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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by camem'

  1. How you get your deposit is up to you I guess
  2. not strictly related to this site but... http://www.google.com/trends?q=house+price+crash
  3. Doesn't this leave a shortfall somewhere in the system ? Kids today, I don't know, if only they didn't buy an ipod I'm sure they could afford to pay it all off.
  4. I expect stocks up over the day, and volatility settling in general with few headlines to talk about. However this is based on a single source which is the 'HPC' contra-indicator, which says the more posts about financial armageddon on day X there are here on HPC, the more likely the markets settle/rise on day X
  5. "The European Central Bank (ECB) injected 61.05 billion euros (around 83 billion US dollars) into the money market on Friday" "Japan's central bank had earlier injected one trillion yen (£4.2bn) into the Tokyo market." "the Federal Reserve in Washington ploughed another $16bn into the US financial system, hard on the heels of a $19bn injection early this morning. The Fed had injected $24bn into the markets the day before in the same way. " "The world's central banks have now injected $323bn (£160bn) into the money markets over the past 48 hours, equivalent to a quarter of Britain's entire annual economic output." These types of action, which I never realised could be so casual, presumably have a massive long term financial impact. Can someone more versed in economics tell me what this impact is ? Is this just a state sponsored extension of easy credit in order to save jobs ? With no corresponding increase in productivity does this just turn directly into inflation later ? Is there ever an equivalent reduction in money supply ('we'll have that 160bn back now') ?
  6. surely you should just go and read the local paper to find out more. You can get it round Tim's way.
  7. are my returns great ? Can anyone retired tell me what's reasonable to live on compared to what you had before (serious question behind this, wondering whether to jack the job in and contract / start a company, but then I'd have to provide my own pension)
  8. only joking, of course they're going to crash
  9. Here's one I'm not sure we've done. What type of pension do you have, roughly what age are you and what % of your (for want of a better measure) *current* salary do you think it will pay out per year if you're not bothering (or of course, your BTL home is your pension ) feel free to contribute too I am in a contribution scheme, company pays 13% of my salary per year (think that's good), am late twenties, and the projection says if I work till 65 I will get an annuity worth (in today's money) 45% of my (CURRENT) salary.
  10. I always wonder the same thing - today's FTB's must have enormous deposits / family money. It would be 60-70% of (above average) take home pay (1 salary) or 40-50% (2 salaries) to buy with repayment anywhere round here.
  11. With a Dec 06 value of 173746 and June 07 value of 184070 they are predicting anywhere between a drop of 1.6k and a gain of 3.5k on the average house between now (June 07) and year end 07.
  12. it looks like my wager will be a successful one (but then I did ask housepricecrash.co.uk, maybe I should try singingpig.co.uk for balance) own up, who voted no ?
  13. So my friend was telling me how he had secured a great deal (buy to let) on a Manchester 2 bed new build apartment for 140,000, when the 'market price' was 165,000. I tried to explain that he had paid 140,000 so the market price, by definition, was exactly that, but he wouldn't let go of his BMV spiel and said I should go to the property development seminars to see for myself. Another friend chipped in and said wasn't it unbelievable that he'd made instant profit on his offer too (I could only agree...) Anyways, I declined the offer for the seminar and, at the risk of adding salt to the wound, instead bet him a nice bottle of whisky that in 2 years time (June 2009) if he values his 2 bed Manchester new build apartment, it will be less than 140,000 (nominal!). Cue much hilarity from our mates who all think property only goes up (except, interestingly, for the bloke who bought in London and is currently trying to work out whether to go interest only or put more debt on his credit card) I don't know much about the Manchester market except the odd bit I've read here - what does the collective board think ?
  14. Does anyone else wonder where these numbers come from, or have any more info on what's going on here ? I suspect a lot of people on this board would be delighted to find a property at 3.3xsalary for 18% of take home pay. Yet this is supposed to be the national average setup for FTBs ? Looking through rightmove there is one single 1 bed property within 20 miles of where I live to be bought for the kind of money the CML quote (on an above average salary at that). In the town that property is in, if you didn't grow up locally then you get beaten up for being posh. I would be looking at 60-70% of take home pay (1 salary) or 40-50% (2 salaries) to buy with repayment anywhere else round here. Where have the CML found these people - does it simply reflect the enormous proportion that are priced out ? Or is my area 'special' ?
  15. Here's something I've been monitoring for a while I believe I may have spotted a trend in this data (look carefully for the tell tale 'blimey it's going through the roof' near the right hand side).
  16. Vincent Tchenguiz is bidding to become one of Britain’s largest residential landlords with a £500m venture to take advantage of the exodus from the buy-to-let sector. Mr Tchenguiz is to agree a deal with the Royal Bank of Scotland on Monday, which will see the creation of a fund that will grow to £500m over five years. "The fund will be used to buy large numbers of homes that will be let to people unable to get on the property ladder." Buy To Let Bar Steward Presumably just the same people who would have bought the homes if there wasn't 500m flooding into the market... "Tchenguiz has a particular penchant for fast cars, speedboats and parties — and gambling". Hope this one fulfils the latter...
  17. Looking at the 1ML2 spreadsheet they've produced, on the quarterly data, the income multiple for first time buyers is the highest it has been since data collection started in 1974 ! It's also 44% higher than the highest it ever reached during the period 1988-1991 I'm not sure where they find these FTBs who seem to live in places with 34k median salaries yet only need a mortgage of 114k median
  18. Did we already do this one ? Merv's letter "When the MPC was set up in 1997, the chances of going almost ten years without an open letter being triggered seemed negligible" [how much of the letter did he write then so it was all nice and ready?] Gordy's response "I welcome your confirmation that the committee will look through the short-term volatility in inflation over the next year or so and set Bank Rate to keep inflation on track to meet the 2% target in the medium term" [letting him off for the next year ?]
  19. "The titanic will always be buoyant and will never run out of steam" 'all smiles' Shipside
  20. That's was a good spot - 1/2 an hour later the .5% rise is now 20 to 1 ! for the person who wanted an economist joke : A mathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job. The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks "What do two plus two equal?" The mathematician replies "Four." The interviewer asks "Four, exactly?" The mathematician looks at the interviewer incredulously and says "Yes, four, exactly." Then the interviewer calls in the accountant and asks the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The accountant says "On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average, four." Then the interviewer calls in the economist and poses the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The economist gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to the interviewer and says "What do you want it to equal?"
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