thehowler

Which bit are you saying didn't happen?

EU invoked Art 16 and withdrew it under protest. Which bit of that do you object to?

Dave Beans, hope you're prospering. Is it worse, better or about what you were expecting?

You're so far out on a limb I can't see you any more.

Though I begin to fear the UK will do it next week...

Thus far the UK have only threatened to do it. The EU did it. They pressed the button, as you say. Might as well own it. You always mitigate with the EU's stupidity, never with the UK's. In this case the EU have made a terrible blunder and gone further than the UK did.

EU invoked Art 16 for four hours before reversing. Without due process notifying UK and ROI govts. Are you saying that is not true? Are you saying this is a lie? The EU invoked Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol which allows parts of the deal to be unilaterally overridden. In a new regulation, the European Commission stated: "This is justified as a safeguard measure pursuant to Article 16 of that Protocol in order to avert serious societal difficulties due to a lack of supply threatening to disturb the orderly implementation of the vaccination campaigns in the Member States." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55864442

Source for what? You mean that we have a navy? Here's an example of a typical press report on the subject for you, to illustrate how it's done. From The National, 12/12/20. Headline: No-Deal Brexit: UK threatens to send in gunboats to protect fishing waters No govt minister is quoted re this threat in the article. Never mind. First para: FOUR Royal Navy boats are on standby to patrol UK fishing waters in the event of a No-Deal Brexit. That means a RN/MoD source has responded to an inquiry and told a journo that yes, we have enough boats to safeguard the Channel. Confirmed in next para: The Ministry of Defence confirmed the 80-metre vessels would guard British waters from EU trawlers in the event that there is no new agreement on fishing rights after December 31 when transitional arrangements end. And here's the bit about weapons (it being a navy vessel): According to reports the gunboats are armed with machine guns and could be deployed to patrol both the English Channel and Irish Sea. "According to reports" and "could be". You then get supportive hyperbole from other newspaper sources... According to The Times, the UK Government plans to beef-up patrol powers by bringing in legislation to allow the Navy to board foreign vessels and arrest fishermen amid fears of clashes in the English Channel if there is No Deal. The Guardian reported that the four Royal Navy boats readied for fishing surveillance are river patrol vessels which are armed with machine guns – although the newspaper said there was no expectation shots would need to be fired. And there you go, months later and you're still aggrieved about UK sabre rattling with gunboats in the Channel.

Source for your big govt announcement? That doesn't involve the govt saying yes, the Royal Navy safeguard the Channel.

You shouldn't be so hard on the remain establishment.

After reading Gove's letter today - and seeing recent comments from the ROI govt - I begin to think ROI and UK are reconciled to pushing through changes on the protocol. They might even have agreed on this during joint talks after the Commission triggered Art 16, possibly even engaging with the US. Risk is that the UK will go for Art 16 next week and try to force the Commission's hand. The fact the Commission have already activated Art 16 - albeit only for a few hours - makes it much harder for them to present this as a red line. UK seeking to make capital from the Commission's blunder. Hard to believe that MEPs won't even vote to ratify the deal until April. Irish TImes, ref only... The Northern Ireland protocol “does need some changes”, Taoiseach Micheál Martin has said. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/taoiseach-tells-d%C3%A1il-northern-ireland-protocol-needs-some-changes-1.4474989

What big announcement? The RN were asked if they had enough boats to safeguard the Channel and said yes, then the press said Navy gunboats would be patrolling the Channel. The govt responded, yes, we have a navy, if we need them they'll be there. An hour later EU pundits were tweeting about gunboat diplomacy. And it never happened anyway, was only hysteria like so much of the Brexit era.

Every day, I imagine, it's what the navy does. It was widely reported because it was another BS Brexit story. The Navy are tasked with safeguarding our territorial waters and that's what they said they'd do. It was only hostile if you view having a Navy as being hostile. French gunboats patrol the Channel just as we do. The Scot Marine patrol boat turning Irish fishing boats away from Rockall is more dodgy, in my view, but that story hasn't run with the same journo fervour.

There was no sabre rattling or threat. As I remember a journo rang the RN and asked whether they had any/enough boats to guard the Channel and the navy said yes, that's what we do. The journo then ran a story saying the UK were sending gunboats into the Channel - RN ships tend to be armed, it being a navy - and the hysterical remain press ran with it. Nothing happened and you're still outraged about it today.

