2020 Vision

Thanks guys. Some really useful comments. Anybody got experience of renting in Germany, Sweden or Holland? I hear they have much more tenant-friendly regimes. Also be keen to understand some of our more distant neighbours.. how do these things work in Japan?

I'm curious how posters here think government policies could improve the situation of tenants in this country. Any ideas? Anybody with any experience of how the "tenancy market" operates better in foreign lands? For what it's worth I have a couple of ideas... Scrap the AST - Make contracts perpetual with tenants retaining the right to leave on three months notice. Landlords could only evict tenants for failing to pay the rent, or if they are converting the property to non-BTL, or they pay the tenant off. Reduce DSS payments / housing allowance (or whatever it's called) - All this does is artificially prop up rents. This increases expenses for private tenants and thus results in them having lower disposable incomes. Reduce needless red tape for landlords - None of these safety certificates, multiple occupancy licenses etc have done anything to improve rental properties. Cut the costs and let the market work its magic so savings are passed on in part to tenants. Build more social housing - On the cheap by compulsory purchase of land banks for close to nothing from bankrupt construction firms. Oh, and relax planning laws. Purposefully create ghettos for problem social housing tenants - Immediately improve the quality of life for the 97% of the population that generally live within the laws of the land. Any one want to shoot my ideas down? Anybody with better suggestions?

£600m loss but the shares are up 15% on a sliver of progress paying down debt. I posted on the other investment forum already, but Taylor Wimpey announce their re-fi in early March. Get in now whilst their going cheap.

Prices are still set at the margins. We still have vastly more "forced/keen sellers" than "motivated buyers with means". Forced/keen sellers = 75,000 repo's this year. Add divorces, deaths and struggling BTL. Motivated buyers with means = Nobody? Virtually all FTBs priced out in 2007 are still priced out today. Until this turns around there will be no bounce.

That's right, I'm buying shedloads of TW ahead of their re-fi early next month.

Excellent call. Hope you made a bundle.

Berlin property is an excellent idea if you do your research thoroughly. Email me and I'll send you details of some decent two bedroom apartments for circa EUR50,000 each with 8% yield. james88000 at googlemail dot com

Gone long GBP vs EUR straight after the cut. Very volatile. Post more soon.

What is a positive margin if it's not a profit???

£48k a piece and still the builder makes a profit. Gives some indication of the way things are heading.

BROWN N - Short 5/1/09 My Gagfah long position is nicely in profit. I still think it has legs but don't know if the market-wide bounce can continue so I want to bring my net exposure down. I opened a £15 a point short position in Brown N today at 205, with a 50 point stop. It's a home shopping and finance co with share price that has held up remarkably well to date. However, with rumours of mounting bad debts from customers, and excessive debt on its balance sheet, anything but an outstanding Xmas trading statement should see these tank. My total profit/loss to date (5/1/09) is: PROFIT £3,400 or 3.4% Investment Byker - Thanks for the encouragement. Barry Scott - Be careful with gold and Euros. UBS have published research that suggests gold may fall to $300! Also I expect GBP to fall below parity with the Euro but only briefly. Fair value is probably GBP1.00 = EUR1.15.

For what it's worth (and I'm certainly no expert) I think the medium term fair price for oil is $70-90. I have toyed with the idea of going long but I'm fearful we could see further drops in the short-term. Options are just too rich for me. GAGFAH - Long 22/12/08 I tripled the size of my Gagfah position this morning as momentum is clearly on my side. Anybody know how I edit the opening post?

GAGFAH - Long 18/12/08 I decided to buy Gagfah, a German residential property investment company, today. An odd trade given my bearish views on property and equities perhaps. I won't bore readers with the numbers but the share price has been hammered as you would expect. But a closer look at the company reveals an (admittedly suspect) NAV eight times above the share price! German property should hold up well and Gagfah are having some "luck" increasing rents. Their borrowing is large, but they have limited refinancing needs over the next five years. I'm expecting equities to hold up well through to year end and maybe even experience an "Obama bounce". After that, armageddon, and I may need to close out this trade.

