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Tractor boy

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About Tractor boy

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    HPC Poster
  1. I've recommended this site before, but the video interview with Roger Bootle about the UK economic outlook (and his thoughts about the housing market) are interesting to hear. Normally it's a sound bite in media, but here it's several minutes of discussion. http://w3.cantos.com/cantos/dyn/org.php?o=...1dfd0ad560d57_C It's free, but you have to register.
  2. ZZG, you're right: I don't think it works, but as a intermediate step in teh cycle it could give a 'false' reading - indeed thats what I think is happening now - not much change in asking prices we all see, but the evidence is there that completions are dropping right off. Vendors who try this are unlikely to sell, and even less unlikely to sell the longer the property is on the market because, as teh thread continues above, lower comparison prices start to come onto the market. I was just trying to illustrate the 'fog of war' as the cycle changes
  3. Yes I might Volvos, if I'd lived there for 40 years and the price had risen but 000's of % points. Remember, typically only 8%ish of the housing stock changes hands every year: lots of people on this forum assume that sellers bought only a couple of years ago, but statistically there are many more people out there who bought tehir house in 10 or more years ago for a few thousand, now want to release cash/downsize, and they will be far less price sensitive than the FTB of 2 years ago who wants to squeeze every last thou out. Both my parents and parents in law are like this - yes they want to
  4. Here's a thought: because buyers are now driving harder bargains than 6 months ago, the vendor ups the asking price, knowing he will be negotiated down 10% or whatever, and thus ending up with - to him- an acceptable settle price. I think we may see quite a lot of this "moving around" of asking prices
  5. Battersea is similar. We sold August 02 and could buy the house back for exactly the same nominal price. However, there are some areas of simialr sized properties (like the Shaftesbury estate) that seem to have gone up in the interim. The old saw that a street has a top limit that you can't get above is true, IMO
  6. I read somewhere that between 8 and 9% of housing stock churns in a typical year, so given an eight week sale process 1.8% indicates there's about 10% for sale at the moment (on a yearly basis), above average. Makes sense
  7. I'd agree with ZZG - three year old cars are pretty inexpensive, because there are so many around as everybody buys new to show off their wealth. www.autotrader.co.uk is a good browsing tool to see what you can get for your money
  8. Am I alone in thinking that that at least they're honest about teh direction of the market. I don't deny them the right to try and keep the market liquid, which as they say, benefits everyone? Haart, IMO, have been more realistic about the market than many.
  9. I agree that prices go up in a boom. e.g. timber ahs bone up by around 50% in the last 3 years because of the increased demand, but also all timber now comes from sustainable sources (more expensive). A friend of mine who built his own house was told by the building firm that the total cost (labour and materials) would be 50% higher (5years later). I also agree that land prices are higher now as demand is greater
  10. guys, don't be so defensive! 12.6% yield on an asset that was bought BMV is a great result for any asset class and I take my hat off to you. I think the fact is that few have your skills at spotting undervalued assets, and you probably have to accept that their miscalculations will bring the market down: how far and how fast gets us on to the c word...
  11. why don't you face them with this, in the open. I'd love to hear their reaction
  12. I've got twins - they're a lot more fun than bingo and you get to shout more - congratulations
  13. Sounds like a sensible strategy. Maybe this is the start of a new phenomenon of overt twin pricing: Price A for 'chain dependent' buyer. Price A-10% for chain free buyer.
  14. I don't know, but bright EA's will be realising that 1.75% of July price -15% is better that 1.75% of naff all, so will be persuading clients to reduce and keep momentum in the market. Read Andrew Farlow's excellent description of a bubble in teh link to his second paper on the home page - this teetering is true to form IMO
  15. Speaking today to a chum who lives in Somerset: him: so what's your situation on houses: are you looking for somewhere [to buy] or staying where you are [renting in Suiffolk] me: staying. Nothing would induce me to buy a house now. Already seeing some reductions, but volume has thinned in the last week. We're sitting on the cash which I think puts us in strong position. him: oh. Estate agents round here are saying there is some panic selling of people needing to sell to get their next house, and there are some bargains to be had. They reckon seller confidence might return if there are
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