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camem'

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Everything posted by camem'

  1. Anyone got a recent update from Dr Bubbs house builders index ? Just wondering what it was predicting what with Barratt down another 22% today
  2. "In the worst year of the nineties crash, prices fell by 5.2 per cent." Times Tempus Article if you do the real Halifax year on year (no three month malarkey), we're more than that already, right (6.2% according to Jac) ? gosh, it's only June. Turns out it is different this time...
  3. RICS April Report (PDF) "these are the worst market conditions that many agents have ever seen." "Completed house sales are, this year, the lowest since our records began before the 90’s housing crash." "any purchaser in a position to proceed appears to be waiting to see if prices continue to fall." "There is no crash, but the media is causing one."
  4. Hang on, aren't we jumping the......... oh no wait, you're right, it's a big fat porky.
  5. This article works well with some minor adjustments, see first paragraph
  6. (with apologies for the ref. to the other place)
  7. You want to look at this graph, which corrects for long term house price inflation (which turns out to be 5.9%). The 5.9% is chosen in order to do just that, but reassuringly both the peaks and troughs line up which suggests it is somewhere near right. Tells you when to expect the crash to be over, too
  8. Did i mishear or did the prudent one say "we have got to ensure that house prices start booming again" ? (on radio 4 about 0820)
  9. Last week I also wrote to mine - I thought he might be some use since he's always in Westminster with lofty concerns on his mind - rarely around in the constituency, anyway. His office said they'd pass it on when he got back to the office. Which presumably is after he'll have had any chance to have any input.. >Every budget announcement hailed by the government talks about using my >taxes to benefit married couples, those with children, or pensioners, >not one of which for the moment applies to me. This I have accepted. > >Rather, it is hearing Gordon claim yesterday that the govt. is "doing >everything in our power to make sure that we can underpin the housing >market" - which, after all, has been one of the key drivers behind our >debt based credit expansion which now threatens so many people's >livelihoods - followed by a proposal to directly use taxes to postpone >my generation's ability to eventually buy a modest home etc etc etc - that moves me to request your assistance. > >I would welcome hearing your current thinking on this issue.
  10. shameless bump, but I think this graph is important
  11. Hopefully anyone who sees this graph won't
  12. I think the projection there is pretty extreme already... did you notice that in the last month, we covered pretty much the whole 2005 'downturn' in real terms ?
  13. Here by popular demand from last time, is the more sedentary 2.0% version. As you can see, this one doesn't revert to the norm, which does tell us that the market reckons long term house price inflation is more like 5.9% than 2%, surprise surprise I acknowledge that this one reflects affordability better if you don't get 6% pay rises though ! Edit : Mar 2008 prices (was June 2007)
  14. I last produced this graph in January. The futures were pretty 'gloomy'. They've since been adjusted down. To make this graph priced in today's money I chose a rate of fixed yearly inflation for the last 25 years - I chose the one that made the long term price limits most comparable (5.9%). The futures are from spreadfair. The last drop in the blue line is the 2.5% fall that hit the press recently. Whenever I do this I end up wondering if it is worth buying the futures (betting they won't fall quite *that* fast) but I'm sure there's a message about a bear turning bull in there somewhere
  15. Finally, somewhere to post this link : Adult Pizza Costume ($29.99)
  16. So the mail reported number of mortgage products at Pre-credit crunch (2007) : 15,500 3rd April AM 2008 : 4754 3rd April PM 2008 : 4329 Seems they just looked at this page Moneyfacts Mortgage Search and (without submitting the request) looked at the bottom "Your search for a mortgage will be carried out across xxx products". Today's magic number (4th April 2008 PM) is 4023 - let's see what happens next
  17. oh no that's very unlikely - you're forgetting house prices only ever go up !
  18. From a singing pig. Presumably next year he'll buy at 50% BMV and the whole thing will be OK, phew, what a fuss over nothing ! "My strategy for this year is buy at 30 % BMV, last year was 20%. You`ve got to allow for the predicted falls, otherwise in 2-3 yrs when your fixed/discounted rate finishes your paying for tenants to live in your properties!! Don`t listen to anyone who advises you saying it`s worth subsidising for the future capital appreciation.CASH IS KING!! if you want to survive the drop in the market." Singing Pig Market Value thread Also saw this on the main page : Discussion General property chat. No market trend discussion.
  19. Slow start to spring market Levels of market activity improve for a second month but pricing is still under downward pressure By Richard Donnell, Director Research, Hometrack House prices fell for the sixth month in a row over March with average prices down 0.2% over the month and the annual rate of growth slipping to +0.4% - the lowest level for 2 years. Buyer registrations continue to rise... Continuing last month's trend, March saw an increase in the number of buyer registrations (1.2%) and an 8% increase in sales agreed. But it's still a slow spring market... Although this is all encouraging news, these findings should be put into context as the growth in demand over the last two months is just a third of the level seen in previous years. Transaction volumes are still low... The reality is that the majority of households simply do not need to move and this has resulted in major declines in market activity over the last six months. Hometrack continue to forecast a 17% drop in transaction volumes over 2008. Across the country... The latest survey shows that prices were down across 28.8% of postcodes, the majority of which were in London and the South East where values have been slowing off a high base. This is a trend that could continue in London as the supply of homes for sale here is rising faster than levels of demand. London saw a further increase in the supply of homes for sale n March rising by +8.4%, while demand only grew by 2% this month. Elsewhere, market conditions were weakest in the East Midlands, Wales and the West Midlands where selling times are increasing and the proportion of asking price being achieved is below average.
  20. Reminds me of this one spreadfairhalifax.bmp spreadfairhalifax.bmp
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