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House Price Crash Forum

ExpatMike

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About ExpatMike

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    HPC Newbie
  1. http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/hous...es_N.htm?csp=34 "Unemployment is now the cause of almost half of all foreclosures on conventional mortgages, raising concerns that mounting joblessness will stall any housing recovery and could cause more foreclosures next year. The increase in unemployment as a cause is a significant shift from 2007, when foreclosures were primarily driven by the large number of homeowners who had taken on risky loans. Many were first-time home buyers or those who bought during the housing boom that ended in 2006." Whilst there have already been job losses in the UK, most believe that there are more to come in the first quarter of '09 - doesn't bode well for the property market if repossessions pick up at the rate that the US are now seeing.
  2. ".......Moreover, there are two strong counter-arguments. First, joining the euro would require the UK to hand over the responsibility for setting interest rates and other forms of monetary policy to the ECB. It sets euro monetary policy to achieve economic objectives for the eurozone as a whole, not for individual member countries. Our economy is very different from the eurozone average. Consequently, for much of the time, euro interest rates would be wrong for us. Moreover, although the ECB has, on the whole, done a pretty good job, it has displayed marked characteristics which may be very unhelpful in current circumstances. During its 10 years of existence, it has regularly been slower to respond to events than other central banks and less willing to change interest rates as aggressively. And just think how bad things would be now if the UK had adopted the euro at its formation in 1999, as the europhiliacs then urged." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...-than-ever.html
  3. U.K. House Prices Will Decline 10% Next Year, Rightmove Says: Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices extended declines in December and will drop a further 10 percent next year as the recession batters the British economy, Rightmove Plc said. The average price advertised by sellers fell 2.3 percent on the month to 217,808 pounds ($325,993), the operator of the U.K.’s biggest residential property Web site said today. Asking prices have dropped more than 10 percent from the peak in May and will fall by the same amount next year, Rightmove said. “It’s tough out there,” Miles Shipside, commercial director at Rightmove, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “The market will be affected by the unemployment that’s coming. While it’s sad, we do need to reach the bottom, and that will probably happen in 2009.” The dearth of loans is threatening to exacerbate the recession and has helped push home sales down to the lowest level since at least 1978. More than half of U.K. consumers plan to cut back on spending as they endure a squeeze on their finances, a survey by the Bank of England showed today. On the year, asking prices have fallen 6.3 percent, while sale prices are now typically about 25 percent below the peak, the report said. Rightmove forecast in December 2007 house prices would stagnate this year. In London, prices declined 5.1 percent on the year and rose 0.4 percent on the month. Homes in Wales have shed the most value this year, declining 13.4 percent, followed by the East Midlands, where prices dropped 12.8 percent. More in link http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...ro&refer=uk
  4. No coincidence that the Dow is up 200 points
  5. It seems that the dollar still has its "safe haven" status and generally trades the opposite direction to stocks - ie. if the markets are down, the dollar is up. The Dow ended down 680 (c.8%), Nasdaq & S&P were both down around 9%. Extract from USA Today "The market began the day sliding on initial reports that the start of holiday shopping, while better than some retailers and analysts feared, was mixed, a sign that Americans are very reluctant to spend.....At midday, Wall Street had confirmation of what everyone has suspected for months, that the nation is indeed in a recession - The National Bureau of Economic Research said the U.S. recession had begun a year ago, in December 2007.....Meanwhile, downbeat economic reports on the manufacturing sector and construction spending only added to investors' concerns."
  6. My situation is different as I have to move money from U$ to Sterling to pay bills etc. The weakening pound therefore benefits me as I'm paid in U$ - conversely it hurt me when Sterling was trading at over $2 to the pound. I'm not speculating on the valuation of the USD/GBP as such, I'm just waiting to lock in rates to cover my transfers, if I didn't need to move money I wouldn't be transferring money into Sterling as an investment (although money can be made with both long and short term trades). Unless you have a high appetite for risk I wouldn't recommend trading currencies - since you mention you "don't get the forex trading" then I definitely wouldn't advise you trade. Others have mentioned currency spread betting on here which could be used to hedge against an (effective) devaluation of sterling and that may be worth looking into but again you need to understand the fundamentals of currency trading.
  7. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...mp;attr=1185799 "London Scottish Bank, the lender which specialises in customers with poor credit histories, plunged into administration this morning after regulators stopped the group from accepting customer deposits."
  8. Link see 17Nov08 entry https://www.tradethenews.com/forex-news/Fix.../495094/GBP-USD
  9. SNIP There is a view in the market that Sterling may drop as low as the $1.35-$1.40 range - I follow it because I transfer money regularly from the US to the UK.
  10. Not the superman clip but relevant nevertheless . . . .
  11. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/no...ling-pre-budget Extract: "Alistair Darling has admitted that he will 'almost certainly' have to deliver a second dose of financial life-support to Britain's ailing economy as soon as next spring if his unprecedented £20bn tax-and-spending package fails to contain the recession."
  12. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...-the-worst.html Short answer is....no
  13. Thanks Clocker, I can't access the BBC iPlayer from outside the UK.
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