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thehowler

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Everything posted by thehowler

  1. Don't think most Brits will notice much of a change over 2021...less choice, slightly higher costs, more hassle to travel. And occasional, horrible and unexpected aftershocks. Things we took for granted gone. Little EU pleasures lost. Small companies that have found a niche selling into the EU will likely shrink/desist. JiT will change/end, supply chains too, but we should get some new importers. Maybe Africa will kick in a bit more? Suspect the UK will test the divergence route pretty quickly with other FTAs and an approach to the CPTPP - though that's far from straightforward.
  2. There was no plan for leave, there never was. Labour's plans - if there were any - have come to nothing and Starmer just gave a Gruniad interview where he said he doesn't want to touch the deal at the next GE. In fact, he said he will try "to make this deal work." Maybe we should start taking him at face value instead of projecting desired subjective outcomes. The "framework" of the deal allows both sides to negotiate on future choices, towards a closer or more diverged relationship There's no subtle, hidden mechanism to coax us back in. There are just very overt costs, tariff threat
  3. A difficult day for Labour and a difficult GE to come. Boundary changes looming, big Tory majority, peak SNP, makes it hard for them to get the numbers. Progressive alliance still possible but I think it would have to be pro-EU/internationalist. That might be the agenda, but if so I feel today was a miscalculation, just my take. Really not sure what to make of Starmer. I would have gone for Lisa Nandy. She voted for the deal but I like the way she summed up the choice - this deal or chaos and then go on to build stronger alliances. That cuts through better than the Starmer speech ear
  4. Corbs says no, Starmer says yes. Vote passes 521 to 73. Would have passed 321 to 273 if Starmer had opposed it. But, yes, choppy waters.
  5. ERG are backing it. Are you saying you think 40 Tories are going to oppose it? Don't see how Starmer can win a GE without some MPs in Scotland - or a deal with the SNP.
  6. Aye, they're not looking forward to 2024, they're just excited about next week.
  7. And she read the texts. Not convinced the current executive get round to it.
  8. May calls Starmer out...if you wanted a better deal then why didn't you vote for mine in 2019? Oh yeah.
  9. This isn't war, it's politics. War goes further. The deal will pass, there's no chance of no deal. All voters know that Starmer thinks the deal is terrible, he might as well be seen to stick to his self-proclaimed principles and avoid being branded a realpolitik hypocrite. Playing the snake in the grass and sniping at a deal he voted for will not win him the next GE. He risks further splits in his party and enraging Scotland. And he needs more votes from Scotland, partic, with the boundary changes looming. In my view his best strategy would be to say that Labour can't back
  10. He should vote against it if he hates the deal. No chance of no deal anyway. Nothing to gain playing the Tory game. And if it doesn't work out he made the right choice.
  11. Have you called it right thus far? Poorer, likely, but it's as much an exercise in learning how to diverge as it is to integrate. Starmer doesn't have to back the deal. Deal will pass anyway. He wants to back it.
  12. It's the only show in town. Unless you want to keep digging your escape tunnels to nowhere.
  13. Of course. As ever. But "Brexit" is in the past. I think that's what Labour are saying.
  14. So he's taking a covert approach to rejoining? Sector by sector. Quote, "Europe/Brexit will play no part in the next election campaign." Accept it, IMHAL. Starmer isn't fighting Brexit. Head-on or otherwise.
  15. Starmer goes full ERG. Not sure this is wise. But he clearly feels there's no serious drift to any rejoin momentum. Gruniad, ref only... Starmer said he could not envisage Europe or Brexit playing any part in the election campaign of 2024 – or featuring on any Labour MPs’ election leaflets – despite the opportunity for a review of the treaty in 2024, which is spelled out in the current deal. “It’s pretty unlikely. The focus will be on Britain and on Britain’s role in the world,” he said. “Will the renegotiation of the treaty be central to the manifesto? No. “If we are
  16. Are you saying return to the protocol provisions is default if no agreement? I don't think it is.
  17. Good news for German car companies. Bad timing for Biden. Waiting to see if the EU got the labour commitments, France have said they'll veto if not.
  18. From memory, there is no guarantee that the border will be kept open. The JC just makes best recommendations to the UK and EU. Your illusion is an assumption.
  19. Switch to fully driverless cities infrastructure is many decades away. AI pipedream for now.
  20. The deal gets us out of the immediate political and trading crisis at the end of transition (not discounting the imminent border/beurocratic hassles. It's an end to the beginning. Brexit is over. We now begin negotiations about the kind of relationship the UK and EU are going to have moving forward, with new structures that will evolve to suit circumstance.
  21. Yep, BRINO except no ECJ, no SM access, no CU, no FOM, new immigration system and out of the CFP in five years. Arbitration committee process rules on any disputes - no lightning tariffs, no immediate compliance. And any dispute has to show there's a significant looming competitive/economic disadvantage, so in practice likely that any minor divergence won't result in action. ERG will lap it up.
  22. From December 15th... The Little Englander? "It certainly has a ring of truth about it."
  23. Fair enough, was a running gag with IMHAL. Anyway, any ERG flap over fish is fishy, if you ask me, yes we face tariffs if we tell the EU to sling their hook in '26 but we'd get immediate tariffs under no deal (without the proposed 25% increase in what we can take/sell tariff free). ERG got their big asks.
  24. Well, let's start with anything that isn't the DE or the Little Englander, as per my original post. Outside these two shameless rags, do you have a source or journalist briefing that suggests the ERG are about to rebel?
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