Report Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads. in House prices and the economy Posted December 31, 2020 Don't think most Brits will notice much of a change over 2021...less choice, slightly higher costs, more hassle to travel. And occasional, horrible and unexpected aftershocks. Things we took for granted gone. Little EU pleasures lost. Small companies that have found a niche selling into the EU will likely shrink/desist. JiT will change/end, supply chains too, but we should get some new importers. Maybe Africa will kick in a bit more? Suspect the UK will test the divergence route pretty quickly with other FTAs and an approach to the CPTPP - though that's far from straightforward. I think they'll push hard for an India deal. And we'll get to see how investment into the UK fares - think we'll get a sense of whether the UK is waving or drowning by end of 21/early 22. I don't think the UK nations will split, UK govt will say give us a year or two to try the deal out. Watching the EU sign with CCP today makes me ponder the post-Trump geopolitical drift. Merkel wanted the completion and EU clearly wanted to send a message of intent - seven years of negotiations but they pick now, just weeks before Biden takes office to sign first draft off. It opens a door for Johnson with Biden. I understand that the EU wants to position itself as the 3rd global superpower, but I think to do that they're going to need a military element if they want autonomy from the US. In a sense I see this as a positive, the EU must evolve. And with us gone they seem to be making progress - don't think we would have agreed to the covid fund or the CCP move today and I don't think we would ever back an EU military component. Next big spat/test with EU will come when Johnson wants to sign off on new regs in a FTA/trade area, maybe towards end of 21. And I see the US pushing the anti-China theme, still "America First" - I think Johnson will work to play along with this. New chances, new dangers for the UK.