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camem'

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Everything posted by camem'

  1. Relative to financial suicide, long term financial disability looks appealing I suppose. Sorry for the selective quote, but really, listen to what you've just said and think how long it takes you to save 1000 pounds
  2. Fair one. The average house price (DCLG) is 4.2 x two average salaries (ASHE). I guess that either means you can never have kids, or, alternatively you're going to need a few to help you pay the mortgage off...
  3. Even at 7x the average salary (ASHE 2006, 23.6k) the average house price would be 165k, not 201k (DCLG Dec 2006) assuming the average person (*not* average first time buyer) should be able to buy the average house...
  4. has anyone heard an estate agent express a more lucid opinion on the spring bounce ?
  5. The thread, that is. And Spring, according to the Met Office (1st March) There's only one thing missing...
  6. surely not before Cherie Blair makes an indiscreet comment about paedophiles not paying the congestion charge because of climate change, leading to EU subsidies on CCTV systems causing a French unions strike with hospital nurses striking in sympathy leading to H5N1 beating MRSA in a pandemic showdown causing everyone to perish except those in Guantanamo bay and Iran's nuclear facilities. Which would, as it happens, mean house prices rising about 4% in 2007 according to experts.
  7. It's like house price inflation itself ! It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever... In another irony, it turns out it, like the terminator, is a rubbish indicator of the future as well...
  8. and anyway, there's plenty worse than that - notanew can you justify this 2 bed terraced for 365k ? http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-134...=1&tr_t=buy
  9. I wonder if the rubble comes for free http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-636...=1&tr_t=buy
  10. that's ok - I actually started reading in July 04 (true) but it took me a year to come up with the name
  11. A little birdy told me May also. Then Gordon has 100 days to come up with as many policies as possible before he calls a general election. Allegedly.
  12. here's some that are going the bears' way cambridge 2 beds + 3 miles from rightmove 12th Jan 300-400k 57 250-300k 46 100-250k 65 16th Jan 300-400k 57 250-300k 59 100-250k 77 That's a rise in supply of 0%, 28% and 18% respectively. In four days.
  13. I placed mine with IGIndex yesterday. Theirs is simple - they reckon HBOS prices in June will be 189 (they were 186 in December). There's a spread of 5k, so if it drops below 184 on or before June (only a drop of 1.1% since December), you're quids in. Depending on your stop limit (mine 190.5, which is cutting it very fine!) if it hits the limit, you're quids out. Fixed liability for new investors, but bet responsibly ! takes a few days for them to set up the account, you can do most of it online
  14. darn that high employment. Tell him not to worry, they won't be around for long
  15. with the spread of 5 it's 184-194. Current position 189
  16. ok, so despite my meagre bet causing them to shift the whole future down by 1000 GBP (no change since 9am, then 20 seconds after my bet they change their levels!), I still reckon it's a good deal IGIndex reckon June HBOS house price will be 189 December HBOS house price was 186 Of course, they've got a nice big spread of 5 points, so the future has to go below 184 (a drop of 1.1% on December overall) for you to make bucks. bet responsibly ;-)
  17. oops - just alerted IGIndex to the possibility of house prices falling ! no change since 9am, then within 20 seconds of my bet, they've dropped the March future by 1000 GBP !
  18. I hesitated for ages on whether to take up betfair on this at 8 to 1 as well (unfortunately didn't!)
  19. OK - let's put it this way for the investors. You have 200k and you are prepared to lock it up for 23 years. You can buy a buy to let house outright for 3% capital growth per annum (assuming you sell it outright after 23 years and don't get hit by capital gains) and a bonus of a 5% yield in rent, or you can invest it in any other commodity / stock / share / ISA, or you can invest it in a 4.25% index linked BoE treasury stock gilt maturing after 23 years. Interest rates are uncertain. What do you do ? My point is I thought it was generally accepted that over periods of 25 years property was a great investment (even by some of the bears). If this article is right (and as pointed out earlier it appears to be tripe) then that suggests it doesn't stack up that well even 'over the long term'. Now actually of course, people might just want to buy a home to live in, but that seems unlikely with attitudes like this
  20. Blimey. With compound interest that's only an average of 3.06% per year for the next 23 years - quite possibly less of a return than sticking cash in the bank ! Is this the first article ever to be more bearish than HPC itself ?
  21. 18% - covers my rent increase of 0%. I seriously implied I would leave for the first time in a few years. But then I was seriously going to. From what I've heard this wouldn't work in the public sector... No, I still can't afford a house.
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