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thehowler

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Posts posted by thehowler

  1. Don't think most Brits will notice much of a change over 2021...less choice, slightly higher costs, more hassle to travel.

    And occasional, horrible and unexpected aftershocks. Things we took for granted gone. Little EU pleasures lost.

    Small companies that have found a niche selling into the EU will likely shrink/desist. JiT will change/end, supply chains too, but we should get some new importers. Maybe Africa will kick in a bit more?

    Suspect the UK will test the divergence route pretty quickly with other FTAs and an approach to the CPTPP - though that's far from straightforward. I think they'll push hard for an India deal. And we'll get to see how investment into the UK fares - think we'll get a sense of whether the UK is waving or drowning by end of 21/early 22.

    I don't think the UK nations will split, UK govt will say give us a year or two to try the deal out.

    Watching the EU sign with CCP today makes me ponder the post-Trump geopolitical drift. Merkel wanted the completion and EU clearly wanted to send a message of intent - seven years of negotiations but they pick now, just weeks before Biden takes office to sign first draft off. It opens a door for Johnson with Biden.

    I understand that the EU wants to position itself as the 3rd global superpower, but I think to do that they're going to need a military element if they want autonomy from the US.

    In a sense I see this as a positive, the EU must evolve. And with us gone they seem to be making progress - don't think we would have agreed to the covid fund or the CCP move today and I don't think we would ever back an EU military component.

    Next big spat/test with EU will come when Johnson wants to sign off on new regs in a FTA/trade area, maybe towards end of 21.

    And I see the US pushing the anti-China theme, still "America First" - I think Johnson will work to play along with this.

    New chances, new dangers for the UK.

  2.  

    Yes, it's a gamble. But the facts are that we have left and there is a very real risk of cries of betrayal form Labour voters too if they vote against. I should think that most remainers would settle for a closer or much closer relationship with the EU than the current deal or May's almost identical deal.

    Initially, after the ref, I was for BRINO, but that was taken off the table by May. If the plan is to get us to a near BRINO deal then I am on board. The only other hope was that a no-deal would happen to let people see the effects of Brexit first hand...that did not come to pass. So an insider job is the only route left.

    Look at it from the EU's perspective. The framework allows them the luxury to be kind to the government of their choosing...to play good cop and offer rewards with a sympathetic one and play hard ball with one that is anti-EU. It's a deal taylor made to take advantage of our divisions and electoral system....to get us closer. Starmer will see the possibilities and hopefully avoid being branded anti Brexit whilst keeping remianers on side.

    There was no plan for leave, there never was. Labour's plans - if there were any - have come to nothing and Starmer just gave a Gruniad interview where he said he doesn't want to touch the deal at the next GE. In fact, he said he will try "to make this deal work."

    Maybe we should start taking him at face value instead of projecting desired subjective outcomes.

    The "framework" of the deal allows both sides to negotiate on future choices, towards a closer or more diverged relationship There's no subtle, hidden mechanism to coax us back in. There are just very overt costs, tariff threats and more hassles (around energy access for example) if we decide to diverge further, and that was the price that the UK govt were willing to accept for this bare bones deal.

    Trade and business will evolve to make the best of it - already is, see the Aldi announcement tonight - and time will tell if a political group can gain ground on a declared pro-EU agenda. But that's not the message from Labour tonight.

    ref only...

    Aldi is boosting its support for British suppliers by announcing it aims to spend £3.5bn more on UK-produced food and drink annually within the next five years.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/30/aldi-spend-uk-produced-food-drink

     

  3.  

    See, you where right after all........(virtually) everyone is a Brexiteer now. We all want to excercise our soverign right to trade with our neighbours in the best way possible. Brexit means Brexit and Brexit means something different to every Brexiteer. Let democracy continue to shape what Brexit turns out to be. 

    A difficult day for Labour and a difficult GE to come. Boundary changes looming, big Tory majority, peak SNP, makes it hard for them to get the numbers.

    Progressive alliance still possible but I think it would have to be pro-EU/internationalist. That might be the agenda, but if so I feel today was a miscalculation, just my take.

    Really not sure what to make of Starmer. I would have gone for Lisa Nandy. She voted for the deal but I like the way she summed up the choice - this deal or chaos and then go on to build stronger alliances. That cuts through better than the Starmer speech earlier, I feel.

    All to play for in the years ahead.

     

     

  4.  

    Same principles apply.

    I am not too sure about that. Labour + SNP + LibDems a few others may swing it. 

    Plus, If Starmer did oppose it - then what would be his counter offer? He does not really have one that would not instantly be shot down as not Brexit or against the ref result.

    For the SNP it's much easier, they have the fact that the Scots voted to stay in. The LibDems also are taking a consistent line.

    No - the only route available to Labour is to fight for a better relationship when the cracks start to appear.

    Speculation. 

    Tough regardless of what position you take. Maybe a lost cause. Let the Scots go....it is a casualty of Brexit.

    As explained above.

    ERG are backing it. Are you saying you think 40 Tories are going to oppose it?

    Don't see how Starmer can win a GE without some MPs in Scotland - or a deal with the SNP.

  5.  

    Aye...there is an art to war.

    This isn't war, it's politics. War goes further.

