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Posts posted by SNACR

  1. On 13/12/2016 at 9:12 PM, frederico said:

    Not heard about this one but I did see a programme about shipping biomass pellets from America in the 100 of thousands of tons to fuel drax for a couple of hours, seemed to be a hugely inefficient and very expensive way of getting fuel to the power station.

    Still those American renewable foresters are doing alright.


    I saw that programme. Fascinating unwitting insight into the government's full retard 'green' sustainable energy charade.

    It was quite cool the way they lifted that little bulldozer into the hold of the bulk carrier and drove it around on top of the pellets though.

  2. 50 minutes ago, spyguy said:

    You could not have a batter example of how poor BTL underwriting and risk assessment is , by both bank and lender.

    Oooh - OO mortgages risky, what is the mortgagee loses theiur job.

    BTL - no risk at all. Infinite supply of renters. If IRs go up, then put the rent up.


    It's always been like that with commercial property.

  3. The thing is a lot of jobs tend to be more susceptible to knock-on changes in behaviour, caused by automation.

    Sales reps haven't been replaced by a robot buzzing round with a pilot case full of samples, instead, businesses just order online.

    Similarly with book-keepers. Technology won't so much directly replace their work but rather never generate the paper invoices, that underpin their work, in the first place.

  4. Say leaving results in economic catastrophe in the UK and it's all presented as a terrible mistake. The EU magnaminously offers us the olive branch of rejoining on the condition we go all in taking the Euro as well.

    Also in the aftermath of the EU referendum there's a referendum and Scotland leave. Ireland has a referendum and goes for reunification.

    In the above scenario you've got Britain in the Euro and Great Britain broken into administrative provinces of the EU superstate. If you're a scheming globalist suddenly the idea of having a referendum on the EU, in Britain, you lose looks like a great idea.

  5. Also if they have multiple shops, and drop the rent on one, they have to account for lower rents = values on the whole estate. Keeping one at a historical high rent and letting the rest to charity shops allows them to pretend the empty/charity ones are worth the higher rent...

    Prior to 2008 they were very concerned about the effect any new leases granted would have, in terms of evidence at review, for other nearby properties. There is a general acceptance that the days of seeing significant, or any, uplift at five yearly review are long gone.

    If the landlord's finances can withstand it they will grant new long leases at lower rents to quality tenants with good covenant strength if they've had a few flakier tenants come and go.

    Most of these retailers disappearing is less about rudderless mismanagement, although it may have been rife, and more like the removal of BT phones boxes. Yes, you could maybe have done something better or more interesting with them but in many cases they are simply obsolete.

  6. I would think the number of times HMRC goes back to doublecheck with the company that issued an invoice, unless some sort of big time carousel type fraud, is vanishingly small.

    The current mad hybrid of a paper and electronic accouting world is massively open to abuse. Most invoices are on plain white copier paper in B&W, rather than coloured logo headed paper produced by a printing company. HMRC have virtually no way of telling if the document is original or printed, in an edited version, the day before. In fact, I bet in the majority of cases they investigate they just say email a PDF across.

    They urgently need some central website where all B2B or allowable expense invoices are processed through so if you are paying for something you want to claim you have to provide a VAT or UTR number and the vendor's invoice goes on your central account.

    I suspect the main thing holding this back is a lack of imagination of what new non-jobs to create for the legions or redundant accountancy workers and assorted spreadsheet botherers the current system keeps occupied.

    Another reason, I believe, is the state likes little form-filing tests that demand civil obedience and the fear of tax investigations.

  7. My theory?

    The soft drinks industry was / is struggling badly,

    sales are down,

    people all over the world have been ditching it,

    there has been campaigns in Mexico where consumption was the worlds highest.

    As people have started to take more interest in weight loss / lifestyle fitness etc and the info on the internet sales were probably forcast to drop off badly over the next 3-5yrs.

    This is all a smoke n mirrors pump for the soft drinks industry why else did he give them 2 years to "change their recipies" ?

    Why didn't he nail them there & then tax effective from midnight? (like tobbacco)

    No he made a great play of trotting out how they / we were going to "work with the drinks industry" to lower sugar content.

    It will be trumpeted to great fanfare everytime a producer manages to lower sugar content in a popular drink.

    Think about it they couldn't give this stuff away in the last year or so, i remember seeing BOGOF's everwhere even 2ltrs for as little as £1

    My anecdotal observation has been the fizzy pop aisle of the supermarkets doesn't seem to see nearly as much activity as, say, ten years ago.

  8. I do know someone in shoe retail. The theory goes people (presumably mainly of the feminine persuasion) stockpiled so many shoes, bought on credit and store cards, during the boom years that they've been working through them in leaner times.

    I can say I have just bought a load of stock from a largish northern based chain that needed cash so things aren't pretty.

    I've also got another good tale about the distressed nature of government finances that I also can't share, time will tell but, this could be the big one this time I'm starting to suspect.

  9. Whinge time.

    I was in Lidl, (I have no loyality, Lidl Tesco, Asda, Sainsburys, which ever is close at the time) bloody ex-Big four shopper in there. I suspect ex-Tesco, I just know these things, no science or empiricle evidence, just gut. Had a trolley full of stuff which I guess would be £150 in Tesco, but it came to £70. Her debit card wouldn't work at the check out. Took ages, then saw her again loading the shopping into a BMW 4x4 in a Mother and Child bay - WITH NO CHILD in any of the seats. ARGHHH!

    I use those spaces when I take my mum to the supermarket.

  10. I saw that too.

    Some scruffy, recent immigrant from Afghanistan, market trader, living with a wife and 9 children, in the worst bit of Birmingham coming into Barclays Bank every day with exacly £25k in notes doesn't arouse suspicion. Didn't they put several million through that bank, and about £100m through the dodgy international clearing house and were only caught due to finding bank slips in that toilet.

    But if I want to transfer £10,001 between accounts I can't due to money laundering regulations.

    You're kind of answering your own question. If he was a market trader he will probably have had a business account and businesses that deal entirely in cash, can deposit a lot of cash. .Large busy pub could easily deposit that from a good weekend so not necessarily the case it would raise eyebrows at the bank.

  11. They're always banging on about 'getting credit into the economy'. The main way it does this is via secured lending. Trouble is, if you let it be paid off every month, it becomes an uphill struggle trying to increase the amount of credit in the economy, as you first have to cover what you've lost thru repayment mortgages. One way around this for a while is to make all housing BTL and all mortgages IO. ;)

    This is broadly my take.

    I also think a lot of traditional avenues of business lending have dried up. The new wave of businesses like online sellers, app developers or even YouTube sensations just don't need to borrow money to either get going or to particularly take it to the next level.

  12. People lost faith in the banks when the realisation dawned they were saddled with more debt than they could be repaid. The state then stepped in and 'rescued' them and everything is quickly forgotten.

    I think it will take the same scenario again. When the banks were starting to wobble it started to manifest itself with BACS payments taking longer than usual and online banking mysteriously out of action. I think it will be something similar with the state, signs of fraying round the edges, then suddenly everyone loses confidence and a crisis ensues.

    In the Russian currency crisis, during the nineties, I think it was state pensions suddenly not being paid on time that tipped things into a full blown panic.

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