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House Price Crash Forum

2020 Vision

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About 2020 Vision

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  1. As the meltdown in Europe continues I am keen to hear house price antedocals from those on the ground in the effected countries. We hear in the press every day that the Greeks are spiralling back towards the dark ages (literally with the national power company giving up on collecting payments and needing a bailout itself). But have house prices collapsed by 90% to reflect this? The Greek banks have seen a bank run so presumably mortage availability is zero? In Spain unemployment is 3x that of the UK (not that I believe either countries official figure), are house prices falling three times quicker, or are the banks hoarding every single property knowing they will be bailed out endlessly? I keep hearing Irish house prices have bottomed, no chance I think, but what are people's first hand experiences? And has Hollande's victory led to an explosion in the supply of >€1m homes on the market as the rich scurry for the exit? I'll go first. Just back from a weekend in Marbella, Spain. Probably not representative of the country as a whole as 90% of the population appeared to be British (80% from Essex), with the balance being Spanish, Russian and German. Since my last visit (two years ago) not much seems to have changed, in many cases it's the same apartments up for sale, mostly at the same price (although some had been discounted by 10-20%). Nothing much selling, some of the building work that had stopped seems to have restarted. And that's it, not particularly exciting I know.
  2. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-03/london-landlords-facing-rents-of-zero-turn-offices-into-condos.html
  3. It seems to me many on here are planning to buy a house in the UK when the time is right. Lets ignore for now, that UK property may never reach a fair price if you think the country is in permanent decline. And instead focus the forum's considerable expertise on what kind of property to look for. For what it's worth the only genuinely good "tips" I've been given are: - Buy the worst property on the best street, rather than the best property on the worst street. - At the bottom of the market land will have declined much more in percentage terms than houses. Therefore it might make sense to buy a property with additional land / potential building plot. * The smell of fresh bread, twigs in vases, and manolia paint are "no-brainers" and do not need to be discussed here.
  4. Thought you might find it interesting to know that they're spending £25m to build a new police station in Wood Green, North London. £25m!!! As if that wasn't bad enough Wood Green's existing police station is perfectly usable if a bit shabby. Oh, and every PCSO in Wood Green has been given notice that they might be made redundant. And whatever your view of PCSOs, surely there has never been a better opportunity to promote the good ones and sack the dozens of PCs on permanent light duty because of made up medical conditions.
  5. Banked another £300 from my oil puts. Actually feel a bit cheated as I was up around £700 with 15 minutes to go before the market closed. Still lesson learned about holding to expiry. TRADE #3 - I have gone short the Liffe Sugar no5 contract today. It looks to be forming a double top at 500. Smallest position you can do at IG Index is £15/point so I've set a reasonably narrow stop.
  6. I exited my silver positions at 19.25 and 19.10 giving a profit of just under £400. TRADE #2 - Spot oil is trading at 74.80. I have bought some deep out of the money puts on oil that expire at the end of the day. Total premium paid £200. This is purely a technical trade, the trend is down and oil has weakened significantly after 1pm on most days over the past few weeks.
  7. Hi HPCers. I've posted ocassionally here over the years but mostly just observed from a distance. I wanted to record my efforts to raise enough cash to buy a decent house (and retire) outright somewhere, and this seemed like as good a place as any. My view of house valuations? They are obviously overvalued... maybe by 50%. My view of house prices? I was firmly in the "deflation / massive nominal house price falls" camp until the European bail-out. It seems the powers that be really will stop at nothing to prop up this ponzi scheme. This WILL lead to currency debasement so who knows what will happen to nominal prices now? Anyway, lets say I'm starting with £10k. Over the next several months I will post here what trades I have on. And please guys, do let me have your comments/suggestions/digs. TRADE #1 - I have gone long silver July futures at 18.55, sized at £4/point. Silver breaking out this afternoon. The idea behind the trade is really just that currencies will weaken against real assets, and the gold/silver price ratio suggests that silver has not priced this in to the extent that gold has.
  8. So, when interest rates rise later this year (and they will), I can expect 40% of the homes available for sale in my area/price range to be repossessed? This would be a sea change and would send prices hurtling downwards surely.
  9. I keep an eye on Rightmove for 4/5 bedroom places in south Herts/Middlesex. Prices came off considerably in late 2007 and the first half of 2008, stabilised, and then very recently have started creeping downwards again. Supply has been muted and a significant proportion of the homes remain unsold after over a year. Two years ago almost none of these homes were available for rent. Now I would say 40% can be rented. The gross yield (based on asking prices for sale and for rent) seems to average about 3.5%. It makes no sense to me to buy what look like very overvalued and depreciating assets on a gross yield of 3.5% (net <2%?). So my question is this.... Can anybody explain why the very significant change in the number of these "executive" homes available for rent? Surely the owners would be better off selling at a lower price?
  10. Halifax house price index for October was announced on 3 November. The index was up 1.2% on the month to £165,528. November's figure must be due later this week. Based purely on Nationwide number my guess is we're looking at a small positive. The IG Index house price future based off Halifax's end of March 2010 figure trades at 168.2k to 170.7k. So circa 2% of increases are priced in and if anything this will probably increase slightly after this weeks positive number. When prices were falling last year these contracts priced in 15% falls and made no sense whatsoever. We all know about Dr Bubb's theory that falling housebuilder shares provide a leading indicator to falling house prices. And it's pretty clear to me that mortgage lending is not getting any cheaper. So my question is..... What do people think to having a very large punt later this week on falling house prices via IG?
  11. Volatility at abnormally low levels so you can pick up options cheap. US is effectively closed for the rest of the week after today. Surely there's a decent chance of something kicking off in Europe or Asia over the coming days? My bias is for it being negative, maybe something to do with UK, German bank handouts and UAE/Greece debt issues. I have just bought a load of deep out the money S&P put options, and a few deep out the money S&P call options. I think they will be substantially higher come Monday. The plan is to hold from that point until time decay dictates that I'm back at breakeven, or probably until maturity if either side get in the money. What do others think?
  12. Put options on the S&P looking very, very cheap. I've taken a small punt.
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