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Jimmy James

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Everything posted by Jimmy James

  1. In London where they've brought in the congestion charge it's meant less polution, safer roads for other roads users and pedestrians, it's made using public transport easier and quicker and it's improved my quality of life no end. And are you another car driver who believes he has a god given right to do what he wants regardless of anyone else? Grow up. You are permitted to use your car based on your staying within the laws of the country and dependent upon your impact on others - this isn't texas. Car's have turned most of our cities into horrible places, the less cars the better.
  2. Road charging is a great idea - it will reduce the number of cars on the road, raise revenue and also put extra pressure on peoples disposable income - making a house price crash more likely. Stop moaning, you're starting to sound like Jeremy Clarkson. Douglas Alexander is a great bloke - very competent and not afraid to take on the road lobby.
  3. We're not going to "go Irish". The reason Ireland has gone stratospheric is that there is a major divergence of economic performance accross the Eurozone and the European Central Bank has been more concerned with dealing with stagnation in Germany and underperformance in France than in the real estate market of a fringe member. The Bank of England has a much less variable geographical spread of economic conditions to oversee and a much closer eye on what is happening in the housing market. It will not let the UK housing market get out of control to the degree it has in Ireland. The BoE does
  4. http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,1769822,00.html "Yes, I feel passionately about the struggle of first-time buyers." "I want to help home buyers." Allsopp is not sure how far she will support the Conservatives. She likes to say she votes "house buyer". "Because potential sellers will be put off sticking their houses on the market, prices will soar as the supply of houses falls. Buyers will be put off, too: "The idea of someone looking at a survey before they have viewed a property, it's nuts, because your average Joe - without being patronising - is completely freaked out by a surve
  5. But your predictions are detached from any form of grounding - being random numbers that history will at some point in the future fulfill. The predictions on houses prices that have been made by the Economist et al is that they will fall during this market cycle, that this is the next stage of the market cycle and that this will be relatively soon. Which is much more specific.
  6. There is always a gap between the point at which a market detaches from its rational fair value to the point at which irrational sentiment can carry it. Guessing how long something irrational can continue by definition is not an exact science and economists - being often very rational machines - usually make the call too early. Markets have strong momentum tendencies, and the housing market in particular has very strong tendencies to allow sentiment to keep it moving upwards. The period of defying gravity will tend to be longer, and less predictable. It's an interesting observation that
  7. Oh yeah - have now slipped down to top 14%, which is still a bunch of crap
  8. Point 1 - The calculation doesn't calculate 'gross income before deductions' it calculates 'gross income after council tax deductions'. This is not the same thing - and your relative position in these results will alter depending on a variety of individual circumstances (like not paying any council tax for example). Point 2 - I see where your coming from here, my answer would be - it doesn't take into account my willingness to take on risk (i.e. how much I am prepared to streach myself to buy a house or whether I will do IO) or any other assets i might have that would help my initial purchase
  9. This calculation is deeply flawed - the only form of deduction from income it calculates is council tax, which can vary hugely from county to county. It should take into account many more outgoings - such as rent, mortgage repayments, transport, debt repayments, ownership of other assets etc.. As I don't pay any council tax (managed to get my landlord to pay it in a nifty bit of negotiating) it says I'm in the top 3% - which sitting here in my torn trainers is absolute crap, my wage is just above the national average.
  10. Lots of ranting about the inflation figures relationship to reality on HPC, here's some interesting analysis to back it up: quote from Hamish Macrae in today's Independent drawing on research from Longview Economics whose website is http://www.longvieweconomics.com/ "Two points here seem to me to be most interesting. One is the distinction between actual spending and discretionary spending. If the price of petrol goes up, you have to pay it. I suppose given time you could switch to a diesel car or buy a smaller one. But in the short run there is nothing much to be done. Ditto taxes. Ditto mor
  11. The additional factor to mention in relation to Magpie's post is inflation. I tend to agree with Magpie that the BOE would probably be happy to see the £ fall - especially given the worrying trade deficit data recently. However it will have to weigh this desire against what this might mean for inflation. Downward movements by sterling means increasing inflationary pressures imported into the economy - particularly if the oil price cranks up any higher. Then the question becomes - how much does the BOE stick to its inflation targetting remit, or abandon it in the 'short term' in order to sa
  12. "Cold Mountain is a house Without beams or walls. The six doors left and right are open The hall is sky blue. The rooms all vacant and vague The east wall beats on the west wall At the center nothing. Borrowers don't bother me In the cold I build a little fire When I'm hungry I boil up some greens. I've got no use for the landlord With his big barn and pasture - He just sets up a prison for himself. Once in he can't get out. Think it over - You know it might happen to you." Han Shan, Tang Period, C8th
  13. Aren't the consequences of a lower pound against the Euro less important than its position in relation to the dollar? Oil is priced in dollars, and hence exchange rate fluctuations have greater inflationary consequences. Has anyone got any details about how the UK-EU trade relationship operates, and therefore what the inflationary impact might be of a falling £? What's the trade balance? What are our main imports? JJ
  14. Hawk and Dove can be used in different contexts, so you need to be sure of what issue it's refering to. But in relation to interest rate policy, 'hawk' means someone who tends to have a preference to raise interest rates (usually for fear of inflation or overheating of the economy) and 'dove' means someone who has the preference to lower interest rates (usually for fear that the economy is underperforming)
  15. This could be interesting. It will make an MPC of eight for the next 2 months - giving the BOE a very strong upper hand on the externals. If the quarterly inflation report looks alarming this would mean less resistance to interest rate rises. Merv could push through a tightening - and given that he wasn't that keen on the last cut this doesn't seem out of the question. Can't remember what Lambert's voting record was like - was he move dovish on interest rate cuts?