It was 56 remain in NI. And NI has its own protocol - separate from rest of UK - with joint EU-UK responsibility to minimize any disruption. If the communities ask they will get. That's what the Royal Navy do, IMHAL, I don't know why you're surprised by this, you often bring it up as though it's shocking news. All navies protect their territorial waters, otherwise they wouldn't be navies.

It was more of an...impressionistic manifesto, like I've said for a while. UK biz knew what was coming all last year. The skinny FTA we got was best case. On another note, I see Super Mario is back...saviour of the euro financier brought in to form a "non-political" govt - no elections - to rescue Italy. Five Star might try to block it but a lot of Italian MPs will be losing their seats at the next election in 23 - voting changes - so they'll be reluctant to throw in their jobs. Mario looks like the best bet.

Then Grizzly Dave will be chuckling into his (tariff-subject) bourbon.

I get the impression Frost thinks we will prosper in the long term. Thus far I've seen the eel guy, the cheese guy, the wine guy, Scottish fishermen, fresh shellfish suppliers (shafted), a guy selling posters from ROI, a Belgium beer delivery company and a bike components company, Rattle on musicians on visas (but most states will match our 30 day visa free model, I think), some delivery firms and hauliers. I'm sure there are a lot of other small biz suffering, the UK have made trade/travel/work/settling more difficult/(a PITA compared to previous) with their closest and largest market. But I wouldn't call it a national howl of protest. The GB/NI checks are causing hassle for some supermarkets but away from the Irish Sea I haven't seen a single UK large company voicing anger/complaint. Main problems seem to be shipping - which will only improve/get more efficient - and VAT/additional charges. There were big VAT changes coming across the EU from the summer anyway, I imagine a lot of small UK biz will be better off registering companies inside the bloc. Overall the impact is much lighter than I was expecting, though the covid money is sloshing around and the UK are waiving a lot of stuff currently. With increased travel we're bound to get a lot more public realization/anger too.

And here comes Gove with a wish list for the protocol... Why should the people of NI be disadvantaged? Under the terms of the protocol both parties - UK/EU - agreed to minimize impact on them as much as possible. If both communities agree on the asks very hard to refute the claim that the protocol isn't working. A lot's changed in a week. Harder for the Commission to outright reject this now and demand SPS reg alignment or similar.

Both sides will make blunders - I've lost count of the UK govt errors, partic around comms - but the striking thing about the VDL move was that it was unforced, she could have called in other voices or at least spoken to ROI govt.

Agree, my best guess is that we will be poorer. I don't think short/medium term economic gain was the driver for Frost. He appears to believe that being more nimble, acting faster and with a more UK-centric focus will bring gains over the long term. No, I just have a different impression of its significance.

The Eye's take on the hiccup...

We don't have any trade deals through the EU, they were all rescinded. We've rolled over or negotiated new ones with some countries. We don't have a trade deal with NZ. I think you're talking about dated UK govt projections. It's in the EU's interests to help find a workable solution for the people of NI. They will probably start by kicking the can and extending the grace periods they've already moved on. CPTPP is significant in its signal of intent by the UK govt. It's hard to predict the degree of ensuing divergence from the EU via these small incremental moves but we're on a new path, that's certain. You appear to think that Brexit losses will get so bad and impact so many Brits there will be some kind of reappraisal in the short term. I disagree. Disruption appears far lighter than I'd expected, though I expect it will worsen in the summer when more UK checks are introduced. Most Brits are unaffected in their daily lives and I see no political appetite in the opposition for any EU boosting - quite the opposite, flag-waving. To play down the Commission's error as a hiccup is just embarrassingly partisan.

On matters where both communities agree to a united front it's very hard for the EU - or the UK govt - to refuse to renegotiate the protocol. That will ebb and flow along political lines - the unified approach - but the arrangement has to work for the people of NI, who of course rejected leave in the ref. It would help if the Joint Commission moved with more alacrity. As for the UK, of course Brexit marks a massive shift - a deliberate choice by the UK govt to put up trade barriers with our biggest market and reject its ethos. Change is upon us. CPTPP request yesterday, HK visa applications opening, Cherry sacked from the front bench and the SNP realigning for the election and ref campaign.

But this doesn't. Actions of the Commission have emboldened the UK gov and leaders of the NI communities to demand changes to the NI protocol. I imagine the EU will agree to longer grace periods and the Joint Commission might finally get its act together with the goods at risk list. Gruniad, ref only... The UK government is to seek the lifting of unexpected Brexit controls in Northern Ireland... https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/02/northern-ireland-leaders-to-discuss-brexit-tensions-with-uk-and-eu