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Jimmy James

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Everything posted by Jimmy James

  1. Just off the wires from Reuters.. ---------------- Reuters: Markets Panic as Pound Stolen Agency Staff Fri Sep 15, 2006 11:23 AM BST The Bank of England is in chaos after the discovery that the pound has been stolen. As the news broke, trading rooms were plunged into chaos, even seasoned campaigners known for grace under pressure being reduced to squawking the day's panicked cry, "What's happening?" TRADER: What's happening? The pound was stolen at 1.30 this afternoon by thieves dressed as cleaners. They drove a white Montego - helicopter police gave chase but despite the shunt the men
  2. Sam, don't worry too much. These feelings are natural when we watch the property market so closely and have invested a lot of emotional energy in hoping that prices fall. I had a depressing walk around my area of London today - not just seeing a few sold signs, but also pondering what kind of society we are becoming and whether I'm entirely comfortable with it anymore. It's good to step back and remember the big picture - things go in cycles and we're near the limits of the current price levels. Unless either the risk new entrants take on reaches extremely unwise levels (and they are already
  3. In today's Indie, says only convincing reason why MPC raised rates was worry about increasing money supply and need to reign in asset prices. If so, shows an interesting shift in the concerns driving rate setting at the BoE http://news.independent.co.uk/business/com...icle1219747.ece "To be sure, there were factors that might lead a prudent central bank to tighten credit. House prices appeared to be on the rise again. Bank lending to financial institutions was ballooning, possibly feeding speculative activity in capital and commodities markets. However, the MPC had not previously emphasise
  4. Surely that's better than paying off no capital at all. How much money do you still owe the bank by the way?
  5. A car is a vehicle that gets you from A to B in nearly all circumstances. An IO is a vehicle that gets you from a specific 'A' to a specific 'B' and will only work if a whole host of other factors (or potential hazards) are in play. In order to arrive successfully at point 'B' you will need to have had these series of other factors work in your favour - otherwise you'll go off the road, or be unable to pay the bill at the finally destination. To build on your very wonky metaphor - as most users of IO mortgages appear not to understand what these external hazards are we may have a lot of acci
  6. This is where the theory falls down somewhat. If inflation is going to increase at a rate fast enough to erode the debt, then governments will raise interest rates to reign this inflation in. This will make it very hard for IO holders to keep up their monthly payments (as IO's are all interest this will mean the repayments required increase proportionally much more than repayment mortgages). This is a self liquidating theory - in order for it to succed in the long term it will wipe out IO users in the short term. People who are basing their decisions on this logic are very deluded indeed.
  7. A new journalist working at the Guardian it seems - but is using HPC as a source http://money.guardian.co.uk/property/first...1842678,00.html
  8. Not if it started to look like Twickenham you wouldn't
  9. And what would you like to have in its place - more places for you to drive your modeo around? Bleedin townie
  10. I think we need to recognise the some rural farming environments do have some sort of 'value' and should be protected. There is a lot of arable on huge land holdings that I wouldn't miss - if the alternative was carefull done. However there are other areas - the South Downs, the West Country and Wales for example - where land holdings tend to be much smaller and the environmental benefit of farming tends to be much higher, as well as having cultural value that is worth preserving. It's easy to debunk the green myth of farming by turning up to a big East Anglain arable field that has just under
  11. In some ways I agree with you munimula - there is going to be a major shift away from the post world war UK model of doing agriculture, although this isn't being driven by the fact that that model was crap at maintaining biodiversity - all to do with CAP reform, declining agricultural prices for commodity crops because of the growth of Brazil and the decline in ag protectionism. Farming's days are numbered, unless of course we may still have a kick back against liberalism in agriculture -from the new EU member states and others. Adam Smith therefore do have a point in that we need to think ab
  12. No way should we become more like Hong Kong - it's full of Chinese people for a start..
  13. "Recent Census data show that the population of England and Wales is some 900,000 lower than previously thought, that there is a surplus of dwellings over households, that this surplus has increased in the past decade, and that this has happened in all regions of England except London (where the balance is unchanged). There are strong reasons to believe that these Census data are more reliable than other data sources suggesting the opposite effect." "House price rises since 1998 cannot reasonably be attributed to constraints on the supply of new houses, because • such house price rises are
  14. Interestingly the CPRE came out with a report debunking Barker here They share in many ways the same analysis of HPC - that the level of price rises cannot be explained by supply and demand imbalances, but the real problem is demand sided by changes in the nature of demand through investment actors. A shortage of housing isn't the problem. Problem is that they aren't really taken seriously becuase they have a clear position of not wanting tarmacing. The additional great argument backing up CPRE's side is that the building and development industry is short termist and slash and burn - knock
  15. Decided that this may get a better response: -------------------- Subject: the NHF report and legal status of advice. Dear Gavin and George, I've seen that you've also been involved in writing the report "England’s Housing Timebomb" I've sent the below comments to David Orr and members of NHF's policy and media teams. Would also be interested to hear your comments. I also wondered what NHF's view on the legal status of the forcasts you give in the report are. On page 6 you state: "The average house price in England will be around £300,000 by 2011." and series of other statements inclu
  16. If I was writing to Halifax or Nationwide then you might have a point that I was being too nice. The problem is that there are lots of - otherwise well meaning - think tanks and housing groups, such as the National Housing Federation or Shelter, who are way off base in terms of their analysis. If you could get movement within these organisations - who have the resources and write about these issues all the time - to look at the demand side problems then that will be much more effective than just slagging them off. There are many different types of actors who can bring about change through di
  17. Letter sent to the director and a good number of National Housing Federation policy and press staff. Will post any replies I get -------- Dear David, I have just been looking at your report and associated press release for your 'England's affordability timebomb report'. As someone who is priced out of the housing market with very little hope of affording a home, I welcome the attention your report gives to the issue. However I feel the manner in which you present the report and the policy recommendations coming from it are unlikely to provide much help - and in fact may harm the cause of
  18. He's in a role that straddles both the DTI and the FCO - previously due to the export promotion side of the job
  19. Moving to the corrupt city hey. I've done the same myself, for much the same reasons - although i'd much prefer to be able to live back in the west country. You'll miss Devon a lot mind, just make sure you try and get out now and again to keep your sanity.
  20. Have you got the weblink to the actual house?
  21. Everyone is very analysis light today and rant heavy - you must have got this one off your chest by now, shouldn't you be looking for numbers to back it up? Below is the Independent article ======= Why the real rate of inflation is twice what the official figures tell us Rises in bills that have to be paid come what may hurt more than rises in luxury items By Philip Thornton, Economics Correspondent Published: 13 June 2006 Official figures later this morning are expected to reveal that inflation rose to 2.1 per cent from 2.0 per cent last month. While this will create huge excitemen
  22. Well as the Buddha would say - 'it's all relative'. Sterling is one currency among many, and many of those other currencies also have plenty of downside risk to them- notably the dollar, but the euro also has a few potential serious faultlines. One of the other problems is that a great deal of East Asian currencies are pegged relative to other currencies - especially the dollar - restraining their appreciation or depreciation. That means when the fed looks to massage the dollar down (or it goes down of its own accord) it tends to mean that free floating currencies such as Sterling and the Eu
  23. Bank of England - goes back a long long way
  24. Lib Dems are now proposing a tax on second homes - which is worth making a noise about. Even if the lib dems don't stand much chance of getting in you will be able to use it to draw attention to the deficiences of the other two parties. Write to your Tory or Labour MP asking why they aren't supporting taxing second homes.
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