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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. Good result and shows that there is no harm in being polite. I think you also have a kind landlady and I'd rather rent from someone like her than one of those so called 'professional' landlords. Best regards
  2. According to the famous and proven Big Mac Index, the Pound is undervalued against the US$ by 11%. On the other hand, the Euro is overvalued by 36%. See link below: The Economist PPP (Big Mac) Index Assuming that policy responses to current economic problems will be similar in all three currency areas (there will be timing differences), in the short-medium term we can expect GBP appreciate against the US$ to circa 1.50 - 1.60. My advice to the OP would be to keep the sterling if there is no short term requirement to convert it. Otherwise, it is worth considering switching into US$ on the basis that it is the reserve currency of choice around the world and there is going to be political stability in the USA following the inauguration of president Obama.
  3. The BBC commentator was going on about that the oath had to be taken before 12 noon but it didn't happen either. Everything was running late. I wish the new president and America well.
  4. I agree. Personally I would contact the local trading standards office to make a complaint.
  5. I watched the entire press conference yesterday and the feeling I got was that the Govt is trying to save the banking system in this country rather than the house prices. Unfortunately, the banks' balance sheets are deteriorating fast as a result of sub prime loans and other foolish investments. To compound the problems, the wholesale money market has become less liquid or refusing to lend to banks. Therefore the Govt has no option but to: 1. Provide an alternative source to the wholesale money market 2. Stop the deterioration in value of assets (i-e mortgages) held by the banks Since the Govt has not got any reserves to speak of, the only thing possible is to print loads of money - the so called quantitative easing. If they print a lot more than the system can cope, it will result in inflation. The result could be higher house prices but it requires willing buyers. I don't think we will have enough willing buyers in 2009.
  6. I agree with the sentiment expressed here. I'm sure that computers have a place in the modern society but wholesale reliance on the power of computers is insane. Even intelligent people sometimes forget that computer programmes are written by other human beings. As the saying goes "To err is human but to really screw up you need a computer". As for LTCM, it is hard to say what would have happened if it was allowed to fail. However but my instincts are that any mess created then would have been less than what we are seeing today. It is total madness what we are witnessing now.
  7. I don't know why people bother with what these rating agencies say. After all, these agencies are the ones told investors until recently that sub prime mortgages are AAA rated investments. I am begining to think that we are going to have a catastrophic systemic failure globally. I hope I am wrong though.
  8. Agree. The currency started lose its value only around the back end of the summer and by then most overseas orders (usually priced in US$) would have been placed. Usually importers order goods for the anticipated Christmas period demand between May - August and goods get delivered around Oct - Nov. The economic conditions dictate that we will definitely import less this year but it is hard to predict the UK exports as it depends on the ability of the purchasers overseas despite the falling value of £.
  9. The stock market didn't like the announcement and the shares were marked down. A short time ago, they were trading at 21.5 pence. However, it was trading at 4.4 pence at the end of November. Any brave soul bought the shares would be looking at a nice profit . See chart below: http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/...three_month.stm
  10. Yesterday's £ 3month LIBOR was 2.3275%. I use the site below, which is linked to the FT. http://www.swap-rates.com/Libor.html Hope it helps.
  11. +1 I don't know whether the figures include VAT or not but assuming it does, the VAT reduction of 2.5% which came into effect on 1st December should explain some of the YoY reduction. Surely if a business cannot cope with 3.3% reduction in sales then there is something seriously wrong with it. I can understand this as an indicator for worse things to come in 2009 though.
  12. They sure do! They used to have higher interest rates than UK when they had their own currency but by joining the Euro at an inappropriate rate and gaining cheaper interest rates, they had artificial inflation in asset prices much higher than in UK. They also used the EU handouts to lure IT companies from UK and abroad by giving lots of incentives such as no corporation tax. The UK suffered a great deal as a result and some of my Irish friends used to brag about their new found, albeit imaginary now, wealth. Now it is the other way around, they are crying foul. I like the Irish people in general and have some good friends but I guess it is their politicians to blame. I guess the politicians are more or less the same everywhere.
  13. Yes, without a doubt there will be more like this soon. We in the west are no angels, but corruption and bribery is a way of life in India and several other countries in Asia, Middle East and Africa. It is utter stupidity of senior management in large companies in the west to outsource entire back office operations to such companies. Satyam claims that 150 of Fortune 500 companies, such as JP Morgan are its clients. I hope these companies have credible disaster recovery programmes that they could activiate soon.
  14. According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, 40% of all outstanding mortgages (11.7 million) are on tracker or discounted variable rates and 8% of all outstanding mortgages are on SVRs. I think major lenders such as Halifax and Lloyds TSB have passed on the recent bank rate reductions to their SVR customers as well. All in all, I think around 5 million mortgage borrowers would be benefitting from the recent interest rate reduction. Also the monthly mortgage amount payable would have been reduced significantly to people on interest only mortgages (most probably all BTL mortgages) than people on repayment mortgages as they have to pay the capital element every month. As usual, the Government policies favour the reckless than the prudent who have chosen to repay some of the capital every month. Below are some key statistics on the mortgage market which may be useful. Key statistics for outstanding UK mortgages: • Number of UK households with a mortgage: 11.7 million • Average outstanding mortgage: £104,687 Profile of existing mortgage holders: approximately 51% on fixed rates, 40% on tracker or discounted variable rates (not all linked to Bank rate changes), and less than 8% on standard variable rates. Key statistics for new UK mortgage lending: • Average first-time buyer mortgage (Oct 2008): £103,500 • Average home-mover mortgage (Oct 2008): £122,053 • Average new mortgage for house purchase (Oct 2008): £112,756 • Average gross income for first-time buyer (Oct 2008): £33,926 • Average gross income for home mover (Oct 2008): £47,000 • Average proportion of income first-time buyers spend on mortgage interest payments (Oct 2008): 19.3% • Average proportion of income home movers spend on mortgage interest payments (Oct 2008): 16.1% • Proportion of all borrowers taking out a fixed-rate mortgage (Oct 2008): 55% • Proportion of borrowers taking out a tracker mortgage (Oct 2008): 35%" source: www.cml.org.uk
  15. robo1968, First you said "Can you name an English product that we can say, yes it's made in UK by a UK 'owned' company and it's great". For which I replied with RR Trent 1000. Now you have changed the question and want me name something your wife buys. Well, it is difficult for me to answer that question without knowing a bit more about your wife's shopping habits . Anyway as a general example think of Cadbury's chocholates, Jonnie Walker, Chivas Regal etc.
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