Ladies and gents, I have worked hard to build up a STR Fund (lets assume it's £100,000) and I expect to use it to buy a house during 2010. This thread is a means for me to record how I go about preserving and growing my GBP wealth over the intervening 12-18+ months. I welcome your thoughts on my trading and any suggestions you have for new trades. 1. Long GAGFAH on 18/12/08 using CFD. Opened at 260, £10/point, stop loss at 100 points. OPEN My total profit/loss to date (18/12/08) is: PROFIT £30

BRL for me. Massive foreign currency reserves, low leverage in banking system, abundance of commodities, young population, no property bubble etc etc etc. Now if someone could just tell me how to hold them without getting on a plane to open an account in Brazil???

Thought I would post from the financial coal face... I "work" in hedge funds, although in actual fact my role disappeared long ago. I fully expect to be made redundant after New Year. I have interviewed for half a dozen jobs, actually got offered three roles, only to be told by all three that they were going back on their decision to hire. Of the 200(ish) hedge funds I know well, I would say 50%+ are looking to reduce headcount. Some are closing up shop altogether. I have six close friends that have been made redundant in recent weeks, none have managed to find new work. Countless acquantancies being made redundant. I am resigned to the fact that I will not be returning to the industry.

If you expect deflation followed by inflation then you shouldn't be buying gold at all! Best to look for real assets that have already deflated beyond all reasonable expectations. My money is in German property.

Interesting that it's reported as sold for £70k on their website.... I was at the auction, final bid was £73k, unsold as did not reach reserve price.... seems a bit fishy to me!

See link http://www.auctionhse.co.uk/results_displa...m?auction_id=32

I actually dropped by the auction for the first 25 lots. Quite a contrast to the last auction I was at in 2005. Obviously prices were much lower. But there were also plenty of empty seats. Higher ratio of buy to live versus buy to let. Bids were often in increments of £500 from the get-go. Still there was some competition for new builds though. I have to say the auctioneer was very good. Some of my favourite quotes: as bidding progressed on lot 6 "Look the price is going up, now IS the time to buy!"; and my personal favourite, as bidding slowed for lot 14 "Come on sir, this is pocket money to a gentleman like you".

I can't believe some of you guys are buying back into equities already... are you insane??? It's accepted wisdom that earnings fall 50% in a recession, and this is no ordinary recession. The FTSE trades on a PE of 7 and that takes account of only 10% fall in earnings from the peak. We should see PEs of <5 before we reach the bottom. Assuming earnings only half (and that looks optimistic) the bottom for the FTSE will probably be in the 2,000-2,500 range.

Reaper, no links as such but I think it was Soros that predicted a couple of weeks ago that TWO thirds of hedge funds would close. This is broadly in line with what I'm seeing on the ground. You need to sign up for most hedge fund websites. Albourne.com and FinAlternatives.com are free I think. Uriah, I would agree that the run-of-the-mill hedge fund must disappear. However there are a few examples out there of hedge funds that have a sustainable business model and actually make meaningful contributions to society/markets. Hedge fund fee erosion is happening which I think we would all agree is a good thing.

hf-implode is hopelessly out of touch. Not that many funds have actually closed down yet (maybe 10%). However literally hundreds (or even low thousands) have raised gates and/or suspended redemptions. Of these expect well over 50% to close down next year. On top of that you have a whole herd of funds (circa 1,000) launched in 2006/7 that never reached critical mass. Whole industry is a complete mess. Convertible arb and fixed income arb (some would even include equity hedge) business models no longer viable. Similarly fund of hedge funds only viable in a handful of cases (and there's about 2,000 out there).

Berlin real estate? Can pick up a decent 2 bedroom apartment for under EUR50,000 yielding close to 10%. Rent/wage ratio is the lowest in Europe (rents are actually increasing!), and has the highest proportion of under 35s of any major Western European city. Property out there is (big generalisation here) not financed by debt, main industries are manufacturing, media and bio-tech (not construction and finance). Deflation or inflation? You win either way. Sterling weakness? You have a Euro income.

Echo some of the earlier comments on here. I've had no problem getting mortgages in Germany as a non-resident. I use an agent in Berlin to source mortgage offers for me. Happy to give out his details if anyone wants to PM me.