  16. "What is to be done? On the regulatory front there should be a tightening up on non-income verified mortgages" "it is recklessly irresponsible of some banks to be lending at six times peoples' incomes in an environment where there are significant downside risks to the economy and bad debts are growing." "There are millions, mainly older people, sitting on substantial property and pension fund assets while younger people are straining to service debt and maintain positive equity. A continued growth in unemployment and a slowdown in income growth could imperil the latter without touching the
  17. In the medium to long term term I'm sure a serious recession would leave me financially better off. If it's bad enough to put me out of a job I would guess it would be bad enough to bring house prices down by 40-60%. As i have no debt, unemployment would mean heading back to parents house, plenty of time to catch up on reading, some study and plenty of country walks, eat into my savings a little, but bounce back into a position to get a job and buy a house at a vastly more reasonable price. There's been far too much flirting with moral hazard by both lenders, government and central bankers
  18. The City may contribute a lot of tax revenue (not as much as they avoid mind you), but that doesn't stop them being a distortion of basic senses of justice and renumeration for a fair days work. See Ezra Pound for more details, (just before the slightly wayward Mussolini broadcasts). Anyways I'm sure being a tax haven brings in a lot of money into Guernsey, it doesn't stop Guernsey being a contemptible bunch of bloodsuckers leeching off the international common man.
  19. You can look down your nose at cabbies, but still realise they represent an important indicator of disposable income levels. God bless em. And so coy about it too. I personally can't believe anyone would throw cash at taking a black cab in London, but then i'm a wide eyed country boy - and tight with it.
  20. You can guarantee this is what Rightmove's press spokesman is saying to any journalist who answer their call. If you want to make sure this story stays alive you need to counter attack with a deconstruction of this, seen some on the pinned board - you just need to cut and paste and distribute. JJ
  21. It's important to distinguish between the Palentine Hill areas (Kensington, Chelsea etc..) and the rest of London. The former are always fairly bomb proof - although I doubt the overall percentage of inflows from total city bonuses is that high in proportion to other investments, by definition city boys should know a bad buy when they see it. However for the rest of London ... the January (i thinK) Nationwide report noted that affordability issues for FTBs were more constrained than for any other area in the UK - 66% of take home pay on mortgage repayments and 7.5 times average FTB income.
  22. I guess this topic is therapy triumphing over analysis, but hey.. Take home pay of 1600 pcm, manage to save 500 - 600 a month, have a fairly immovable 440 in rent, which is bare minimum comfort level for London. That's 560 a month left for spending - which still seems to fly out of the window, despite not having a car, using a bike and never taking public transport, haven't gone to a club for years, haven't bought any new clothes for a couple of years... only extravagance occasional train fare to get out of the big smoke on weekends, second hand books and fruit and veg. Figures of other po
  23. Look, there's nothing wrong with being snobbish about policemen. If you're from the right, your average bobby, although fulfilling an important role, is still of the lower orders - rather like your estate manager. And if you're a man of the left then he's propping up an unacceptable social order through little more than misplaced national loyalties. Either way he's down the pecking order, somewhere near pub landlords, but with less imagination and slightly more power. As for diminished intellect, when was the last time you had an interesting conversation with a policeman? Either your dad's
  24. http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ee7a1314-8e5a-11d...00779e2340.html Good news for inflation in relation to a rising renimbi and therefore increased Chinese export prices "“China has no intention of faster acceleration of foreign exchange reserves,” he said, adding that he believed “the pace of foreign exchange reserves will be reduced”. And more importantly, a signal that China seeks to shift away from savings to consupumtion "Mr Zhou stressed his hope that Chinese people would consume more and have fewer reasons to build savings as reforms kicked in to strengthen Chinese education, healthcare an
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