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ianbeale

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Posts posted by ianbeale

  1. already planning for the future?

    lets just wait and see if there is a drop in house prices enough to make houses affordable

    i am slightly more realistic about what may be achieved in GC2 a sthings stand - i expect a fall of 10-20% in real terms which will be attributed to the tighter lending conditions - if the economy goes tits up though then we can have a real party 30-40% (if you still have a job that is)

  2. New build apartment block in Marine Parade, Dawlish, South Devon, EX7 9EX. Was formerly the Great Cliff hotel, which was demolished due to subsidence or some such to make way for this monstrosity, which stands over 1 storey higher.

    Right beside the main London - Plymouth railway, other desirable features include waves breaking over the second floor balcony when the moon and sun line up.

    Several to my knowledge (about 25-30 in all) have not been occupied, although the developer no longer carries them on its website (MIDAS HOMES). Original brochure prices on completion in 2006 were not far short of £250k.

    Rightmove currently has 4 - 2 bedroom lots for sale, asking between £235k and £249.5k. This seems to tie up with Nethouseprices which produces value around the £230k - £240k mark during the back end of 2006, which is a hell of a lot for the area, espcially given the way the units are squeezed in and the other desirable features mentioned.

    However Rightmove also has 3 - 2 bedroom apartments for rental, part furnished for between £750 and £795pcm! Even giving the LL the benefit of the doubt, £795pcm / £228k is only a whopping 4.2%, way below even the BoE base rate.

    I thought I had it good renting a furnished 1 bed with water rates inc. for 4.9% of market price.

    Obviously the rumoured Plan A of letting them as holiday flats for £1000pw got washed away in the rain then?

    What times ahead?

    the 4.2% you quote will probably be a bout 3% in reality once fees/ voids and discounts are taken in - happy days - true value is probably around 175k to make this pay

  3. The Rightmove October report is out next Monday and is based on figures from yesterday. Will it confirm the drop in the market picked up last month? Will we get another leak before the weekend? :)

    difficult to say a lot of HIPS noise in the figs to darw any conclusion - though i suspect they will be slightly red neg 0.5ish

  4. so why do you think the older Btls would wnat to sell anyway?

    Flippers cant make money now, prices are liekyl to fall regardless of tax liability because of the JUST STARTING CREDIT CRUNCH- Its not going away tomorrow, or next month, and with all the CDOS created with OUR property, its going to get worse

    even if they have been at it for 10 years they have to pay 24% cgt this will drop to 18% in apri (a signifiacnat drop on a significant asset gain) - if hpi is falling then they would look to take their gains - if they all do it at the same time then HPC -

  5. Did anyone else see him on the news - telling it like it is. I can't remember what he said word for word but the thrust if it was that the problems that were threatening the US economy were even more extreme here in the UK ie reckless lending and a bursting housing bubble.

    on Ch4 news he said that hpi should be in the inflation basket - dont like that much with hpi now heading south

  6. Very possibly.

    But in the absence of any rental income, HMRC may open an Enquiry.

    If successful, interest and penalties could be levied in addition to any tax due.

    why do you need rental yeild to produce cap gains - if an asset goes up it is a cap gain - end of

  7. Exactly. This will make little difference to the housing bubble. In order to pay tax you need to make a profit. You can only make a profit if house prices rise. They've stopped rising.

    whilst what you say is true fro new btlers, a lot of older btlerse have made a lot of money and this will be their golden get out option and is the reason that this might work in our favour if hpi is neg til april - could spark a fire sale as btls flood the market in one go - it totally unedermines the "in it for the long term" mentality - the next few months are critical -

    as an asside you should see some holiday lets go cheapppp as they qualified for full business taper relief so will face an 80% cgt hike come april.

    this will be massive one way or the other (watch Brad and bing shares for clues) - whether its good or bad for hpcers i dont know

  8. You couldn't be more specific? I've read the section on cgt, but can't find the relevant points.

    uits the table at the bottom BTL qualifies for standard asset taper relief before today cgt was 24% if you held it for ten years 40% if less tahn 2 years - from april it is 18% for all (FFS!!!!)

  9. This is also my understanding....in other words it is bad news for us because it will encourage more BTLers to neter a lower CGT market, and as you say the rest of them will put their selling plans on hold until April.....

    Is there a good side to this - ie those waiting for the 10% threshold will sell earlier now? But 10% takes a number of years to reach...longer than the BTL bulge.

    This will halt BTL offloading or am I wrong? :angry:

    best case - will halt BTL offload til april then (if HPI down in mean time) a fire sale as the all rush for the exit at the same time = big HPC

    worst case - will halt BTL offload til april then (if HPI up in mean time) much more btl and short term property speculation = big HPI

    in summary the next few months are crucial!!!

  10. Bad news for HPCers but maybe good

    I think this is good news for BTLers (who got taper relief at 2% pa - going down to a minimum of 10% - so not many will loose out) and especially good for developers/flippers who now only pay 18% tax on their profits made over a few months rather than 40% (FFS) this makes it a bloody good sector to get into as you are effectively paying only 18% income tax with no NI to pay. Bad news for holiday home owners though who got 10%pa taper relief down to 10% minimum)

    This will reduce the supply of properties comming onto the market until april without doubt - but if HPI heads down over the next few months you could get a fire sale next april as BTLs unload on masse

    interesting times but on the whole i dont like it

  11. Looking at the news now, the stage is set for a significant downturn in the housing market
    • Mortgage rate sitting at well over 6%

    • Credit tightening and increased standards for lending

    • Large number of house being developed and on the market

    • Stagnant rents, well below costs for BTLers

    I have been on this forum for a good few months now, and i know that there are people who have been expecting a crash for years that has not come. I dont want to be sitting here 4 years down the road saying "next year, next year, next year"

    So i am now laying down the gauntlet, if we do not see significant falls in the next 6 months i am doubtful we will get 'the crash' that we are all looking (and hoping) for.

    What do you think

    i have been STR waiting for the crash since feb 05 - we've got all the ingredients you list above and weve had the trigger (NRock) - I am starting to see tentative fals on my patch and would expect to see this turn into real MOM negatives very shortly - if this hasnt happened by feb 08 then i will probably buy (probably) - if it has got going then i will be dancing with joy on the BTL/EA/VI scums grave!!!! bring on the HPC - history beckons

  12. yep. am one of those dastardly renters. do not have a mortgage. do not want a mortgage. do not have any savings to stress about either. be free. spend don't save. rent don't buy.

    this will be seen as words of wisdom in months/years to come - if all else fails the taxpayer will underwrite you anyway - be free - enjoy - you could be dead tommorrow http://www.jr2.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/band150/b150-5.html

  13. dare i say it - i think it has now turned - had a previous offer of 250 on a 275 asking accepted the other day (offer made in june - initially hardlined for 270) - i have walked away as seeing some decent reductions on other stuff i have been watching - any other plymothians care to comment

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