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About shaggy35

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  1. I can't believe someone who is an ardent bear can now be labelled a troll in this forum. I made numerous comments to add to the debate but because I bought (reluctantly) I'm labelled a troll, this is the problem with this forum. It's like some protest march that starts off with the will of the people and with all the right sentiments but then is infiltrated by a bunch of w**kers
  2. I don't think that the two statements are opposed to be honest
  3. Why don't you try and comment on some of the things i actually said instead of just making a false assumption about me having 'multi-millionniare pals'. I didn't say you were going wrong I was just adding to the debate.........some people in here are very entrenched and seem to think that all home-owners are w****ers it ain't true and you limit points of view. don't get me wrong I'm bearish beyond belief and cut my cloth accordingly but couldn't be arsed to wait on what is at the end of the day a highly uncertain future.
  4. I started waiting in Aug 2007 when I sold my house, rented, found landlords all to be c***s, basically they take your money and couldn't care less. Eventually September last year I had had enough. Found a lovely 15 year fixed rate mortgage from Britannia (that you could get out of every three years without penalty! thought this was fantasic - no longer available of course), bought a house for 270k got 125k (interest only) mortgage, kept some 'special' savings for the rainy day. The problem I found with waiting were these constant questions 1/ will house prices go up rapidly at some point in the future as a result of inflation (if not in real terms) and what would happen to my nest-egg? 2/ will fixed rates disappear or go up massively, leaving me with the worry of being a mortgagee with rising double digit interest rates (unable to fix)? 3/ was the money in the bank actually safe? 4/ does a landlord exist who isn't a c***t ? 5/ how much am I spending on rent whilst not doing anything? 6/ could house prices actually rise in real terms in the short-medium term (the US 'got out' of the Nadaq recession by lowering interest rates and printing money, why couldn't this happen in the UK now?). This dance of death could continue for many years, why renters put up with living room walls that are painted light blue! 7/ With high inflation on the way wouldn't I rather be a debtor than a creditor? I am, as if you couldn't tell, an inflationist - weak currencies like the GBP and USD are a symptom of inflation - this country cannot afford to become involved in a deflationary spiral, it has too much debt - the only way out is to monetise the debt - everytime something bad happens they will print, make no mistake. It's always the same - government spends what it doesn't have, prints money to cover its ass, result - inflation (there is of course the problem of sovereign debt and how much money our creditors will let us print, surprisingy the answer to this is already 'quite a bit'). I am in business and believe me there are alot of very rich people with cash who are looking to put their money into just about anything but cash! I know of multi-millionnaires buying up commercial property, overseas millionnaires looking to buy uk businesses, hard assets not cash - sound familiar? Will house prices go down in real terms eventually - of course they will - we are f***ed, but i'd rather be f***ed with a roof over my head. I now have a 'manageable' mortgage and am financially 'secure' (well as the next man) and can get off this forum which I have to say is one of the most depressing places to spend a year. And I am now back to living a life!!
  5. Hi Just seeing what people think about this quandry. I know nobody can solve my 'problem' but I think this is a good question to get inflation vs deflation viewpoints. I have STR fund 150K Own Business 750K-1.5M (online retail 'essential clothing' not luxury item) Found a house I love £380K Fallback business just started capable of producing 25-30K pa one year from now. Should I???? 1) SHOUT 'BANK' sell business, buy house for cash and some land, concentrate on new business 2) Keep business, continue to rent and put more time into smaller business. 3) Keep business, buy house take out very 'large' (for me) mortgage on fixed rate This all assumes I can sell business, but there seems to be an air of optimism and quite a few businesses are being sold. Shaggy
  6. I agree totally with this, I think the 'inflation washing your debts away' argument is the new 'lack of land short supply argument'. However, if you go in now with a 10 year fixed rate you might not be the worst of times. But yes, it is not in the governments interests to cause massive inflation and house prices would continue to drop like a stone if this were the case, yes it MAY pay your debts of quicker but high interest rates would get you first and the asset your debts are secured on would probably be dropping at the same rate, its a nil sum game I think.
