ianbeale
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Posts posted by ianbeale
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home purchase no. 126000 NSA same as July 06
home purchase no. 115000 SA 4% lower than July 06
this is bad news - no hpc - move along now,nothing to see here- hpi marches on
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Nice spot
SA figures do concern me somewhat.
I think they have some value but the headline figure should be the Non SA Figure - look forward to the next land reg report going negative - that is non SA
the fact remains - prices fell in august - not that you will see that in the media
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http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Aug_2007.pdf
note this is seasonaly adjusted figure to give 0.6 MoM
non seasonaly adjusted the av price fell from 184270 - 183898 = 372 fall = -0.2 MoM
from report
1 Actual average house prices are lower even though the monthly index shows a rise because of seasonal adjustment. It
reflects that prices in August did not fall as much as we would have expected them to given the seasonal pattern in prices.
so there you have it
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http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Aug_2007.pdf
note this is seasonaly adjusted figure to give 0.6 MoM
non seasonaly adjusted the av price fell from 184270 - 183898 = 372 fall = -0.2 MoM
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Oh no, now I'm worried.
Should I calculate my yield using the 'present value' of £90,000 or using the purchase price of £15,500. With the former, my yield is a paltry 4.5%. With the latter it is a more respectable 33%.
*** Biting my nails worrying what my yield is ***
However, if my BTL is owned outright I hope it will provide the equivalent of a week's pay when I retire. I just need to know what my yield is. I didn't even know that I had one till today!
GG
this is what we are up against comrades
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Surely that volume data is MASSIVELY significant.
The properties sold at the lower end (i.e. 200k or less) ALL show a massive decrease in volume, even in London.
What does this mean?
Easy: prices are rising on the back of relatively small volumes of high value property.
The rest of the market is about to go into free-fall.
maybe there arnt any properties left in this price bracket because theyve gone up so much?
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No these figures relate to completions notified to LR in July
Apparently 70% are notified within 1 month of completion, 90% within 2 months 95% within 3 months and after that it is statistically irrelevant.
exactly "from completion" is the key - it takes 2/3 months from someone walking through the door with the EA to actually getting the keys in their hands
add yor figures on to this date and you are looking at properties that were "sale agreed" stc in april/may (4 month lag)
nationwide should provide a better up to date indication (2 month lag) out tommorrow at 0700
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=54329
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Nah, it's apples to apples remember!
i dont buy this
buy a rundown property cheap - do a 20 k make over and sell it on - that is 20 k real added value that was not reflected in the original prurchase price
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july av price 181460
june av price 181039
increase 421
true MoM = (421/181039)*100
true MOM = 0.23%
how this rounds up to 0.1 I dont know - should be 0.0% - e mail sent to land reg asking for explanation
rewind - should be MoM+0.2 oops - silly me
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july av price 181460
june av price 181039
increase 421
true MoM = (421/181039)*100
true MOM = 0.23%
how this rounds up to 0.1 I dont know - should be 0.0% - e mail sent to land reg asking for explanation
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this is a real negative figure when you strip out the home improvements factor that generally adds value to each property sold using land reg methodology - sub RPI anyway
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Current index 220.6
Average price £181,460
Monthly change 0.1%
Annual change 8.8%
http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/libr...ts/hpir0807.pdf
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My Stab at this one
NE negative
NW negative
SE positive
SW negative
London positive
east negative
EM negative
WM negative
Wales negative
Yorkshire negative
overall MoM +0.1
Express headline 30/8 "14bn city bonuses...House prices continue to soar...."
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I infer from your reply that the Land Registry figures are out today?
1100 tick tock tick tock
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1 hour 15 minutes to go. 6 negative--4 positive?
RB this thread is for tommorrows nationwide which i believe are more widely reported in the sheeple media - having said that i am licking my lips at the land reg figs as they are the most reliable though i believe they have more lag than nationwide and will therefore be later to turn - fingers crossed though.
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the lovely merryn
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just giving this thread a final trawl thru the front page
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http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articlenew...XML&src=rss
The number of mortgages approved for home purchase in Britain fell 0.7 percent in July from a year earlier to 66,965, the British Bankers' Association said on Tuesday, in a sign the housing market may be coming off the boil.
But the BBA said the value of mortgage approvals rose 12 percent on the same month last year and left last month's rise in net underlying mortgage lending unrevised at a robust 5.7 billion pounds
not much of a collapse yet - but a start
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amazing the level of pessimism on this thread - surely (assuming these figs are not fudged) this indices must go red MoM if all the reports of falling prices on here are true
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for all those hpcers who want to see waht bar food is comming upin stash this in your favourites
http://www.todayfx.com/calendar.html?gclid...CFRnHEAodd1JYPA
keep the faith IB
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There’s a lot of new building going on in Bradley Stoke, North Bristol at the moment. All the properties on one development I’m watching sold pretty quick about 18-12 months ago. Things are getting interesting now as they start to be sold again.
This house:
http://www.teamprop.co.uk/prop.asp?pref=AW...||0||1|BS32||10
Has just gone on the market for £279.950.
It was originally bought on the 17th Feb 2006 for £290,000. If it goes for asking that’s a nominal fall of 3.5% in 18 months. If it only goes for 95% of asking (£265,952) that’s a fall of 8.3% and getting dangerously close to the stamp duty threshold.
Looking the in windows, the place has been vacated already.
v vulnerable to a 250k cash buyer i would say
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This one has been teetering on the edge - will we finally see some red on the board - falls have been reported by market watchers here for some months now - surely the lag has washed through by now!!!
my call 0.2 Negative
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The Fed is a private bank run for private profit, so why is this surprising?
surprising no - illegal yes
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How many fools will accept the HIP as an in depth survey and then only go for a cheap drive by valuation only, then learn at a later date there are a few structural problems.
Every buyer should always go for a full structural survey and if a very old property a civil engineers report as well.
alternatively diy
http://www.whatprice.co.uk/financial/housi...ket/survey.html
Repossession Rate In West Country Double National Average
in House prices and the economy
Posted
i live in plymouth - whilst prices have stabilised over the past few months, after stellar incraeses - they are not really falling - but the pay down here is **** - 20k is considered a decent wage and you are looking at 200k for a 3 bed semi estate house - it is a nice place to live though and a fair bit of regeneration going on too...