thehowler

Well, if we get an announcement tonight or tomorrow morning, at least we can say this was one of the easiest new trade deals in history. Only took nine months.

Let's see how it works for NI.

I think it'll ebb. But I'm conscious that I'd like it to.

You know how it'll be, Dave, negotiations will start on some kind of trusted trader scheme. Permanent negotiations from now on.

Is that the one headed by Major Ed Davey?

I think they'll run less through the Channel ports. More air freight. Move away from EU hubs for outside suppliers. Less ROI freight. Times a changing.

Sorry, IMHAL, detail on the FTA wasn't included in the campaign material five years ago.

The shock of the new, Dave. But Brexit ref culture war is over if/when they sign the FTA. Starmer likely to back it. Onwards.

The best chance of it being a good deal is if everyone hates it.

Will France reject the cuts in their quotas and go for a standoff? I imagine they're thinking talks would roll on from 1st Jan, with no deal hassles chivvying the Brits - or the UK govt cracks after a few months and agrees to all terms. Both outcomes seem fanciful to me. Don't think Barnier retires until end of the month, after that France would lose the French lead negotiator and former French fisheries minister. Guess member states would want some form of review. Johnson would be under pressure to keep negotiations open but the govt would also have to get into no deal legislation/crisis mana

The travel ban stuff is moot given the entire UK is likely to go to tier 4 from Boxing Day. Daily figures are too high. Deal by Christmas Eve or they can't draft it for provisional approval by Jan 1st - and a few EU parliaments need to mandate govt sign off. Latest text said to be 2000 pages.

Langoustine shortages...

It's a bit of a sideshow right now, don't you agree? Are Frost and Barnier going to pop up tomorrow and say "hey, everyone, we got a deal." Maybe in the last days of the year.

Yeah, many MEPs are furious. They're furious about the Brexit deal lateness too. We shall see.

Of course. And now we're dealing with something much more severe than any projected Brexit scenario. Let's hope it only lasts a few days.

Do you think the EU should be signing a closer investment deal with China, with no labour controls? Signals of intent.

Land bridge for the ROI must be shut too. Dress rehearsal.

Yep, screw Brexit, France can just unilaterally stop all accompanied trade without ref to the European Commission or any other body.

Member states have already indicated they'll just bring it in as provisional and the EP can vote on it later. Don't think there's any legal requirement for the EC to give the EP a veto. Or do you think the EP are going to stand their ground? Stand their ground on China labour conditions too? Sure thang.

Half a million Hong Kong Brit citizens taking up residence over next year or two might be quite vocal about it. Johnson's first state visit after transition to India - just pulled out of closer trade with China. Royal Navy in South China Sea to support Oz/Japan. UK govt making moves to cut links faster with Huawei, even after it was clear Trump's out. What will Biden make of EU signing closer trade agreement with China weeks before he takes office?

Aye, until we see the deal it's all BS. And there's no pretence of serious scrutiny in the remaining timeframe. I've always thought that if the deal passes it will be far wider in scope than has been leaked. But it's lose lose for the Brit govt, both on the myth of recovering "total" sovereignty and the economic hit. I've come to think of Brexit as an amputation - result of some hasty and ill-thought out act of bravado. The deal/no deal is still at the bleeding stump stage, we can go for cauterization of a FTA (best case) or just let it bleed and hope it stops, no deal. It'

Yep, means tariff costs and supply hassles. But it's not about the money, is it.

Still plenty of action at the year end. The EU said to be very close to signing a broad investment deal with China, opening up companies and markets, for the Chinese it means greater access to EU energy and high tech. The deal contains no legal restrictions on China using forced labour. It chimes with my view that the UK is moving away from closer ties with China and will court India, Korea, Japan, Oz and the US. Puts the UK FTA talks in perspective. Politico eu for ref only... Negotiators from Brussels and Beijing have made a breakthrough on access to each other's mar

It's almost at the big reveal, IMHAL. If the EU stick with their ask on huge share of our fish, forever or they trash the FTA, and their hundreds of EU billions being exempt from state aid, when ours won't be, then it's curtains down on no deal. If they find a way to fudge the numbers the show goes on.

Yep, all up for negotiation and arbitration in case of dispute. Easier when you're not divorcing.