  7. +1 I made an offer on a house recently, when I rang the estate agent they told me there was already an offer in. I did the wrong thing and offered more than i thought it was worth, then quickly backed out cos I got the jitters! DO NOT believe anything an estate agent tells you, you have to do what YOU think is right, regardless of what the EA's are saying. Last month the same EA told me it was going crazy in their office with offers and I was missing an opportunity - the same house is now still on the market but at 30K less than last time! its all rubbish and I feel a fool for listening to anything they had to say.
  8. You need big balls and not much of family I would imagine.....but yes, you're never going to get the opportunity to get 10 year fixed rates at such low interest rate, couple with the ability for it to be inflated away.......where to invest it though........DVD's or farming
  9. Everyone's withdrawn it and moved it to the northern rock or national savings? i mean who is going to keep more than 50K on deposit with any non-guaranteed institution, everyone I talk to say they've got all their money in the northern rock, no wonder they've paid back half of what they owe already!
  10. Well its made him alot of money when it suited him, just like it suited him to pretend not to be a Jew when he was removing property from other Jews in Germany, but I think reflexivity is sound.
  11. On Panorama last night the BBC would have you believe that tonnes of businesses are screaming for money just to operate BUT as Soros's theory of Reflexivity would imply.......as everything is moving to the downside the Banks see no point in lending the money to businesses, if they think they may not be viable in future, these businesses therefore become less viable due to lack of credit and on and on we go................exactly the same thing happened for the house price boom. Unfortunately, the banks are not sophisticated enough to reflect on themselves and their role in both boom and bust. This is why markets gyrate so wildly and are incapable of regulating themselves. I have swallowed the Soros rulebook i'm afraid, the guy talks sense
  12. +1 A certain degree of optmism saves us from suicide, an over abundance of optimism can turn us into thoughtless morons. If anyone has any doubts of the kind of things we are facing here, I urge you to listed to the ole devil himself - george soros, he may be a duplicitous sod but I think he really does understand the situation the world is in. (its in three parts)
  13. Interesting point about the great depression and unemployment rates, fair point, we can make it sound like no-one had work. But what age group will we stuff this time, what do we think about inflating pensions away? and therefore bailing out those with debt? where do we think the political will actually lies I'd just like to add though that in 1920's the average debt was around 160 percent of GDP, the US is heading towards 500....wooo hooo now that would be some debt deflation!
  14. I am looking a little into what is coming rather than what has acutually happened I admit. Yes most people are paying less on their mortgage and are technically 'better off' but how secure are their jobs, regardless of the fact that they've decided to settle down for 20 years. To argue that a 20% drop in house prices has made everyone better off, then I don't understand what you are saying? We are undergoing one of the most serious economic fractures sinced 1930, and yes most people will tick along very nicely through all of this, but there are now 200,000 homes with mortgage arrears of 3 months or more, I would hate to incorporate a 'struggling' figure into this. Unemployment is going through the roof in the US. Things are getting worse, but if you want to take this one snapshot in time and call it prosperity for the masses, then wow!! The problem is I maybe don't know any average people, cos most of the people I know are struggling with a massive debt cos they've really gone for it with houses, or are worried about their job security, or the security of their savings 'let the good times roll though'! I would just like to add to this that the savings ratio as a percentage of GDP both here and in the US is abysmally low, people have been using their houses as piggy banks for the future, and yes that most definitely is the average person. The average person in my opinion is *******
  15. As far as I am aware the US are in a similar situation to us, i wasn't thinking of BTL's at all. The people I was thinking of were people who have taken out high loan to value mortgages in a rapidly deteriorating economy. Many will face negative equity and possible foreclosure (please note I dont' mean all), I'm sure there are happy families who don't care about the price of their house. But the previous poster indicated that for the average person things are getting better - are things for the average person getting better over here??? i don't think so. As for being bound, I can see lots of people bound to their property in the UK, they just don't seem to be able to sell around here at all. My only possible error is in making a comparison in my mind between the UK and the US, but we do seem to be facing the same problems.... Now if AA3 meant the disenfranchised latin immigrant, well yes possibly??
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