    The deal will pass, there's no chance of no deal. All voters know that Starmer thinks the deal is terrible, he might as well be seen to stick to his self-proclaimed principles and avoid being branded a realpolitik hypocrite.

    Playing the snake in the grass and sniping at a deal he voted for will not win him the next GE.

    He risks further splits in his party and enraging Scotland. And he needs more votes from Scotland, partic, with the boundary changes looming.

    In my view his best strategy would be to say that Labour can't back the deal and it's for the govt to fix if the bill is defeated (which it won't be anyway). If the country then grows poorer/suffers under the deal Starmer will be well-placed to pick up aggrieved voters.

  6.  

    You confuse what I wanted to happen with what I thought would happen.

    I agree that learning to diverge is going to be a long learning process. The pendulum may swing too far one way on occasion, but common sense tells me that we will revert back into the orbit of the EU.    

    Of course he will back it, with the caveats he has given. That will give him the ammo to fight for the pendulum to swing. Anyone taken in by the notion that Brexit and it's aftermath will not feature in any future election is kidding themselves. Of course it will not be painted that way, why pour salt on  wound when you can put a gert big plaster on it.

    He should vote against it if he hates the deal. No chance of no deal anyway.

    Nothing to gain playing the Tory game. And if it doesn't work out he made the right choice.

  7.  

    Oh come off it. You know that if he was to give any hint of notion that the referendum had been overturned in any way then he would be handing a hatchet to the opposition. This will be a crab like crawl back into the orbit of the EU. 

    Remember, he also said that he reluctantly endorsed the deal but also said that it did not deliver what Brexit promised. You can take that anyway you want, but full on ERG it aint.

    Have you called it right thus far? Poorer, likely, but it's as much an exercise in learning how to diverge as it is to integrate.

    Starmer doesn't have to back the deal. Deal will pass anyway.

    He wants to back it.

  8.  

    Starmer is on a sticky wicket if he fights Brexit head-on. My guess is that he will focus on a sector by sector strategy that has been failed by Brexit to bring us into closer alignment. It will be difficult to argue with that. It's going to be a slow and protracted process to minimise the damage..... but that is all it will ever be. Full ERG? don't think so.

    So he's taking a covert approach to rejoining? Sector by sector.

    Quote, "Europe/Brexit will play no part in the next election campaign."

    Accept it, IMHAL. Starmer isn't fighting Brexit. Head-on or otherwise.

     

  9. Starmer goes full ERG.

    Not sure this is wise. But he clearly feels there's no serious drift to any rejoin momentum.

    Gruniad, ref only...

    Starmer said he could not envisage Europe or Brexit playing any part in the election campaign of 2024 – or featuring on any Labour MPs’ election leaflets – despite the opportunity for a review of the treaty in 2024, which is spelled out in the current deal.

    “It’s pretty unlikely. The focus will be on Britain and on Britain’s role in the world,” he said. “Will the renegotiation of the treaty be central to the manifesto? No.

    “If we are still arguing in 2024 about what has gone in these past four years, we’re facing the wrong way as far as I’m concerned.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/29/labour-will-not-seek-major-changes-to-uks-relationship-with-eu-keir-starmer

     

  10.  

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55464564

    China and EU 'on verge' of major investment deal

    Sounds like the EU have done it. Well done EU!

    We have a roll-over deal with Turkey that gives us almost as much as we had with the EU to bragg about. That is what I call progress when you are walking up a down escalator :)

     

     

    Good news for German car companies.

    Bad timing for Biden.

    Waiting to see if the EU got the labour commitments, France have said they'll veto if not.

  11.  

    It's an illusion. If it's activated then there is a two year negotiation period to replace it with something else that avoids a border, so in practice no matter what happens, Northern Ireland is remaining aligned with the EU.

    From memory, there is no guarantee that the border will be kept open. The JC just makes best recommendations to the UK and EU.

    Your illusion is an assumption.

  12.  

    Yes, BRINO.

    Any variation from EU standards will result in tariffs. At our insistence there will be no courts involved so we have not option but to comply immediately.

    ERG are going to be pissed, if they can gather enough braincells to figure it out.

    Yep, BRINO except no ECJ, no SM access, no CU, no FOM, new immigration system and out of the CFP in five years.

    Arbitration committee process rules on any disputes - no lightning tariffs, no immediate compliance. And any dispute has to show there's a significant looming competitive/economic disadvantage, so in practice likely that any minor divergence won't result in action.

    ERG will lap it up.

  13.  

    How the hell am I supposed to know which pejoratives you use for publications? 

    Fair enough, was a running gag with IMHAL.

    Anyway, any ERG flap over fish is fishy, if you ask me, yes we face tariffs if we tell the EU to sling their hook in '26 but we'd get immediate tariffs under no deal (without the proposed 25% increase in what we can take/sell tariff free).

    ERG got their big asks.

  14.  

    The New European I wouldn't class as Little Englander - to me that would be the DE. Maybe you should provide a list of acceptable publications that meet your personal seal of approval. 

     

    Well, let's start with anything that isn't the DE or the Little Englander, as per my original post.

    Outside these two shameless rags, do you have a source or journalist briefing that suggests the ERG are about to rebel?

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