought we're in one.
  2. I presume the BBC have sheeples' bedtime officially at 11:35pm.
  3. Don't worry the technology is well on the way to doing away with supermarket checkout staff altogether another huge chunk of the workforce to be chucked on the benefits scrapheap. Notwithstanding self-scan checkouts, look at how with chip and pin you put your own card in the machine and out the number in. Tescos have move the receipt printers to the front of the checkout so you take your own receipt. It's not accidental people are being conditioned so serving themselves becomes habit and expensive checkout operators become obsolete. Irony is that the checkout operator will loftily tell you to put your own card in the machine and take your own receipt. Unfortunately they're not bright enough to realise they're contributing towards their own obsolescence.
  4. Didn't Clarkson lose a load in AIG, looks like there might be quite a few celebrity credit crunch victims. I'm a celebrity get me an IVA, might have legs.
  5. It's the often very earnest audience members who clearly believe they're making an important interaction with the political process that really make me despair. I also can't stand Dimbleby who seems to think chairing a debate is blurting out things about what some politician said in a speech years ago that a researcher's just googled and shouted down his earpiece. He seems to make a great play that this is very important whilst closing down debate when anyone in the audience actually has a point worth making. In fairness, his brother doesn't seem to be quite so bad on Any Questions, I listen to that as my methadone.
  6. I think the OP said it's merely been mentioned they could be made redundant. This is a very common, but unfair ploy. Management always mention potential redundancies in the hope that some employees will find other work and leave of their own accord. This is always the cleanest way to wave goodbye to employees. Sadly, it can often be the case that even after a large chunk of staff have left of their own accord the remaining are still made redundant. It's a useful way for employer's to mitigate losses that's very unfair on employees. Also, although redundancy can provide a much needed monetary payout, the fact someone's been made redundant does cause the cogs in any future interviewing employer's head to start whirring as to whether there was a 'reason' that person was made redundant.
  7. Oh joy, my weekly confirmation that our entire political system is a pointless charade.
  8. Their stock turn is much greater than 60 days could well be pushing 12 months so a lot of stock has been paid for. On top of that they've been having to pay up front in a lot of cases. Only suppliers who will be trying to collect stock will be those who went uninsured (is actually quite a few). Only stock worth having will be stock in outers still in RDCs. Cost of uplift stock in shops across 800 branches will mean that would be unviable. No problem with rents they're paid until end Dec. Only major outgoings for administrators is staff and their own fees. I'm guessing a bit, but I can well imagine Woolies would normally easily clear £100k/week on average across the group in Dec. My smallest branches of only 1000sqft average £15k/week all through Dec. I'd have thought average Woolies branch is knocking on for 10,000sqft. Woolies trade is very much geared towards xmas. The banks know how much Woolies stuff in their account at xmas, if they didn't think they could recoup a lot of the cash this way they'd have done the deal with Hilco. Finally, genuine closing down sales are so lucrative you cannot imagine. That's way retailers were always so keen on fake ones until it was cracked down on. You get a herd instinct buying frenzy and typically take at least quadruple normal turnover. It goes so nuts you wonder if you're doing the right thing closing down. We generally try and sell of the fixtures and fittings, price guns etc. People go so mad thinking they're getting a bargain that we've never got less than what we originally paid for the fixtures and fittings. Remember also in non-food Chinese import type product the retailer is still making a good margin even at half price.
  9. Are you trade too? I can't see it being a good idea getting on the hook for a load of Woolies leases, even less at a premium, to job off stock when come next year there'll be so much stuff coming to the market that LLs will be falling over themselves to do soft deals.
  10. Half a million pounds of stock at retail value for stores the size of Woolies would be very little I would say more (based on knowing what we carry). It would only be 5000 skus with £100 at retail in branch of each. On top of this they have got masses and masses of inventory in RDCs. Realising the best part of £300 million in a fire sale at this time of year should be doable.
  11. Plenty on that list that couldn't be sourced from the decimated UK manufacturing industry. It long ago stopped being just tat from China they make virtually every non-food item in some form. Having said that some food in the form of confectionery has started coming in from China. Quite a bit of Halloween big boxes of trick or treat sweets came in from China this year. Jelly gum type sweets seem to be the most common. Also look out for xmas cakes with sugar decorations with an insane amount of hand-finishing this will have, most likely, come from China even if cake baked in UK. The packaging will just say something like product of more than one country. I'd strongly avoid it all, especially after the melamine milk scare.
  12. Commercial property values are based on the assumption of tenants paying rent. I speak to people in commercial property and they say it's alright all my tenant's are blue chip covenant strength so we''l be alright. What's blue chip covenant strength? Like a bank or a building society or something. I like the bit about commercial property never having been easy to value. Could've fooled me, in the last few years it just seemed to be a case of multiplying the annual rent by at least 20 times. Every town you drive through has a new build extensive business park of offices and industrial units, who wants them? Commercial property has definitely got s long, long way to fall.
