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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. I am wildly speculating but comment as follows.................... They may announce the task in hand is bigger than thought due to mess left by new labour. They may announce & outline considerable reforms but also indicate they are still deliberating & fine tuning other reform plans not least of all because they are reviewing recommendations, ( I suspect still some bean counting to be done as outgoing team might not have left clear bookwork). I expect to hear talk along lines of "final details will be annouinced in next budget" This will give time to do more digging & for Con's & Lib Dem's to thrash differences behind closed doors, (rather than openly rowing re child benefit, pension reform & uni fees etc)., as well as time to gauge wider opinion re certain potential measures. I still reckon there will be changes announced though not yet convinced all will be clear on the day concerned. Of course I could be wide of the mark & the above may turn out to be nonsense.
  2. LOL - Thats funny but potentially quite a likely scenario if it ever happened. I listened to ther linked programe with interest. ( Also interesting to learn of overdue PAYE admin overhaul that is cited as the reasoning behind the proposed future discrepancy which will penalise single earning familiescreeping into 40%) Losts of discussion re the hsitoric factors that crerated the high house price situation. Lots of polictical finger pointing here, some point at New Labour, others blame the last Tory team & even old Labour. Whilst outgoing goverment(s) can be blamed there are many factors involved. This got me thinking........ We could blame those responsible for 9/11, the market collapse & cheap, (poorly regulated & sharply traded), money that followed. We could blame post WW2 governments for creating massive council estates on back of homes flattened by the Luftwaffe Indeed we could analyse even further back in time ....................Some may be cynical of wiki but, (in abscence of having a deep knowedge of the history of uk council & social housing), I found this interesting http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Council_house Back towards main topic then............I found it refereshing that I.D.S. seems aware of the task in hand & good news he intends to address the lining of BTL landlords poockets from stupid rental payments currently in line with private rentals. History is all well & good but some would argue that the sensible focus is on the present & the future, ( however affected by the past) My post timing not brilliant & I appreciate thread comments have evolved , however, I felt need to add my two penneth. Good thread with lots of interesting debate
  3. A bit harsh - at least on Jez who I think was fairly neutral apart from the "ignore news unless your postcode mentioned" comments. I take it you didn't email that poem in ! A link below for all the Trevor fans http://www.trevorkent.com/mpfiles/tk2/index.htm I like this quote " Trevor Kent Property Commentator & Broadcaster For over 20 years Trevor Kent (or Big T as he is sometimes known) has been the voice and face of the British housing market on television, radio, and in the press. Big T ? ...................... Answers on a postcard
  4. Jeremy just said CRASH ! The guy on the show was talking up BTL and buying 2nd homes for the kids ! Trevor Kent - or was that mispronounced ? ( former president of the association of estate agents or something)
  5. Well here's hoping for some forced reality. Does anyone know how to access more specific regional or even town detailed breakdowns from Hometrack ???.
  6. Yes - thanks we both listened to it....................I posted comments in your WS thread.
  7. Jazzman, Yes the OP stated he had a certain impression, however, I am sure this was based on a significant & longstanding understanding of the local market. I'm fairly confident that my less scientific assesment of the market is pretty accurate, (& similar to the impression expressed by the OP. What is happening In N.I. should have happened whether to a greater or lesser extent.........clearly the outgoing government were happy to put it on the plastic as they had the option to pass on the bill to the incoming team. One coastal EA, (in this neck of the woods), reckons approx 75% of business is non mortgage funded & with many properties bought as holiday or 2nd homes................................If a given area has only 25% of buyers needing to borrow then it likely to be less affected by changes in earnings, & availablity of borrowing. One would hope that those wise or fortunate enough to be cash buyers would still be shrewd enough to push prices down by wise negotiations based on the national climate, however, there are seemingly significant numbers of daft cash buyers happy to pay OTT by responding to greedy sellers &/or EA's. Thanks for the audio link..................quite funny in places. T.I.W. Sorry to hear you & your other half also affected by local market. Ironic that I have just read an article on Sky News claiming prices dropping in every region.
  8. Thanks T.O.W. , Hmmm.............We found somewhere 5 miles away from last place. Location & square footage fine but we have had damp issues - even in summer. Adressed damp with landlord though not convinced her response will sort it, (i.e. fitting an extractor fan in one bathroom is IMO unlikely to sort damp issue in most rooms). Renting & last forced move in particular now taking it's toll & not only on wallet...................I'm fed up with situation - the other half significantly more so. Nothing to report - seeing isolated circa 5-6% drops but only on stuff overpriced intitially relative to other stuff already out there. IMO local market needs at least 20% off & maybe 30% on stuff 400k upwards. Convinced we're higher in prices than 2007 now. Apologies for delay - tbh I am so gobsmacked & fed up with property prices that I haven't logged on here for a while. I'll let you know just before we totally lose the plot - Forty something with family, years ticking by & in rental..........Not good. Speak soon.
  9. Cheers, Currently renting ,( on notice), a band F council tax 4 bed detached in Chi @ 1250 pcm - in honesty I wasn't keen in spending over £1k pcm at the time we moved in (1/09) Gas & electric £150 pcm as insulation poor & boiler is poor - not ideal as house sizeable but not huge & energy bills should be no more than £80 pcm IMO. Looking at 3 beds min ideally, ( 2 teenagers plus wife & myself), with a garage or spare reception for some storage as dont want to unpack everything thats boxed. New rentals seem to be typically up 20% on January last year. Looking at something tomorrow that might be ok albeit not ideal as parking a bit of a compromise.
  10. Tired of Waiting, I had prior read the HB discussion & seen the copy of the letter. Pehaps I should just give up I could declare myself liable for sick benefit due to a bad back, dependancy on alcohol & drugs & being too stresssed to work ! I would get subsidised rental from HB & could be paid to sit at home & watch Jeremy Kyle all day. Either that or move into politics & claim the costs of my financial trickery & accountancy fees to manage same from the tax payer.
