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Erewhon

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Everything posted by Erewhon

  1. Over seven years after someone recorded gold price predictions, I wonder if any "analyst" was actually close to being accurate. Analyst predictions for price of gold collated in October 2011
  2. https://youtu.be/2DpfsqjQbP0?t=1953 Note the comment on Italy making prostitution and cocaine sales part of GDP.
  3. Thanks for pointer. Also of interest is the article on gold and blockchain where the author states:
  4. I would recommend follow-up reading of https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Willful-Ignorance/dp/0735211655 which became available about a week ago. Essentially a former Fed insider reveals incompetence and rails against academics with Ph.Ds whose models drive Fed policy with little connection to the wider reality.
  5. Some charts for you on negative yielding debt in this Grant Williams "Crazy" video
  6. A significant day for Australian long term holders.
  7. Which is also the target in your sig. But, would that be the time to start buying or wait for a bottom becoming clear?
  8. Mind you, if you are a Venezuelan investor the perspective would alter somewhat
  9. Yes, ready and waiting but with "Gold will go to $1000", is that the buying point?
  10. http://www.gata.org/files/MylchreestReport-05-2016.pdf "Death of the Gold Market" This report brings together many strands of thought from both mainstream and "fringe" sources. Worth analysis and perhaps DiggerUK can find specific points to refute given where it is hosted.
  11. A "neutral" piece from the FThttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e2d5b638-0610-11e6-9b51-0fb5e65703ce.html#axzz46HRJLoJN
  12. The first 50 pages are a very readable narrative of history and process. The remaining pages are graphs. Note the reliance on the analysis of the same experts whose expertise was queried by the defence.
  13. Different jurisdiction and action but possibly indicative... Page 45 of https://kmlaw.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Gold_SOC1_15jan16.pdf indicates why the amounts are so small.
  14. Lots of digging on this story (and more than I will read) at http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7566/re-london-silver-fixing-ltd-antitrust-litigation I assume having put that much effort into it he will update it for the GOLD aspects.
  15. It seems the cabals might be outing themselves but the conspirators have not yet handed over the promised electronic communications to enable further e-discovery
  16. http://www.fullertreacymoney.com/system/data/files/PDFs/2016/April/12th/April16QuarterlyNote-TheImplicationsofNegativeInterestRates.pdf Interesting to compare with their analysis in April 2015 http://nebula.wsimg.com/1bd9ef9c5e22b80992b22d1027e06a5e?AccessKeyId=05C6F6D0608F5DCB79C7&disposition=0&alloworigin=1 So that's the current view of "a boutique independent wealth management and investment management firm with extensive experience working with domestic and international ultra high net worth and high net worth clients" Can't be normal goldbugs since they use ETFs.
  17. David Stockman thinks they fail in handling this shift. http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-world-economy-wreckers-of-beijing/ Excoriation provided in the usual Stockman rhetorical style.
  18. Mr Bernanke has quite a lot to say on the Chinese "trilemma" in these areas http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-bernanke/posts/2016/03/09-china-trilemma#.VuAtF862IyU.twitter
  19. With adjustment from the RPI history (0.9%, 2.4%, 4.8%, 3.1%, 2.7%, 1.6%, 1.2%, ), applied to purchases at the average price, the gain over 8 years comes out around 9%
  20. Taking the RPI history at http://swanlowpark.co.uk/rpiannual.jsp and applying that to the 8 purchases gives for the initial worst case a loss of just over 9% after 8 years.
  21. That entire thread is well worth reading to see the kinds of arguments people used to justify their positions. The happy ones expecting to go from $36 per oz in mid 2011 to triple digits in short order must be feeling somewhat deflated today.
  22. Using the historical data on goldprice.org: Following the events of 2008 the goldbug decides to buy one ounce of gold on the last day of some month in each year going forward to the present. Against the odds, they manage to choose the worst month of each year for the purchase. In 2008 they buy on the last day of DEC at the worst price of the year of 605 pounds In 2009 they buy on the last day of NOV at the worst price of the year of 716 In 2010 they buy on the last day of DEC at the worst price of the year of 898 In 2011 they buy on the last day of AUG at the worst price of the year of 1114 In 2012 they buy on the last day of FEB at the worst price of the year of 1108 In 2013 they buy on the last day of MAR at the worst price of the year of 1053 In 2014 they buy on the last day of FEB at the worst price of the year of 792 In 2015 they buy on the last day of JAN at the worst price of the year of 839 They now have eight ounces at a total cost of 7124 pounds. Price per ounce on 6 March 2016 is 882 so their loss after 8 years is just under 1% For comparison, had they bought at the average price in 2008 through to 2015 they would have paid 6343 pounds so their gain after 8 years is 11% Another value from the spreadsheet shows that optimal luck in getting the best price subject to the initial constraint would have given a gain after 8 years of 24% The spreadsheet giving these numbers automatically updates the gold price so this can be checked from time to time if anyone is interested.
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