  13. Well I might as well not bother opening my stores this weekend while everyone goes and lines the pockets of Woolies' lenders. Sounds like it's going to be the first mainstream full on firesale. A lot of the stuff that's gone under recently like Select, MK One, Rosebys etc have just carried on trading in administration with very modest discounts. It looks like the banks took the view that in the current market there was little value in the property leases and the stocks on the shelves were their main chance. If Woolies was having to pay upfront for a lot of it there won't be any retention of title issues, they may even get a large chunk back which would have been destined to LLs at the end of Dec. Some suppliers will be able to get their stock back, others won't. A lot of the same suppliers have been hit with the double whammy of Magsons going down in York they were a CTN type wholesaler of toys and stationery that had some fairly big accounts like Co-op, Somerfield and McColls. Many of their customers were small independent newsagents and POs the decline of which was their main problem and also I think a younger generation of the family had embarked on an aggressive acquisition spree. I'm not surprised they've restricted access things tend to walkies big style in administration, I know of one company where the entire lorry fleet disappeared one night. I doubt there's any buyer in the wings the fact Dalgleish has been brought in so early suggests the units will simply be marketed vacant possession with the possibly unrealistic expectation of premiums. People are still taking stuff though it sound like The Range are taking on quite a few MFIs. My guess is there will be a lot of keys going back to LLs early next year. Statutory redundancy payout can be claimed from govt if employer insolvent used to be through tribunal service, not sure if it still is.
  14. If it's Perrys in Somerset I think we used you at one point, all our depots have been on a national deal with SCA for some time. We've got a proper mountain of mill-sized baled card they won't collect. We'd invested in an all singing/dancing belt fed machine and now we'd have been better off chucking it in skips. I spoke to the guy who runs the compant that supplied the balers and he said it never got to the point where the material was worthless even in the depths of the last recession.
  15. Bit weird money off vouchers for the vets, surely the dog's either sick or it's not.
  16. Not such a good place as it sounds, that's where all the real money is.
  17. A lot of Naomi Klein's 'Shock Doctrine' is in a similar vein she's a bit lefty for my liking though.
  18. Same inflation problem with qualifications as the money supply. Too many in circulation and have therefore become worthless. Govt gives you a prize and you think it's worth something, then you eventually realise the govt has given everyone else the same prize. This takes the sheen off the prize and everyone decides they don't want to play the game anymore.
  19. Uh oh, looks like more govt red tape I'm not complying with.
  20. That was always the irony with the whole environmental/recycling packaging zealots. They completely missed the point, the landfills weren't getting filled just with empty boxes most of it was the ephemeral tat that came in it. This year a lot of shops have got those chocolate fountain things again that look like a flooding sewer, why did anyone ever want let alone need one. Seriously though it's not just the pointless tat that's an issue someone was telling me that it's products like safety pins and a lot of hardware/DIY products.
  21. There is still no real widespread comprehension of just how bad this is going to get.
  22. I think it's been underestimated how interconnected the whole thing is and also the effect of having had so much consolidation. Allowing credit insurance to be dominated by just three companies is part of the disaster in the same way building society demutualisation and consolidation has left mortgage origination in the hands of so few. This last quarter we're well into the domino effect that will end in catastrophe and govts are powerless to stop it. The man on the street has very little awareness of how things have changed. There are single factories in China that produce the entire world's supply of some products. When they go down I predict lengthy newspaper articles listing hundreds of basic items that are simply unobtainable.
  23. Whenever sales fall in a business a mass hunt always ensues as to where those sales have gone, you see this commonly in the media. ie High St sales down ergo they must have gone online/mail order. Quite often companies will foolishly cut prices/advertise/promote to try and get the business back. Quite often, now in particular, this is a complete waste of money as in fact the business has just gone the customer is not spending their money with you or anyone else.
  24. DVD depth of stock in Tesco looking very thin currently, pretty sure they were with EUK. If they don't get covering stock in PDQ they'll be driving a lot of xmas footfall to Asda.
  25. Some big brands won't deal direct with retailers even if they're huge to try to keep a lid on grey product. Hewlett Packard used to be one such company, don't know if still are. Not really, has serious liquid assets ringfenced. His call will be whether he throws personal wealth to save face in the media. If things got sticky he should let his Cinderella fascia BHS go rather than pump in cash. Like everyone else rents and rent review increases will be his big problem. He repaid the acquisition finance, like many, by sale and leaseback deals on the stores. Rents will be reviewed on an upward only increase typically every 5 years. This is crippling from a cashflow point of view when it means the rents on your entire estate increase at the same time. Sale and leaseback (MEW for companies) started to become all the rage, guess what, about 5 years ago. Oops.
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