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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by ianbeale

  1. i am slightly more realistic about what may be achieved in GC2 a sthings stand - i expect a fall of 10-20% in real terms which will be attributed to the tighter lending conditions - if the economy goes tits up though then we can have a real party 30-40% (if you still have a job that is)
  2. sorry to put such a personnal call on the site - but can someone who knows a bit about IT please put the "Buy to Debt" programme on the web so that vista users can see it as bbc iplayer is non compatatble - you tube maybe?? i need my bear food!!!!
  3. news 24 have just said that the EAs have crushed the tesco property website because they dont offer full EA facilities - standards. Could have knock on implications for all private sale websites - more to follow on moneybox radio 4 at 12 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/moneybox/default.stm http://www.tescopropertymarket.com/Magazine/PressRelease
  4. http://www.uploadlibrary.com/rightmove/rightmovecensus.htm this surey is bit limp with no open text box - that bing said there is opportunity to say that prices will fall so its worth doing as this could be published to the sheeple - plus there are prizes too!!!
  5. the 4.2% you quote will probably be a bout 3% in reality once fees/ voids and discounts are taken in - happy days - true value is probably around 175k to make this pay
  6. i havnt got xp so it wont allow me to download iPlayer - can anyone help. Please!!!!!!!
  7. difficult to say a lot of HIPS noise in the figs to darw any conclusion - though i suspect they will be slightly red neg 0.5ish
  8. even if they have been at it for 10 years they have to pay 24% cgt this will drop to 18% in apri (a signifiacnat drop on a significant asset gain) - if hpi is falling then they would look to take their gains - if they all do it at the same time then HPC -
  9. could be but we need neg hpi til april to bring on the flood - otherwise it could encourage btl
  10. on Ch4 news he said that hpi should be in the inflation basket - dont like that much with hpi now heading south
  11. why do you need rental yeild to produce cap gains - if an asset goes up it is a cap gain - end of
  12. whilst what you say is true fro new btlers, a lot of older btlerse have made a lot of money and this will be their golden get out option and is the reason that this might work in our favour if hpi is neg til april - could spark a fire sale as btls flood the market in one go - it totally unedermines the "in it for the long term" mentality - the next few months are critical - as an asside you should see some holiday lets go cheapppp as they qualified for full business taper relief so will face an 80% cgt hike come april. this will be massive one way or the other (watch Brad and bing shares for clues) - whether its good or bad for hpcers i dont know
  13. they wont declare it as income - they will declare it as cap gains
  14. uits the table at the bottom BTL qualifies for standard asset taper relief before today cgt was 24% if you held it for ten years 40% if less tahn 2 years - from april it is 18% for all (FFS!!!!)
  15. http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/Invest...r-landlords.jsp
  16. best case - will halt BTL offload til april then (if HPI down in mean time) a fire sale as the all rush for the exit at the same time = big HPC worst case - will halt BTL offload til april then (if HPI up in mean time) much more btl and short term property speculation = big HPI in summary the next few months are crucial!!!
  17. Bad news for HPCers but maybe good I think this is good news for BTLers (who got taper relief at 2% pa - going down to a minimum of 10% - so not many will loose out) and especially good for developers/flippers who now only pay 18% tax on their profits made over a few months rather than 40% (FFS) this makes it a bloody good sector to get into as you are effectively paying only 18% income tax with no NI to pay. Bad news for holiday home owners though who got 10%pa taper relief down to 10% minimum) This will reduce the supply of properties comming onto the market until april without doubt - but if HPI heads down over the next few months you could get a fire sale next april as BTLs unload on masse interesting times but on the whole i dont like it
  18. i have been STR waiting for the crash since feb 05 - we've got all the ingredients you list above and weve had the trigger (NRock) - I am starting to see tentative fals on my patch and would expect to see this turn into real MOM negatives very shortly - if this hasnt happened by feb 08 then i will probably buy (probably) - if it has got going then i will be dancing with joy on the BTL/EA/VI scums grave!!!! bring on the HPC - history beckons
  19. this will be seen as words of wisdom in months/years to come - if all else fails the taxpayer will underwrite you anyway - be free - enjoy - you could be dead tommorrow http://www.jr2.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/band150/b150-5.html
  20. just a thought but could some of this 0.7 be due to more 4 beds being on the market during this selling period (HIPs again) ???
  21. dare i say it - i think it has now turned - had a previous offer of 250 on a 275 asking accepted the other day (offer made in june - initially hardlined for 270) - i have walked away as seeing some decent reductions on other stuff i have been watching - any other plymothians care to comment
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