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Jimmy James

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Everything posted by Jimmy James

  1. Has anyone got figues as to the percent of interest only mortgages in relation to new mortgages (i.e. to FTB's). This would be an interesting figure. It may be that IO mortgages are now becoming the only vehicle through which FTBs are able to get involved in the market. Hence we are now seeing a new structure to the financing of the market - shifting to IOs. The debate happening on the FT board at the moment reflects this. Some FTBs are saying - 'I don't understand the problem of affordability, I can afford a mortgage and have just got on the ladder'. When pressed they are all, of course, us
  2. Hi there Interesting statistics on inequality from the latest UNDP Human Development Report. Britain now has a higher Gini Index (at 36.0) than Pakistan (33.0) and India (32.5) http://hdr.undp.org/statistics/data/indica...m?x=148&y=3&z=2 A value of 0 represents perfect equality, a value of 100 perfect inequality. Given that both India and Pakistan have pockets of extreme poverty and fairly healthy remaining feudal structures in rural areas combined with major pockets of hyper wealth created by business and political and military elites I think this is fairly good going. Go new
  3. Fascinating stuff - looks like he might be preparing the intellectual ground for the house price bust and his successors troubles, and his own toga roll of economic sage in retirement. A bit like the Kissinger model, tho perhaps a house price collapse will be Greenspan's 'bomb Cambodia' equivilant? --------------- Mr Greenspan gave a brief history of monetary policy over the US central bank's 90-year history. Attempts to find simple rules or single indicators to guide monetary policy - such as the money supply, commodity prices or the yield curve have failed. Central bankers have to take int
  4. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/talking_point/4183374.stm Why no political parties try to use this anger to have a go at Brown is beyond me, but seems that writing your MP to have a pop at the SIPPs proposal is now well worth while.
  5. In fact Larry Elliot is Charlotte's boss, so you could e-mail him and ask why there news items our so out of line with their comment pieces ("welcome excellent analysis and comment in the Guardian business section, but why are your new pieces churning out EA's press releases with very poor underlying economic analysis?") Larry.Elliot@guardian.co.uk
  6. The reporters e-mail address will be Charlotte.Moore@guardian.co.uk if you want to fire away, you could ask her why she hasn't read what Ashley Seager and Larry Elliot have been writing recently.
  7. Yep, dictators and shieks of all shades do tend to invest in western assets on the comfort blanket basis. And on the trickle down point - i agree that a shiek buying from a russian oligarch is itself not going to have much knock on effect. But it is not a closed system. The patterns of housing wealth spreading from Kensington to Notting Hill to Kensil Rise (sp?), Chelsea to Fulham to Battersea to Clapham looks to have some causal domino pattern. Anyone got some stats on comparative growth rates ?
  8. Sorry to bum you guys out. But increase in oil prices also mean an increase in petro dollars - and petro dollars in the hands of wealthy shieks with conspicious consumption in London property markets at that. Although you need to balance this against a) negative impacts of high oil prices and other ways in which petro dollars will be used, think it's important not to factor this out. Petro dollars are very powerful financial tide - just look at the last oil crisis. Any thoughts on influence? ---------------- Arab Gulf oil wealth to be spent on foreign assets By Javier Blas in London
  9. An analysis piece that interviews 'property market experts' that include - a) an estate agent, b ) an agency set up by estate agents and c) a economist with a luke warm prediction. Is this fulfilling their mandate to fair and balanced reporting? Seems fairly lopsided to me given other prediction of falls (that go unreported). http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4132036.stm Journo: Julian Knight E-mail address should be: Julian.Knight@bbc.co.uk or Julian.Knight.01@bbc.co.uk
  10. Another ingredient from China being thrown into the interest rate soup. From the recent FT Q&A on the revaluation of the renminbi http://news.ft.com/cms/s/79797f04-fe00-11d...000e2511c8.html "Q: What do you think of the Bernanke notion that the US current account deficit can be explained by a global savings glut? Is there anything wrong with developing economies like China providing a large portion of the pool of savings that finances US consumption and investment? David Gilmore Joseph Stiglitz: The US current account deficit is most directly related to the gap between domestic inves
  11. http://news.ft.com/cms/s/24bd2d9a-0372-11d...000e2511c8.html Ask the expert: UK house prices Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, will answer your questions on interest rates and house prices in a live debate on Thursday August 4 from 1pm BST. Send questions in advance to ask@ft.com. Answers will appear below.
  12. For this terrible piece of journalism: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4076194.stm Which experts are those exactly? Yorkshire Bank and FirstRungNow ...
  13. The problem with debt is primarily the ability to repay it, for which we are - still - in a hell of a better position than a Zambia or a Mozambique. National debt relative to national earnings is the important thing - not total debt stock. Although large UK debt levels in the longer term is worrying admitedly I haven't seen too many people dying on the streets down my way from preventable illness. Come on 0.7 % is hardly going to break your back now is it.
  14. Del Boy, I think it's important you figure out what the real causes are behind you not being able to buy a house - and then aportion blame appropriately. At the moment you're arguments don't seem very coherent - in fact they seem illogical - and you as a result are blaming the wrong people, who happen to be convienient scapegoats. As they said about anti semitism in the 1930s - 'the idiots socialism'. I.e. your problem is the operation of a particular market economy, but you blame a group that has no connection with this because it feels good to your knee jerk prejudices. And what does "bre
  15. I'm not too sure I get the relationship betwen high house prices leading to the assumption that we shouldn't give debt relief to heavily indebted poor countries. Can you explain? Or has this message board now become a place where little englanders can sound off? Surely the very fact that you are concerned about house prices suggest you may have noticed that markets can create unfair social outcomes. And that in order to counteract this governments should intervene. The debt crisis has led to a structural imbalance that leads poor governments paying more in debt relief than on health and educ
  16. On China wage pressures. Don't get your hopes up. In some high skill sectors maybe, but not in low wage sectors. There was an article in the FT yesterday that mentioned that the Chinese government is keeping migration into factories to 15-20 million a year. China has huge resevoirs of cheap labour in rural areas - a substantial number living on less than a $ a day. This Times report is wishful thinking. Where Chinese costs might increase is if the Renmimbi is taken off its dollar peg (where it is placed to make China's export strategy more competitive). This would raise costs and the Ren
  17. Wow there's a quick turn around here There seem to be two sets of arguments in the posts above: 1) Pre recession boom arguments. That there is inflationary pressure from wage increases. But if you then have job losses and an increase in unemployment (even if confined for the time being to the private sector) wouldn't that mean a more competitive labour market (to use that cr*ppy term) and therefore downward pressure on wages? Isn't the whole point of a recession is that it acts to temper out of control labour market demand? And public sector increases of 4% ... that's not that big, althoug
  18. Hi all, A new poster, but have been reading for a while. Quite a few people on this board have talked about the emergence of inflationary pressures, and that this trend will increase and have an upwards impact on interest rates (and hence negatively on the housing market). However I'm not too sure. The looming sources of potential inflationary pressures that could be influential are: a) Increasing oil prices Some form of revaluation of the renminbi (and other E Asian currencies) away - and upwards - from the dollar, therefore increasing the price of manufactured and comsumer inputs)
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