  11. Hmm - Time will tell no doubt. Fwiw you havent been replying in vein. I had difficulty in logging in but all seem agian fine now, (on the this computer at least) I replied to your West Sussex thread btw. I agree we need to wait to see any changes in market on back of CGT & other budget announcements & in meantime I expect a slight increase in instructions to sell following recent CGT stories & suspension of HIPS perhaps meaning those who cant afford one might advertise & thus more instructions taken. Oh & we've been served notice........Great !
  12. You prior kindly responded to my Chichester thread, (sorry for absent reply but I had trouble logging in until recently). Re Chichester prices & 10 miles radius within W.Sussex I can report that IMO asking prices are back to peak. & this was confirmed to me a few weeks ago for the Aldwick area when a local agent made that very statement. We are renting a 4 bed detached & our landlords put it up for sale recently. They are asking 34% more than an identical house which sold 2 doors up in 1/09. I reckon this one may be worrth 15 % more than our rneighbours due to gargen size & , but this to my maths makes this property marked up by 20% on what it would have commanded 15 months ago. This can't continue as there arent any FTB's. Due to being in my early 40's & with teen kids we are perhaps more motivated than some to own depite the maths making it seeming daft to buy now. Thus I hang on to HPC optimistic posts on here as well as keeping an eye on News articles that point towards a crash. Personally I'm not seeking a massive crash but if a crash occurs I would lilkem to see it over a s shorter terms as possible as I am keen to avoid incurring significant equity loss as a a result of jumping on too quickly. I think the CGT increases will see a lot more properties on the market as many amatuer BTL's & /or 2nd 3rd home owners try to bail out. That will see an increase in supply of houises for sale. If borrowing was more attainable subhect to realistic LTV multiplers then that should lead to more buyers, however, the reality is that with the banks lending very little, (relative to say 2.5 yrs ago), I doubt that there will be enough demand to match the ammount of properties, (due to restrictions on folk being able to secure sufficent sized mortgages). Thus something will have to give to re establish a flowing market. I feel either by prices will., ahve to come down or lending will have tom be more attainabale. The other factor is of course intersst rates ironically if these rise, ( & repo assistance weakens), the logic is more repos will appear. The downside is if interest rates rise then the cost to buy will be greater in terms of monthly payments. In the meantime rental prices increase in West Sussex. I viewed a rental up for £1400 near identical to a now sold property in the sdame road that was securing a monthly rental of just £1100 until a few weeks ago. The landlord of the marketed rental refused to reduce to £1100 despsite me referring to the lower priced rental opposite. The figure of £1100 was a start point with a view to negotiating to £1250 but £1250 was out of the question for him. (I was told some mutterings of spending money to tidy it up after last tenants left. I represented that such costs would be met from outgoing tenants deposit if they left it in a tatty state of decor &/or repair but letting agent was having none of it). PMS lettings in Chichester has Zero rental available from £700 - 1500 PCM when I checked last week. They say remntals are in high demand. What I cant understand is if rentals are in such high demand then why do there currently seem to be a significantly high volume of folk in rentals trying to buy rather than continue to rent ? I think most realise a few are being taken in by the trap caused by the bounce in the last 2 yrs but I hope the tide is changing. No doubt the budget will impact on matters & I see in the Brighton thread folk talking of EA's being stormed by follk keen to seel to avoid increadsed CGT. As has beenn said elsewhere if it's delayed to sday 4/11 then we should see plenty trying to get rid. If not then perhaps many will keep hold of property as no incentive to minimise CGT increases. I really am struggling to give myself answers. Just as I seem to think I am reasonably forecasting the future the market seems to suggest otherwise. Very frustrating albeit one positve thought is many single property owners are IMO currently property rich but not income rich. Of course many will remain unafffected. ( i.e. not forced to seel for reduced prices), unless interest rates rise &/or disposable income reduces. Then of course availability from forced sdales would increase.................Still doesn't sort ourt the lending gap though unless a big drop occurs. You may have your own thoughts on some or all of the above as I know you are one of the more deeper thinking contibutors on here & in this general geographical area. I cetainly don't look into the tiniest detail as much as some so take my comments accordingly. That said, we do spend a lot time looking at asking prices & have done over last few years thus your current evaluation is IMO correct for coast from Hants to the Arun.. In summary I haven't a bloody clue anymore ! LOL In the meantime I need to find a new rental by 1/7/10 or I am buying a caravan !!!
  13. Well this just isn't funny anymore. Came close to buying in Felpham in Jan 2009 but local school wouldn't give our child a secondary school place so we pulled out. Been paying silly rent figures for 20 months & it's starting to get tighter each month ! Landlord making sounds of wanting to sell & nothing out there which represents rental or purchase value ! EA last week on Bognor outskirts said " We're almost right back to where we were at peak" (blamed lack of supply) ! I know for a fact I will now struggle to borrow anything like I could in 2008 ! Out teenage kids aren't getting any younger - eldest at univeristy in next 18 months ! Both of us sick of renting ! Would probably stuggle to buy the house we sold in 20089 ( we reduced significantly to get a sale when others were too greedy) ! Mortgage lenders increasingly tightening criterias & reducing max lending ! I feel whichever government gets elected a real budget will squeeze folk hard ! I read this site & moneyweek to tell myself rises are due to a blimp not a steady rise ! Prices silly high near Chichester ! Local repo 4 bed was recently priced at £340k to sell but due to interest shown was withdrawn & remarketed days later for £400k. Trying to be strong but feel myself increasingly slipping towards THE BULL TRAP ! Sensible polite comments from others appreciated.
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