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House Price Crash Forum

Mr_Nice

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Posts posted by Mr_Nice

  1. How detailed of a choice can you make? Is your pension fund telling you that their bonds or property section contains

    MBSs, CDOs and other 'toxic waste'? The descriptions I get from mine are so general, that I have no clue what they

    are actually invested in.

    I have choice of practically all funds much in the same way as SIPP. you can then check out sites like iii or trustnet to review what they hold

  2. I think oil will run out at some point but no for another 50 years possible, what we are now seeing in the oil markets is pure and simple greed, investors salivating at the mouth with every pi$$y little kidnap story in Nigeria or farty storm off the gulf of Mexico, its all bo**ocks, if this sh** continues then it wouldn't surprise me if the money men don't talk it up to $300 barrel, the green lobby are so powerful now, on one wants to talk it down as they will only be happy when we all return to wigwags with bicycles made of wicker.

    Yeah the declines in the north sea and mexico coupled with the huge growth in drill rigs just to maintain production at gulwar are just noise.

    Production is circa 85 million bpd and demand is basically 85 million bpd. Just because USA uses about 20x the amount of oil as china per person does'nt suggest that demand will increase. China isn't likely to use any more cars or flights or plastics or feterlizers. Loads of slack ;), no problem, nothing to see here..... there's some sand i'll go stick my head in it and everything will be fine.

  3. I wasn't referring to the article ***k nut, but rather responding to the previous post and stating the fact that there are roughly 11 million outstanding mortgages in the UK and there are roughly 25 million homes so therefore give or take a few who have multiple homes on one mortgages it can be assumed that 14 million folks own their homes outright be it rented out to tenents or lived in by themselves. As for your maths rant, I've got a degree in maths from one of the red brick Uni's back in the day when it meant something and not the ones nowadays that might aswell be written on sh** paper, so crawl back into you shell ***hole.

    Right on jimmy :)

  4. The question is why are we not using the alternatives e.g. LPG, Bio Diesel etc

    LPG is include by the majors in reserve calc. This is know as BOE (barrel oil equivalent) which is calculated on joules not cost.

    Bio Diesel. Love it. Nice and inflationary and destabalising. Look at tortilla inflation in mexico (no thats not a joke) and pasta prices in italy about to go up 40% as the idiots use corn to make fuel.

  5. Contrary to popular belief the vast bulk of global oil reserves are in the hands of the NOC's (state oil companies). 'Big Oil' was estimated to own only around 12% of reserves from one estimate I saw recently. Several of the oil majors have recently reported that they were unable to replace their reserves last year i.e. they produced more than they discovered or could include by reserve additions. ExxonMobil did manage full reserve replacement...but only by acquisition, not with the drill bit.

    BP got 100 % too. And before any one accusses me of ramping, you cannot ramp a £100Bn company.

  6. I don't understand why oil shares are not rocketing on these news stories. The PE ratio of the majors is about 10-12, it should be way higher as they're sitting on an asset that is going to greatly increase in value. What are people doing with the proceeds of their sales of Barrats shares?

    Oil Cos are huge so share prices don't rocket upwards. Don't wait until they are higher to confirm that they should be.

    Buy them and then benefit from profits whilst watching inflation go up. Luvvly jubbly.

  7. hi guys just found this forum and wondering if i could have your opinion, been offered 50 gold sovereigns(full) at £70 a coin .Is this good value as they are various dates and of good quality(the odd scratch).Also how can i tell if they are real, do i go to a jeweller or is it possible to get a scales or something like that.Sorry if this has come up already as i am lazy and havent read all the posts.

    Thanks

    i take this is on ebay? buy them. can't see any problems :)

  8. The eastern consumer are important, but so are we, no way east have enough steam to keep the prices on raw materials high, if the western consumer falls out of the picture. Because if we stop lending, they stop getting the cash to buy those cars.

    Have you been to Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Maylasia? I have many times and the scale of growth is phenonemal. THe drive of these people is stunning. Do not underestimate them.

  9. Ever wonder if all this global warming Cr*p is just a cover for reducing our dependance on Oil and gas based energy? I do. THere would be global panic if the truth got out!!! :lol:

    Totally agree. I think and have done for a long time that this is exactly why they are trying to promote burning fossil fuels is a cardinal sin.

    I am loaded up with energy shares so drive a gas guzler, leave my monitor on and always take the lift at work and then drive to the gym lol.

    No. I am not very nice. I was taught by the maestro blair that selfishness and greed is good.

  10. I love the bit 'but it's not a peak it's a plateau'

    Duh!!

    Static Production/Rising Consumption= Peak Oil

    If the IEA don't even get this simple concept then we truly are screwed!

