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camem'

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Everything posted by camem'

  1. Investing E-Letter - House Prices: Brace yourself for a Brutal 2009! So this link is to a guy peddling some investment report that you're supposed to get into, start believing, then pay for. Nothing special there. What's interesting to me is that this is the exact tone which was used on the way up to get you to invest in prices rising (Think Inside Track et al). These guys are now pushing the downside as the 'secret' that no-one else understands. Does that mean the only way is up (for those who keep saying that please consider the jump back to zero that the BBC News graph of Nationwide/Halifax indices would have to make within one year) ? Or is the 'consumer hype' phase of the crash just beginning ?
  2. harry, if you are frankie jordan that's a lot of fivers to hand out
  3. A few months ago someone posted here a list of the weapons in the arsenal of a central bank used in the name of staving off recession / depression. It went something like : drop interest rates until you can't any more then print some money and buy short dated gilts then print a lot of money and buy long dated gilts some other things I can't remember probably hyperinflation featured here somewhere, maybe even 100% guaranteed but there were a couple more things at least before you reached general economic armageddon can anyone dig it out / remember who posted it ? Just seems it might be worth another look
  4. says a spokesman from the, er, Treasury. BBC News - UK Government Bond Auction Fails
  5. So the landlord is approaching retirement, and finally wants his house back this year (our choice when) so he can sell up and start winding down his letting business. I actually don't think he's declaring 55% off current prices in a panic, he's just starting gradually to sell off as he always intended. Having done very well in terms of stability renting (same house for 5 years) I quite like not having to move or be kicked out every 3 months, and I obviously don't want to buy a house, so the question is, how can I be sure that my next landlord is solvent and will continue to be, while retaining their 'investment' (i.e. my pad), as long as I want to stay ? In an odd role reversal, I guess I really want to do a credit check on them / make sure they're not going to panic and sell any time soon. Has anyone identified a better / more formal way than asking the odd impertinent question while being shown round ? Have I been on this site too long, and actually it's a fair bet that any landlord still operating is good for the long term ?
  6. we should go easy on this guy - I believe he is actually going to miss the boat
  7. This gem is buried in another thread but surely deserves one of its own If I recall correctly at least once every few months since this site's inception someone has declared that one of the indicators of when the crash is really getting going is when the esteemed Sun newspaper uses the word in a headline about property. Well, after several years, here we finally are Sun Crash Headline OR, does it have to be on the front page of the print copy ? OR, did I miss the other 20 crash headlines already ?
  8. i hope they've got the message that noone likes fortnightly collections
  9. I think this is what they call chasing the market down
  10. Yep, the assumption would be that when they're as affordable as they were the last two times they stopped falling, they'll stop falling this time round too. Unless it's different this time, in which case the 3.5% graph might be a better starting point to make your own estimates. From the graph looks like we'll know in jsut a few months whether it really is different this time (i.e. stop at 130,000 or keep falling). Also remember there could be wild inflation over the next year, but my graph would still correct for 5.9%. In this case everyone could be right - it bottoms out at the same level as before in the graph, but the real cost is much lower than 130,000 in today's money
  11. Tough crowd... I actually think the non-bubble growth was the same, because the lows lined up as well as the peaks at 5.9%. Anyway, here's 3.5%
  12. But that's exactly it - the idea is to remove long term house price inflation from the picture, so we can see a graph that fluctuates around a fixed long term average. These fluctuations then represent all the other things apart from inflation that affect house prices, like availability of credit, MEW, interest rates etc. My biggest assumption really is that they always go equally unaffordable whenever they're high, and equally affordable whenever they're low. I'd say that's at least 50% guaranteed to be true, so it's better than flipping a coin, right ?
  13. It makes the graph peaks and troughs line up. That's the best indicator we've got (using halifax figures since 1983, anyway) for long term HPI. It's also not too far off ultra long term interest rates (Tesco 50 year bond went for 5.23% last year)
  14. Looks like it doesn't it, give or take some inflation... Although I've heard that credit's not as easy to come by these days (personally I reckon even that might be a bit better by mid-2010, 27K mortgage approvals does seem a little 'unsustainable')
  15. Here's an update of the spreadfair/halifax graph. Spreadfair don't actually want to play any more, so we've got IG Index stepping up to the mark (just as bearish, but only willing to look ahead to Mar 09) For those who don't know, this is the halifax figures rebased (adjusted to Jan 09 prices) as if there was 5.9% long term inflation. This value is chosen to make the peaks and troughs line up so we can judge this crash against what has gone before. Before you all point it out, I know today's headline inflation isn't 5.9%, however the average HPI over the last 25 years has been so it's a better adjustment for this type of graph. Pretty isn't it ? I'd say we're over half way through the crash already. Good news, as they say, for some.
  16. well, that settles it then, hopefully that will save everyone a lot of trouble. What did we do before the internet ?
  17. For those who have been fretting about this important point, here is the price of cheese. Cheese (Edam or Gouda) Price difference in percent compared to 2005
  18. Doesn't it say that current demand (and therefore price) for future emissions of CO2 is probably low vs the long term average ?
  19. Yup, that's about the size of it, although it's a bit more free market than that as once the market is set up and the regulation is in place, the market will set the price according to how much profit they can still make from emitting carbon. It's a 'free markets' response to the argument of the Stern report that "Climate change is a result of the greatest market failure the world has seen.". Stern: Climate change a 'market failure' (Guardian)
  20. Does anyone know a sharedealer that supports investing in carbon futures, maybe the new CARP.L or CARB.L ETF securities ? They list halifax online as a broker which I happen to have an account with, but they don't seem to be selling them yet. Just thinking with oil down and the public imagination ready for another bubble in a couple of years, especially one where your investment is 'ethical' and actually makes it less profitable for companies to emit carbon so that they do it less, this might be the time to get in. Especially with Obama's declaration that a bill suppporting a US carbon emissions cap and trade scheme will be an early priority. He actually supports cutting US carbon emissions by 80% by 2050. Making emitting carbon very expensive is about the only way to do that, and he wants to put the right structures in place. Days after his announcement, China declared that their government will introduce a compulsory national carbon trading scheme, although "UN rules mean that the resulting credits have to be registered in the developed economies that buy them – a fact that limits China's role as a trader of credits". Obama's green start (Independent) or alternatively Barack Obama Proposes Economic Suicide for US (Telegraph) China Plans for Domestic Carbon Trading (Business Green.com) For anyone who isn't convinced about carbon trading, try Charles Leadbeater (if you can get your hands on it) Living On Thin Air, Charles Leadbeater (Amazon)
  21. He certainly mentioned house owning families, but only ones that bought long enough ago. They're very important, as he explained, because they're the ones with vast housing wealth and so if you target them with tax cuts, they'll spend lots of money and everyone will be alright. Basically they're the only ones with any money left. Of course that doesn't go down too well with those that can't afford a family or a house. And presumably, those that have just been repossessed. The only 'joined up' bit I could see glinting through was him pinning his hopes on export. Manufacturing is actually still a 1/6 of our economy, so with a crashed pound and hammered interest rates, if that bit of the economy doesn't grow now, you have to wonder why we're so uncompetitive. "The manufacturing industry is responsible for a sixth of the UK’s national output, accounts for over half of UK exports, and undertakes 75 per cent of all business research and development" http://www.esrcsocietytoday.ac.uk/ESRCInfo...rcePageId=18135
  22. did you do this one already Tommyboy ? The 'Tommy Walsh eco house from on the TV' went for 115K. Not bad for the buyer since they spent £175 to buy the land and build it... more results here Strettons Current Auction Results
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