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thehowler

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Everything posted by thehowler

  1. Reminder, most of this LPF stuff is BS swagger...for the UK because they have to be seen to break clean from the EU, and for the EU because they don't want Brexit to look easy/profitable. There's no equivalence for finance in the FTA - last I heard anyway - and this deal doesn't include services, so isn't there already a colossal trade imbalance in their favour? Are the EU really worried about the UK slashing workers' rights, growing lots of tomatoes or breaking environment targets? Is that it? It seems so crass.
  2. Of course, as long as it works both ways. It does seem a little odd that the minimum wage in Slovakia is less than half the UK minimum wage, when making a big fuss about the threat of the UK lowering workers rights/earnings/benefits etc. Who will sit in judgement on these things?
  3. No, it's not the EU's LPF. Your devotion shows. It's about common standards going forward. Either side can choose to match or face the consequences. We're already ahead of the EU in many areas. A LPF cuts both ways and both sides will have the right to impose sanctions.
  4. Of course, I'm not putting it up as a Brexit miracle, just something they'll pursue. Not quick and easy. Maybe services deferred. India want big changes on immigration and have already said that would be a precondition - suspect that's been a problem for Oz. Have to start batting for Blighty, IMHAL...just a little.
  5. Us and the Commission (the Europeans). Should know more in a day or two if it doesn't blow up.
  6. Mexico rollover deal just announced, new trade talks to start in 21. Truss laying it on thick on CPTPP... “It’s another really important stepping stone toward the UK joining CPTPP, and I look forward to making our application to do just that early next year,” Truss said. Reuters, ref only, https://uk.reuters.com/article/britain-mexico-trade/britain-and-mexico-agree-deal-on-post-brexit-trade-idUKL1N2IV13M
  7. That's an old rant. Raab's in India this week, Johnson goes in January - first state visit post-transition? Can see them offering a lot of easing on immigration. It might even work, if only Johnson was more diligent - but he's not, already made an India gaffe this week, confusing domestic protests with border issues. Embarrassing.
  8. The President of the European Commission doesn't think we're Europeans! Or just a slip?
  9. Independent arbitration. I think most leavers would settle for that. Looks as though that's what we'll be getting, either side can impose tariffs or walk if the panel finds they've transgressed.
  10. I think most of them would be satisfied with no ECJ final say. It all gets rather abstract after that.
  11. The India visit in January is significant, I think, there are signs that the UK govt wants the Enhanced Trade Partnership to evolve into a FTA. Chimes with continuing drift away from China. Johnson will chase CPTPP too. There was clearly no plan of any kind for after the vote - the ERG economic visions have always been nonsense. The only plan was to win the vote and get out, no point pretending otherwise. Suspect it's only this year that the UK govt have started to piece together a strategy for when we leave wider EU regs. US deal is years away and they obviously see the EU deal as
  12. UK govt will tell the Scots to wait and see how it goes under new terms. Can's kicked for years with a FTA.
  13. Yes, it was grudgingly, for economic reasons and ease of travel. But no, I didn't have the ideology of a Brexiter, as you perceive it, I think. I was a big fan of FOM and am of immigration/diversity. As I argued quite recently, I believe it was poor governance on issues like improving public services that contributed to the leave win. I've also said that I thought the EU needs to evolve and Brexit might be part of that evolution. The vote was inevitable, the remain defeat wasn't, in my view. With the result so close, if remain had won I imagine Brit politicians would have done a
  14. Odds on a deal, but if they don't agree the text by end of this week we might get a few weeks/month of no deal in Jan. An implementation, as you said, but with a deal agreed. MEPs not sounding happy about having to pass a FTA on the 28th Dec. Predictions for 21 onwards... January will be very bumpy either way, port chaos headlines, food prices up a few percent, more air freight. Surge of consumer spending from spring will outweigh effect of rise in unemployment. The recovery from covid will mask a lot of the Brexit disruption, in my view. 2022/23 will be more of a test, I think.
  15. Andrew Duff has been musing on this idea, kicked back to 2025. But the UK govt would never agree to pay anything in.
  16. I understand your view, just think we have a different view on what compromises should have been made to avoid the threat of no deal we face now (though the language from both parties today is encouraging). In some ways I don't think you can ever go against principle - especially with so many unknowns - and I understand why some remainers resisted chasing after other solutions. Regards the CU, I saw this tweet from Lamb today saying it was very close...it was such a febrile time.
  17. More talks, both sides ready to "go the extra mile"... Good news, for me anyway.
  18. Could well be right...or might be sooner...talk leaking of return to "due process" softening of the ratchet.
  19. No word out of the talks since yesterday afternoon, VDL call around 11 island time. Johnson presser this afternoon. Could still go either way. Wonder if we'll ever find out what the real terms of a LPF were on offer.
  20. Results matter. In my view we might have swerved Johnson and the threat of no deal we face now and we didn't. I get that you feel differently and I don't think my view has any moral superiority.
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