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Everything posted by pdg

  1. btl to go tits up in the summer. Ir's to be 4.0% end of year Indices to turn negative in Sept Unemployment/redundancies to be a staple in the news. Debt programmes on news and TV programmes. and Spurs to finish 4th and in the CL (Scaramanga you lot on Glory-Glory.net need to be more positive - in the mighty Jol we trust ) I'm the Shelfside Tottenham
  2. Was in Kingston upon thames today doing some Christmas shopping - mid-afternoon, queued for 5 mins for M&S multi storey (at this time of year that is fabulous!) and the shops were not that busy. Could even amble about without the fear of getting knocked over. Queues in shops were 2 or 3 deep if at all which is good at this time of year really.
  3. Yet........(although I agree its not a trigger in itself ) However I do not like static or regressive phraseology. An economy is by nature dynamic, things change, sometimes quickly when problems (national and international) compound at speed. When you realise whats gone suddenly wrong its too late
  4. Forever? Stop thumbing yer nose at us kindergarten economist
  5. Costs cannot be carried forever. There comes a point when the chickens have to come home to roost for the manufacturer and retailer can no longer sustain absorption and pass the costs on. Secondary effects to inflation is a real problem.
  6. Starting to feel the quickening? i.e. the economic storm clouds gathering pace and the slighthly fearful paddling below water surface whilst trying to appear like everything is fine on top. Energy problems are starting to compact - deja vu? Debt, affordability problems - general hubbub remains. Retail on tenterhooks for Xmas. Reports & anecdotes of redundancy coming onto the business agenda. Currency concerns. Intensification of similar problems in Anglo countries around the world. Constant BoE commentary on the hard topics. I am getting the feeling its all starting to quicken in pace..... mixing metaphors I know
  7. This site has been a real education for me. I have learnt an awful lot about how the economy works and how it interlinks with the housing market from people with much more knowledge than I have. For that I will always be grateful.
  8. I always tend to think that others know more than me especially if they have been trained to know more than me but looking back to past precedent and economist predictions for the 1989-95 period and the majority got it completely wrong.
  9. Watch yourself sunshine my wife is a head office HR Manager for a high street retailer! Part lawyer, part economist, part social worker, part diplomat, its a hellish job which is never ending grief. I cant wait till she goes on maternity leave so she can pack it in and never go back.
  10. I always thought 'Personnel' was the American term for HR? With a name like Twopey are you not an HR professional anyway!!! Correct me if I am wrong but was'nt the article talking in relation the redundancies in the general employment sense that the HR people will have to process? I was just reporting a change in sentiment however not making a grand point.
  11. Ephraim, This is what The Motley Fool forum have contributed. Thought you might be interested in what they said... http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9...t=whole#9675488 I hope it helps. PDG
  12. http://www.peoplemanagement.co.uk/pm/artic...es&type=section The trend is turning. Highest reported figure for companies planning on reducing headcount. For those keen on short-sightedness you can still say more companies are planning on taking people on but I repeat the trend is reversing. And this is People Management, the voice of authority in HR trade magazine market.
  13. We are you're children, so dont be too harsh on yourself for doing such a bad job
  14. apologies if posted elsewhere... http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and...19&in_page_id=3 "THE scale of Britain's economic slowdown became clear last night as a report showed UK growth is now being outpaced by almost every other major country. The UK has fallen behind France and Germany and is only barely faster than Italy's struggling economy."
  15. Cheers for that boys. Lets hope all the jonny-cum-latelys have taken that on board. Everyone always works on the basis that everything is fine, then something happens! Best case scenario thinking seems to be the bull refuge at the moment despite plenty of economic indicators with largely showing downside risk. Economic growth does not last forever, so when you start seeing the signs take heed, you never anticipate which plank will start the compound/domino effect. Feel the economic temperature. Its out there in the press hubbub. When there is no hubbub there is no problems, there is a hubbub.
  16. Dangerous game that You need to be very sure you can keep in under control. The margin for error is high if you ask me. Pounds has rallied this last hour so someone is supporting the £ against trend. Interesting times in the currency markets.
  17. http://www.sbe.co.uk/events/meetings/30_No...John_Butler.pdf Might be interesting to re-visit the Society of Business Economists 'Outlook for 2005 & 2006' document. The crib sheet on the last page would be interesting to update if we had new figures?!?! I think there is a tendency to focus too small on HPC when the shor-term news is marginal, good or bad. This is the big picture and this is what will affect our small picture. If anyone can help update some of the figures we can compare and contrast....
  18. trying to track the average national wage from the mid-80's on. Anyone know where I could find the stats or even a nice graph?
  19. Hmmm come to the thread late. How do you extrapolate your Thatcherite 'I am alright Jack' viewpoint to the general FTB market TTRTR? We cannot all live in studio's with Wife and Child despite earning chunk above the average London wage. We cannot all en-masse get better jobs either as who would take our jobs. You live in a small world 'I'm alright Jack' TTRTR immune from the bigger picture it would seem as you have nothing to contribute beyond the small picture.
  20. update 1.72615 I've been reading that this is counter-intuitive considering US deficit. Dont particularly understand what is going on though Probably way behind a previous thread here but I have a tenuous grasp on what happens when the pound goes up and down beyond a few generalisations. If anyone can be arsed a short precis would be appreciated.
  21. I have to say the Moneyweek article suggesting 2008-2010 for meltdown is far to far away for me to contemplate. I'd go spare if I have to wait that long with a wife and baby on the way. Frankly my own personal opinion sees it happening end of 2006 and then through 2007 as I think/hope (who can tell frankly) that the things are converging a little quicker.
  22. Its darkest just before dawn and all that Its going to be increasingly murky with a frenzy of spinning and counter spin until after Christmas and the 1st Qtr if you ask me but this is what I'd expect considering all the increasing downside factors. Bulls will fight until the converging downside factors start to click. What on earth can push the economy and therefore the housing market further on from this point when the downside risks are becoming increasingly apparent? Its a painful game of patience. There is going to be fall dawns and bullish rallying points but debt and lagging inflation will out. New paradigm theory really is like trying to converge all optimistic factors through an eye of a needle. Nothing economic can be controlled to such an extent that this is likely IMHO. Fools paradise.
  23. It is a fact apparently, the housing market crashed and recession followed last time out. Quite a well know fact but I have no links to hand which would help. Kind of makes sense though if you think about it - housing market normally drives consumer sentiment (until they wobbled recently and said the connection had been broken - oh what a mistake to make BoE!). Retail slows down and they say it because housing market in slump hmmmmm.........makes you think its not rocket science this stuff (although the details probably are!). The key similarities to last time are initially quite stark. Although we all know there are always different routes each time. 70's crashes were about vertical oil prices I believe.
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