    Yes hilarious. They call it a plateau. So if you get to the top of a mountain and its flat then you have'nt reached the peak you've merely reached the plateau. hmmm

  11. Another currency?

    What currency? Is cash by another name trash? How do savings cause inflation?

    They don't. If we're all stuffing our money under the mattress how would that inflate prices?

    IF the pound falls?

    IF my aunty had balls she'd be my uncle.

    There's nowt wrong wi' cash. Nothing wrong at all with savings accruing close to 6% with little risk.

    So, if I buy, buy, buy what's my profit target? When do I get out and with how much profit? Or do I do a 'Motley Imbecile' and stay in forever? (So that I'm in inflation-adjusted profit when I'm 115 years old.)

    What if it goes down? What do I do then? Where's my uncle point?

    This market is an 'other people's money' market. It's easy to get 'right' and if it's wrong then 'everyone' is wrong (so what the hell?).

    Sterling is doing very nicely indeed. Why would it crash? When would it crash? What would make it crash? Will it crash because it's strong? Or would it crash because it's high? Is there a difference?

    You ain't kidding?

    No, you ain't kidding, you is sounding like a guy I once stood behind in a queue to have a bet at the dog track. He believed (by shouting it loudly and with much passion) that the 'two dog' could not 'be beat' [sic]. He was very convincing. I'm sure some people changed their bets thinking he was on to something.

    But when he went up to put his own bet on it was for 10p.

    The 'two dog' lost but had it won I still wouldn't have believed him.

    I don't know whether BP or CYN will go up or not, neither have I clue as to whether the pound will fall.

    But you're even more clueless than me. If your strategy is predicated on false assumptions, you're gambling.

    How about property? I've heard experts say it has a future.

    WOW. There's a lot to digest there. I didn’t say saving caused inflation but it does facilitate lending. Inflation is an insidious tool that governments use to tax money you have already paid tax on. 6% savings rate - tax is not enough to compensate an RPI at 4.5% plus surely you should aim to increase wealth not just maintain parity. And if you stuff money under a mattress that is even worse. Perhaps you should seek professional financial advice?

    But you are correct in saying don't look for it here. This is a forum for voicing opionions not advice.

  12. I don't think the merchant banks have ever had anything other than a bullish outlook on the market and that includes their position at the turn of the millenium.A strong market will,however, certainly not help the housing market as it will divert funds away and should also help bring forward that 6% Base rate to September.

    Agreed. It is worth noting that if you could buy property at 2001 prices you probably would. The ftse is still at 2001 prices.

    The path of course with stocks will not be smooth and another shake out is certainly due I have a couple of short positions on some key indecies just to balance out individual stock/sector picks

  13. http://business.scotsman.com/finance.cfm?id=1063232007

    Property market on shaky footings

    TERESA "OCH-AYE" HUNTER
    SIGNS of a
    significant slowdown in the Scottish property market
    emerged as the Bank of England delivered another payment shock to borrowers by raising interest rates for the fifth time since last summer, pushing up the cost of a £100,000 repayment mortgage by £17 per month.
    According to the latest Halifax quarterly house price survey, published as members of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee sat down for their meeting, house prices in Scotland rose by just 0.6% over the past three months.
    This compares with a more than 8% climb over the first three months of the year, and was the lowest improvement, aside from regions where prices actually fell....

    Talk about a screeching halt. Going from 8% down to 0.6% in a quarter must feel like a McClaren-Benz going from 220 MPH to 10 MPH in 5 seconds.

    Which is about twice what you might expect

    http://phors.locost7.info/phors11.htm

  14. in 1967 the world used the bretton woods system where currencies were fixed. today currencies are floating. as a result todays price is the correct price of any currency.

    in truth nobody can predict where a currency will go whether it is up or down because in a free market all the information should already be reflected in todays price.

    if people believed that the £ would sink they would have already started selling a long time ago and it would become a self fulfilling prophecy.

    I dont understand your argument. Yes the price is correct for today (as the price is price) but that does'nt mean traders dont believe it will fall in the future. Its all about timing.

    I am certain house prices will be more than double todays nominal value in 50 years but i wont pay double today.

    timing dear boy timing

  15. You're dead right!

    On the face of it it looks as if this couple would be able to go bankrupt, wipe out the credit card debts and other unsecured loans, and keep their house. So long as they keep up the repayments on their mortgage and secured loan. The insurance policy should be ditched forthwith.

    The fact that they would not be able to get further credit for a few years is undoubtedly a bonus! They could learn to live within their means and have a nice life!

    errr. If they went bankrupt they would only be able to keep the house if they had no equity in it. So its a bit of an oxymoron as if they have no equity its not their house. So, no you can go bankrupt and keep 'your' house.

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