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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by camem'

  1. Is anyone here an FTB that has bought in the last year, but only using money that cannot be linked back to the currently high house prices ? let's say parents' help rules you out (assuming they're not renting), cos they've either re-mortgaged or are feeling rich now they own an expensive house)...
  2. I believe this is a misprint and was supposed to refer to the selling process... 'there's a liar for your house'...
  3. We've heard a lot about higher housing prices corresponding to a transfer of wealth from the young to the old. Is this process completely reversible as house prices fall ? has the younger generation (esp. those who *own* houses) been getting relatively (no pun intended) richer over the last year ? To counteract those who downsized while prices were high, what's the equivalent at the bottom of the ladder ? Those who held off buying ?
  4. congratulations to Nationwide for discovering the central principle of a MARKET. Free magnolia paint all round. Mind you, they're not quite there yet because they seem to use this argument to say it won't fall...
  5. not for long, after all here's the important one http://www.googlefight.com/index.php?lang=...lls&word2=bears and before anyone hassles me, no, there's no references to bulls or bears anywhere on the internet except when it concerns the housing market in the UK.
  6. great front page and article in the economist. Basically calling the top of the American market early next year (california was 20% up *quarterly* in latest figures); the interesting bit for me was the dismissive analysis of Australia and Britain's markets as being quite clearly into 'bust' phase, no questions asked... summary story here http://www.economist.com/finance/displayst...tory_id=4079027 "The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. Prepare for the economic pain when it pops " edit - of course, just noticed this has been pinned already, you guys are always one step ahead...
  7. Can someone with an IGIndex account confirm that a) HPI bet is back on, after downtime because too many betting heavily on a crash Their current mid level is about 159k in Mar 2006, a drop from 163k now Also what's the spread ? Surely we should all put our money where our mouth is, and as TTRTT exhorts us, 'get ahead' ?
  8. Unclear, but I imagine the gov and banks will both potentially lose money *on their 25% of the capital* The FTB will surely lose on their 75% of the capital. Otherwise (if the gov and banks are effectively insuring the entire FTB outlay against falls for free) this scheme actually looks pretty good, and we couldn't have that, now could we... I don't know where they've got this extra detail from, I can't find more details from the treasury (or anywhere else)
  9. if anyone's still confused, please bear in mind that 88.5 % of statistics are made up on the spot. Which is either a two-fold or three-fold increase on last years seasonalised quarterly rolling average of 29.5%. If you don't know which, try this really helpful description from 'labor law talk' (sorry yankee) twofold - having more than one decidedly dissimilar aspects or qualities; "a double (or dual) role for an actor"; "the office of a clergyman is twofold; public preaching and private influence" Synonyms: double, dual, treble, threefold
  10. Has it occurred to anyone else that while we wait for prices to come back down to anything remotely approaching affordable, the housing stock out there has been getting better and better ? A friend transformed a London ex council property (brand new modern kitchen, new flooring and lighting, kitchen tap worth £200 ), interior looks really great now - on market for the price she bought at but not sold yet; I imagine this is being repeated everywhere thanks to MEW, perceived profits, DIY programs on TV etc. While I'm not the world's biggest fan of magnolia, at least when our turn does come there's a heck of a lot been spent on uk houses in the last few years... especially as 'needs renovation' has been seen as a money making challenge
  11. I wouldn't buy a house that smelt of burning, flustered woman either...
  12. the Election Campaign - if you look closely, you realise it's all a bit too negative
  13. Have been reading since about July last year, but thought it was about time to get a better username and join in ! background : 26, don't really need to buy, started off wanting to make sure I wasn't losing a serious opportunity by not buying (which was what everyone including parents were telling me). Now addicted but have learnt a lot of amateur economics ! Some observations : 1) Only two of my graduate friends all now 2 1/2 years out of uni have managed to buy anywhere. Both were with substantial help from parents *and* city salaries. One has just completed on 'the next one up' (new build) before completing on her current sale . If they can only just make it work financially, there are swathes of people who can't consider it. This is my central argument for a continuing substantial fall. 2) Totally agree that the only ones really to make genuine money out of the housing market in the next 5 years will be STR. If the housing market is an investment this is the investment to make. I look forward to a few years time when the market will hopefully revert to being a collection of homes which people buy because they want them. 3) I think I live (rent) near a few people on the forum (Cambridge north of river) 4) find it hilarious that the 'financial' bit of the property programs is now a 30 sec round up at the end, that actually the house hasn't sold yet, but won't they have made a lot when it does, given how it used to be a 15 min in depth analysis of every £K made 5) not surprised about asking prices up, these are all the people with reasonable homes to sell that haven't been following closely but have recently heard that now might be a good time to sell, are biting the bullet but unaware that most (not all!) buyers have different expectations now. I think this period could last for a couple of months of published figures max (as we know the direction of Y0Y) 6) Why would BTL sell now ? With a falling market I would assume more people are renting. BTL would hate to make a capital loss so would be reluctant to sell for a good while, especially if it's intended as a pension investment, so if the renters are still around they'll simply carry on paying off and try and sit it out. The problem for them is when the renters can finally buy in a few years, rents drop and they suddenly are forced to sell right at the lowest point ? I've heard the figure of 7% a few times for BTL as proportion of market so don't expect them to be able to hold it up. Comments welcome 7) For the likes of me short term interest rates are pretty irrelevant as the capital outlay dwarfs this and - the whole shebang is out of reach. I'd like to think I'd take a long term view anyway and in some ways wouldn't argue with higher rates so the market is more competitive, given that inflation would be higher and the overall debt eroded sooner. The idea that I'm worrying about this or more amusingly the election result is classic. 8) OnlyMe has a fantastic picture of a cat in a watermelon (?).
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