thehowler

Not blocked. They can still pitch and sell, just need to abide by individual member state regs. Business trips, professional quals, future ruling on data adequacy - all extra headaches. It's all got a lot harder. But it hasn't just stopped.

My understanding is that the EU are planning to change existing law, which will have the effect of prohibiting some UK shellfish imports. This might classify as future divergence that has an adverse effect on UK industry/trade - maybe our first dispute under the TCA? I can't see why it wouldn't succeed, given EU action after the adoption of the TCA by the Commission will have shut down some regional UK shellfish suppliers. Easy to demonstrate material impact. EU can then revise their move, incur tariffs or pay compensation. Would help if MEPs had ratified the treaty or if any of the myriad committees, sub-committees or arbitration panels had been set up...

Think a third of exports is a bit more than a pinch. I was expecting around 5-10%. Busy times ahead for the ONS.

So when do you think the govt will fall?

Think the DUP voted against Johnson's WA and the TCA. They rejected the NIP long ago. People of NI voted against Brexit. Democracy is a bitter pill. As for the talks this week, imagine they'll kick the can on checks GB-NI. Three or six months - not the two years Gove asked for. And then extend again in six months... Feelings are too raw on both sides for anything more inspired and cooperative than that. But the unionists might still bring it down, they will resist any large market shift to ROI suppliers. And DUP are at risk of losing their base to other unionist groups. The seed potato ban/other more fastidious checks might crash things too. Need an emergency convening of the JC to work through all this. ROI get it. The NIP has to be made to work. NI/border is a special case - it can't be viewed the same as the GB-EU trade border.

Think that happened last year. Indications are that the govt are ready to accept the hit. That said, there are glimmers of hope for better relations around trade. Signs that the UK govt are "negotiating" - Encroyable! - around shellfish. We need talks, allies, spirit of compromise, all that old-fashioned stuff that used to happen between trading partners.

Seems you've dropped the stuff about the UK being stuck with hundreds of millions of redundant doses and what a disaster that is. Glad that's over. As for the other press bits in your post I never refuted any of them so not sure what you're on about about me being wrong.

Are you suggesting the UK stands to lose around a third of its trade with the EU?

More like a profound and punitive change to our trade with our largest market. Set to get worse with UK checks coming in, as DB says. But I wouldn't put money on the govt agreeing to closer alignment in the short term.

And I expect things will get rather worse then...though many firms will have settled in with the changes a little more, opened EU depots, more Irish freight will be going by sea from ROI, more biz will be rerouting stuff to Liverpool etc. With each week it will get easier - though still a huge PITA and many firms closing or shifting tax/salaries into the EU. That was the price. Imposing costly trade barriers overnight.

Claims and counter claims... This does not reflect the data from our French counterparts, which puts the figure at closer to 50%. It is an entirely normal part of freight flows to have empty lorries on the outbound leg from the UK into the EU - this has always been the case. Indeed, estimates suggest that prior to 1 January, around 30% of all outbound lorries were empty. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/response-to-points-raised-in-road-haulage-association-letter-to-the-chancellor-of-the-duchy-of-lancaster

Your quote proves nothing and only confirms what I said - we don't know yet about severe illness from the study. You've explained no numbers. I've read the same reports and as I've said all along my post relates to your alarmist and speculative first post on UK AZ orders. You've said nothing about my point on the 400 million doses of AZ on order for the EU. Where are you going with this?

More of your trolling. We still don't know if the AZ jab helps to reduce severe illness/death from the SA variant, the prof leading the study seems optimistic. ALL of the vaccines - including Pfizer - are reporting limited/reduced efficacy against this variant, with the exception perhaps of Moderna, though I think that's linked to study samples. As for your "the UK will soon have 100 million vaccines with limited effect due to the priority clause" you appear to be engaging in some ghoulish point scoring/sneering. We don't know what the drug company/govt policy will be on producing/remodelling the vaccine as and when variants emerge, we don't know what's in the contracts in terms of obligations and costs related to efficacy performance, and any problems with the AZ jab will cause problems internationally, not just for the UK. That said, you haven't mentioned anything thus far about the hundreds of millions of AZ doses that the EU has on order? Are you similarly claiming that they will be stuck with 400 million doses with "limited effect" or does your logic not stray across the channel?

Agree, you should find a political grouping that best represents that ambit. I'm still puzzled about where the Peoples' Vote momentum went, for a while it looked like a significant political force.

I know a lot of people can't resist banging the Brexit drum but we've left, it's over and we have to make the best of it. There's a lot of May's-deal-would-have-been-better being tweeted in the face of the current NI hassles, well fine, why didn't MPs vote for it then? It was always my preferred route. Answer is it just looked like an awful choice to too many people. And they thought they had all the time in the world. More fool now.

He did, but that was the only way to pass the WA. For better or worse.

Nah, they said the EU was being intransigent right from the start. And they didn't think twice about the City - total hands off. I imagine they went in with base expectation of what we've got now - pretty much a blank slate where the EU get to sell to us their imbalance and we don't have any gains at all. As you say, they were probably hoping the EU would offer more/cave and were surprised they didn't. But I get the impression they don't care too much. I think they would have taken anything just to get out and they're pinning everything on Frost's ideas for medium/long term growth. You and I knew what leaving the SM involved - I think Frost did too. So it has come to pass exactly as predicted.

I heard... UK offered 30 day visa-free for musos and EU said no. That was already on the table - UK still offering it now - and EU said it was of no extra benefit to EU citizens, we want something extra for granting 30 days bloc-wide. That's how they roll. Fair enough. EU proposed 90 days visa-free for all work. Would mean EU citizens could work three months on, three months off, visa free. UK couldn't accept with their ideological priorities on ending freedom of movement, turned it down. Now most member states will revert to 30 days visa free - though it's still a lot more hassle for all concerned. UK tour hauliers will relocate into EU or go bust, I imagine. Brexit came at a high cost.

Yep, when the negotiations started for real after the WA went through it was clear the UK would prioritise breaking links with reg alignment, freedom of movement and ECJ even at the cost of raising trade barriers with our biggest market, likely making us poorer, losing equivalence for the City and raising tensions in NI. Extraordinary, really. But that was the course they chose. And they're sticking with it.

This. From your original post, that I've been responding to all along. Baseless scaremongering - and my inferred subtext that you are upset by the performance of the Commission and seek to deride the UK's efforts. The UK may end up with 300 - 400 million unsellable vaccines. Who would want vaccines on last year coronavirus variant after spring or summer, if currently they are reports they may be less effective on the three new mutations spreading right now. 400 million "unsellable" vaccines. When we all know the situation, the virus and vaccines are all evolving in weeks and days. It's straight trolling. I responded by saying you don't know what's in the contracts regards efficacy or how the drug companies react to new variants etc. You took umbrage.

Your original post was alarmist and unsubstantial in my view so I challenged it. I've added nothing except remarking that you don't know what's in the contracts which I imagine will have a bearing on delivery/investment etc as per your original post. And yes, I do think your posts are relentlessly negative attacks on the UK govt and public bodies - I'm surprised if you disagree.

Sums it up. Both parties now have to look past their own strategic objectives...not easy.

Wrong about what?

Until the vaccine is proven to be ineffective, yes, they'll keep shipping it. While working on updating it for any new variants. What's your point? EDIT - you do know that no vaccine is 100% effective, right?

Moving the checks from Larne might ease things a little. Your no.1 makes sense. Big problem I think is that what might seem logical/inevitable to an EU Commissioner does not feel acceptable to a unionist. If NI shops start buying in chilled meat from ROI then I can see unionist anger and protests.