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Jimmy James

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Everything posted by Jimmy James

  1. There is no reason why Brown can't adjust the inflation target for the BOE. However doing so would give an important signal to the markets that the UK was 'wobbly' on inflation, leading to pressure on sterling. The downwards movement on sterling wouldn't be welcomed by the BoE, and it would also lead to increasing inflationary pressure exported into the UK economy. If Brown was forced to 'readjust' the inflation target it would also be at a time at which the economy and sterling were both looking shaky - thus making doing so even more likely to cause a run on the pound. Every Labour chance
  2. Here is the BBC take: "May sees bumper mortgage lending" http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5097756.stm Seems very CML dependent for the story - but the figures do look like bad news, although this will no doubt be ringing alarm bells with the BoE
  3. Although I can see the parallels between Dubya and Commodus, I'm not too sure that George Bush senior can be compared to Marcus Aurelius.
  4. Well apologies for my rather irate response. With assets of over half a million you may be treading on toes of members in less lucrative positions in postings ranting that you're priced out. Sorry to be rude.
  5. Well why don't you stop crapping on about your unoriginal and badly expressed theories and go and buy a house then? If you had the level of insight you think you do you would have realised everyone thinks you're a tw*t by now.
  6. Are you sure the city is going to have a good year this year? It doesn't look like that so far. Do you have any statistics to back this up? I seem to recall Nationwide saying that affordibility indicators were more streached in London than anywhere else (in terms of wage vs price ratio and percentage of take home pay for first time buyers) I also seem to recall that the main market driver in the past 6 months have been investors - oil money, foreign buyers - who don't tend to be driven by affordability concerns and who would make the market more exposed to an investor driven down turn.
  7. They're are some historical parallels with the C19th where there was a problem of declining investment returns over a long run period. Lots of Marxist theory sprang up as a result. I don't know whether this was preceeded by booms in asset prices and what the role of housing was here. No doubt you could get some hints by reading here. Eric Hobsbawm's Age of Empire is worth looking at, but I'm a bit to lazy to do any summary.
  8. Or anyone who has paid off their initial mortgage buying to invest. A good chunk of BTLs would fall under this category. Would someone who had paid of their mortgage and then decided to MEW fall into CML's definition of an FTB KON?
  9. If you're going to cast an HPC vote, you should vote Lib Dems - below is what Vince Cable wrote a few months ago: "What is to be done? On the regulatory front there should be a tightening up on non-income verified mortgages" "it is recklessly irresponsible of some banks to be lending at six times peoples' incomes in an environment where there are significant downside risks to the economy and bad debts are growing." "There are millions, mainly older people, sitting on substantial property and pension fund assets while younger people are straining to service debt and maintain positive equity
  10. NAEA and CML use different sources or different ways of measuring first time buyers, or both. Looking through the CML data it just doesn't look right given the broader statistical backdrop we have about the market. It's statistics on income multiples for example for 2005 - that just doesn't tie in with the other stats we have on house prices in relation to incomes. What's the reason for this - would KON know? It looks like a rather laborious digging through the back press releases of NAEA and asking what the respective sources of CML and NAEA job to me...
  11. Broadly correct, but with one important error. FTBs have traditionally - and rightly - bought houses through a full repayment mortgage The new market structure - either directly through BTLs buying, or indirectly through FTBs paying rent to BTLs - is funding house prices through interest only. The 'new level' for house prices is thus supported by calculations of monthly yields - not full repayment. Of course this monthly yield has imposed limits - level of profit in relation to total IO mortgage cost and FTB ability to pay - but it does move the whole market to a new higher level. This wa
  12. A thought on the BTL vs FTB debate What is interesting to my mind is that BTLs are competing for essentially the same asset - small low end of the rung properties - but with a whole new range of financial products (particularly IO) and a much more devil may care approach to risk, aided by gearing from existing portfolios. I think this is a permanent 'head start' for BTLs against FTBs - the only way in which it will change is when the over exposure to risk catches up with them. The problem is of course, how many FTBs who have been forced to compete on the same terms - in use of IO and exposu
  13. "While I believe the slight drop in first time buyer sales is not too much to worry about at this stage" Charles Smailes, President, NAEA Ha ha!
  14. Holy Moly it's true!!! http://www.naea.co.uk/uploaded_photos/news...surveyfinal.doc "NAEA agents also reported a slight drop in first time buyer sales in April, which fell in line with the overall sales decrease, as first timers’ share of the market went from 8.9% to 7.9%."
  15. What's the source for 7.9% - shocking stat if true
  16. Yeah the rest of the power point is nonsense - done by John Muellbauer famous anti house price crash pundit - however look at slide number 11 'mortgage payments as % of income' for the really interesting numbers:
  17. 'Affordability' accross the whole of the housing market isn't that illuminating - as it will take the many who bought decades ago and have now paid off their mortgages, and thus drag the figures down. The figure that is much more illuminating too look for 'affordability issues' would be the more stressed sections of the market - in particular FTBs. This is more useful because these are the people who will go to the wall (hence have a bigger impact on stressed selling) and they are also the new money flowing into the market - hence their affordability levels count. This data shows that affo
  18. George Monbiot, tho' way off beam on most issues, hits the target here. A good ding dong happening on the Guardian comment website under the piece as well http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/st...1780885,00.html Second-home owners are among the most selfish people in Britain Every purchase of a second house deprives someone else of a first one. The only answer is to tax them prohibitively George Monbiot Tuesday May 23, 2006 The Guardian What greater source of injustice could there be, that while some people have no home, others have two? Yet the vampire trade in second homes keep
  19. I've provided my statistics and the source, you've quoted opinions with no figures and no source - you need to back them up not me.
  20. And my guess is that you descend from washed up agricultural surplus labour in a gin stall at a market town in the south east at around 1730 who, judging by your manners, had a great grandmother who was probably nobbed by a particularly vicious and foul mothed viking.
  21. Who cares? As long as it makes you angrier HPC should be welcoming this news with open arms - it makes people's ability to pay for higher prices even more constrained. You're rather selfishly going against the common cause.
  22. What evidence do you have to back this up? Last December the Department for Transport published the results of the study it had commissioned into the efficacy of its speed cameras. It found that the number of drivers speeding down the roads where fixed cameras had been installed fell by 70%, and the number exceeding the speed limit by more than 15mph dropped by 91%. As a result, 42% fewer people were killed or seriously injured in those places than were killed or injured on the same stretches before the cameras were erected. The number of deaths fell by more than 100 a year. Speed camara
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